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[paul8209]

Football League Trophy Crawley Town - Southend United

If United are committed to this tie, they should win and quite possibly with a degree of comfort. Town are struggling after relegation last seaon are yet to win at home and sit in 21st place in League 2, just three points off the bottom of the entire Football League, they have scored just 10 home goals (16 starts) in 2015 and are considered a bit of a soft touch at the Broadfield Stadium currently. They are coming off very lengthy trips to Newport and Plymouth last week and boss Mark Yates admitted that the league is their only priority. The club are now on limited resources, after being big spenders in recent years and it is always an issue when the money finally runs out, they were forced to try and bring in some bargain basement signings in the summer and they were trialling lots of players right through pre season.

Tonight they have Lanre Oyebanjo and Jon Ashton sidelined with injuries, Freddie Woodman (ever present goalkeeper) and Josh Yerworth are on international duty and Rhys Murphy is cup tied . That will mean a backline with probably an average age of 20 yo, with 19 yo goalkeeper Callum Preston making his debut behind them !

Southend are doing well in their first season back in League 1 and sit just two points off the playoff spots, they are coming off a 1-0 defeat at leaders Burton Albion at the weekend where they felt they were the better team and deserving of at least a point, infact, they were very angry that they lost. These are two teams very much heading in opposite directions and as I said at the start of these notes, the visitors should be able to ease home here if they are motivated and the loss at Burton should ensure they are and I simply cannot see Town being strong enough at the back to put up too much resistance.


Southend United -0.5 ball 1.97 asian line/Sportmarket.

from Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

[paul8209]

MLS: New York Red Bulls - Montreal Impact

I am not going to spend too long on this, if Red Bulls win, it will probably be along with a few goals and if not, they are as likely to lose as anything else, not that they have been particularly hit and miss this season, especially compared to previous campiagns, infact, they have been rather consistent, but when they are not firing, there has still been the odd real blip like the recent 5-2 home defeat to Orlando City.

Montreal are in the final play off spot in the East, but do have two games and one point in hand of the same said Orlando, who are the only team with a realistic chance of stopping Impact from taking that post season place, but the away team have posted just two away wins all season and have lost all four previous h2h meetings in the Big Apple, conceding at least four goals in three of them.

New York are top of the Eastern Conference and baring a 17 goal + swing (which isn't going to happen), would seal first place and #1 post season seed with all three points, it would also ensure they stayed ahead of FC Dallas (Western Conference) in the Supporters Shield race, which is the award for the team with the best MLS regular season record. so , every incentive for them.

Impact lost for the fisrt time in seven starts under interim boss Mauro Biello , who took over from Frank Klopas at the end of August, away to Orlando at the weekend in a 2-1 defeat. Star player Didier Drogba only saw 30 minutes from the bench in what I read was his first ever game on "Turf", playmaker Ignaccio Piatti again missed out, he did return from Argentina on Monday and trained yesterday, but he is not certain to be ready to start. They are also dealing with some injuries and have seven players away on international duty , of which I would probably only call two regular starters, but it greatly reduces options and if Piatti is unavailable and it is hard to see how he can be up to playing 90 minutes, they are going to be very short of creative flair with Johan Venegas away with Costa Rica.

NYRB have players away with national teams too, but do not seem so hard hit and with better alternatives and I am also "keen" on the fact that Impact are 0-1-6 in their next away start after a road turf game and have conceded 11 goals in losing the last four (2+ in each).

New York Red Bulls -1 goal 2.09 asian line/Sportmarket.

from Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

[paul8209]

European Qualifiers England -Estonia

England have dominated this group and are a perfect 8 from 8 so far, scoring 26 goals, at least two in each of seven, only coming up short in the reverse fixture between these two in Tallinn, when they had to wait a long time to score the winning goal. That is par for the course for England in this group stage, with just three of those 26 goals coming inside the first 30 minutes, with nine in the middle third of the game and 14 in the final half hour. Under Roy hodgson they have looked to play themselves into games before really pushing on, big gulf in class of course and whilst England have already qualified, they will get crucified in the media if they do not beat "little old" Estonia and I am sure that they would like to finish with a 10/10 record. The match is not a sell out, but a crowd of 75,000 is expected and will be demanding of a result, offensively the visitors do not offer much and they have not scored on the road in a group game and only twice in nine competitive away starts.However, they are tight at the back (just six goals conceded in qualification) and will come very much with damage limitation in mind and looking to keep England at bay for as long as possible. Home win of course and they should be up to definitely a second and probably a third goal, but let's wait and hold out for a better quote, if England score before that , no damage done ! Pitch might also be a bit of a leveller, as there have been rugby and NFL games played on the hallowed turf in recent weeks, but in the end it should not matter too much.

England -2 goals as soon as the "in running" line reaches a minimum quote of 2.0 (as long as they are not already leading).

from Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

[IceFudge]

England would've scored more if not for Estonia's keeper, who was in top form.

Euro qualifiers - Double chance Czech Republic or Draw looks like a great option at 1.42 on bet365.
English League 1 - Barnsley (home) vs bottom-of-the-table Crewe. Barnsley or Draw at 1.17

[paul8209]

MLS: FC Dallas- Vancouver Whitecaps

MLS: FC Dallas- Vancouver Whitecaps

These two met last week in Vancouver, the match was a bit of a bore and ended 0-0 with injury hit Whitecaps earning the point they needed to secure a post season spot and FCD happy to play along. That will not be the case today, the winner will go top of the Western Conference and that has huge, playoff implications. Actually, a point would be enough for Dallas, but they really want that #1 ranking and any advantage they can get over Galaxy, who have beaten them in five straight meetings in LA.Therefore, we can expect them to push for the win and they are a perfect 6-0-0 at home to Whitecaps.

The visitors arrive very short handed, missing attacking midfielders Pedro Morales and Nicolas Mezquida who are both injured, fellow offensive players Mauro Rosales and Cristian Techera and centre back Pa-Modou Kah picked up knocks in the last game and are listed as doubts, with Vancouver having one eye on the playoffs, in addition, Kendall Waston is away with Costa Rica, Darren Mattocks with Jamaica, Marco Bustos, Kianz Froese, and Sam Adekugbe with Canada and Caleb Clarke (Canada U-23 national team) and all six saw game time yesterday. Head coach Carl Robinson talking about who saw available said that "if they could walk, they were on the plane" and this is going to be a very tall order for them. Seven of the players named above would be termed regulars and have contributed 48% of all goals scored this season, one or two might make it, but they are definitely without much of their creative spark.

FC Dallas -0.75 ball 2.16 asian line/Sportmarket.

from Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

[paul8209]

Brazil Serie A Corinthians - Goias 15.10

A win for Atletico Mineiro last night saw them close to within two points of Corinthians at the top of the table and the leaders will want to extend that back up to five by following suit this evening. The top two will have clear priorities ahead of their meeting in Belo Horizonte in 17 days time, AMG will be looking to reduce the deficit to three or less, Corinthians will want to make the trip with as big an advantage as possible, but definitely 4 points +, which would take the pressure off that potentially title deciding game.

The hosts have been very solid against bottom ten teams, posting a 7-0-0 record at home with a 16-1 goal difference, winning five by 2+ goals, on the road they are 5-3-0 versus the same teams and remember how difficult it is to win away in Brazil, that means that they have collected 2.6 pts per game when playing any bottom ten side and are keeping a clean sheet in 67% of those meetings. Gois are in trouble, two points from safety, they are not yet a lost cause, as the four teams directly above them are all within three points, they are going to have to up their game , but I doubt it will be in fixtures like this, or Sunday's trip to Santos which will ultimately decide their fate, but how they fare against the other strugglers and in all home starts from now on in. Corinthians have scored five goals in two of the last three h2h meetings in SP and whilst that might not be possible this evening, I do expect another two goal win . Since early June when Corinthians hit their stride, they are 8-1-0 next time out when coming off a draw or defeat , they get a couple of defenders back tonight who were not available for the 2-2 draw at Ponte Preta last time out and it is difficult to see Goias stopping another bounce back performance. Also returning from international duty and named as starters are Gil and Renato Augusto, they should have been three up at PP before some very sloppy and un-Corinthians like defending let the home side take the lead and we can expect a far more professional and disciplined showing this evening and with so many more options, a comfortable win.

Corinthians -1.25 ball 2.25 asian line/Sportmarket.

from Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

[paul8209]

Brazil Serie A : Santos - Goias

Goias lost 3-0 at leaders Corinthians and Santos were edged out 1-0 at Gremio, continuing their away day woes.

Not an awful lot to add really. Trips to Corinthians and Santos are tough for anyone, let alone back to back inside three days and should be too much for one of the poorer sides in the league, especially when they will be facing a home side desperate to claim back their hard earned top 4 ranking. Santos' road form leaves a lot to be desired, but they are 12-2-1 on home soil and have, incredibly, scored at least three goals in their last seven home starts and have averaged 2.47 per game in all league home games.The hosts are without a couple of suspended players, including 8 goal teenage striker Gabriel, but they still have massive offensive threat, not least through Serie A's top scorer Ricardo Oliveira (see below) and their absences mean that we get a decent quote today and with huge motivation, I cannot see Goias stalling the Copa Libertadores push from Santos, who have named a squad with only three points in mind..

Santos:Vanderlei , Vladimir, Daniel Guedes, Zeca , Chiquinho, Werley, Leonardo , Paulo Ricardo, Renato, Thiago Maia, Lucas Lima, Marquinhos Gabriel, Leandrinho, Serginho, Ledesma, Vitor Bueno , Léo Cittadini, Ricardo Oliveira, Geuvânio, Neto Berola, Leandro, Nilson, Marquinhos.

Santos -1.25 ball2.28 asian line/Sportmarket.

from Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

[paul8209]

England Championship Rotherham - Reading

Neil Redfearn has a big task to try and keep the Millers in the Championship, I saw his debut as boss at the weekend , a 2-1 feat at Griffin Park to the mighty Bees and on this occasion the league table doesn't lie and they are the weakest tean I have seen in the second tier this season and by quite some way. Previous bos Steve Evans has always had a revolving door policy of players at the club and another huge number of summer signings means a lack of cohesion (second fewest competed passes in the division) and no real planning, bringing in 15-16 players every off season is so very hit and miss and whilst it worked in L2 and L1, it didn't last season in the Championship and United were fortunate to survive, Evans said he would do things differently this time round, but like a teenager addicted to Ebay, he could not resist the lure and was busy oiling those revolving doors almost as soon as the 2014-15 campiagn ended !

So a lot of work for Redfearn to do and what he could really do with is some time and the matches are coming too thick and fast for that, he could also do without a lengthy injury list, which has meant he had to dip into the loan market yesterday and bring yet another player into the club and on top of everything else, the Millers have their biggest game of the season in three days time, when huge local rivals Sheffield Wednesday, who one United fan told me on Saturday that "they are the only club we really hate", visit the New York Stadium for a televised fixture. As a born and bred Yorkshireman, Redfearn will know all about that and as a club, United will have one eye on that fixture.

Latest injury for them came to left back Joe Mattock who left the field late on Saturday, he was one of their more impressive defenders and although the Millers have been conceding at the rate of almost two per game, they have given up "just" 1.25 pg in the eight he has started, 3.67 in the three he has sat out. Reading are strong on the flanks, tight defensively (no team has conceded fewer goals) and will almost certainly stay in the automatic promotion places with all three points. Steve Clarke has used the off season well and has got the Royals so much better organised this season and can use his bigger and much less injury hit squad to good advantage in this quick turnaround.

Reading -0.75 ball 2.28 asian line/Sportmarket.

from Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

[paul8209]

France Ligue2 Brest - Valenciennes 23.10

Valenciennes remain without Roudet and Kabore, they do get Ciss and Diarra back, but that is immediately offset by the loss of Edouard Butin and Da Costa and their three goals will be missed amongst a team who have scored just twice in six starts and none at all in almost 400 minutes of football . Confidence is at a very low ebb and Brest is never an easy place to come looking to restore it. Brest will be buoyed by two goals and a cleansheet at Creteil last Friday and whilst that had much to do with their opponents injury woes, they will take heart from that and also that they hit top form at this stage of last season, going 14 games unbeaten in the build up to Christmas, keeping 11 clean sheets. Only change for them from last week is the absence of fringe forward Alexandre Alphonse, which is not an issue. They travel to leaders Dijon next week and will be very focused on the three points today to stay in touch with the top three and take as much pressure as possible off the trip to Burgundy.

Brest: Hartock, Léon - Belaud, Falette, Brillault, Lorenzi, Keïta - Pelé, Sankoh, Jacob, Grougi, Battocchio, Tié Bi - Koubemba, Sea, Joseph-Monrose, Adnane.

Valenciennes: Charruau, Perquis - Abdelhamid, Aloé, Ciss, Nery, Nestor - Baradji, Diarra, Enza-Yamissi, Fulgini, Mbenza, Tameze - Ndao, Nguette, Slidja.

Brest -0.75 ball 2.25 asian line/Sportmarket.

from Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

[paul8209]

France Ligue 1: Gazelec Ajaccio-Nice

France Ligue 1: Gazelec Ajaccio-Nice

I spoke ahead of their home game with Nantes early this month about the huge number of goals in Nice matches and at both ends of the pitch .....

"I am not going to waste too long on this, Nice are on fire with 13 goals in their last three starts, including seven on the road to Bastia and St Etienne, those are big numbers in any top league, but especially in France. They are not going to suddenly go into their shell in front of their own supporters and Nantes I feel are a little more offensive minded than they tend to show and might not need too much encouragement to get drawn forward themselves and they will certainly have space to exploit when they do, with Nice without a clean sheet in 14, or in ten home starts. Goals !"

Incredibly, that match was 2-2 at the break, when it was then abandoned , which in Nice of all places, was a little hard to take !

However, that and the international break did not make Nice break stride , if anything it made them even more hungry and in their only start since, they won 4-1 away to highflying Rennes last weekend . That makes four straight wins and with a 17-4 goal difference and remember, this is Ligue 1 ! They will today be once again without their two first choice goalkeepers, which will mean a second outing for 21yo Yoan Cardinale who made his debut last week, but this is not a team who will be looking to defend too much in any case and they have only boarded the plane to Corsica with thoughts of how many goals they will score.

The hosts know they have to start winning here on the island if they are to have any chance of survival, three points might well be enough to take them out of the drop zone and they will be very focused on back to back home games to end this month , but I suspect they need to score twice to get anything from this, they are not going to keep Nice out for 90 minutes and Gazelec can play their part in what seems sure to be another wide open encounter.

over 2.5 goals 2.17 asian line/Sportmarket.

from Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

[paul8209]

France Coupe de la Ligue Evian - Laval

Evian's last three fixture have been perhaps their three most open games of the season, with both teams scoring in each and all going "over", this hardly seems like the competition or time to go back into their shell. Laval are not exactly known for the open nature of their play, but their last two road games in this competition have produced six goals and they have both scored and conceded in four of their last five Ligue 2 starts, with all producing at least two goals. Only four recent h2h meetings between these two, but an average of 4.25 goals and all went"over". It is normally the "less adventurous" side who decide how these matches are played out and that would be the visitors in this case, Laval have travelled with a bigger squad than usual, which normally means rotation, but they have made the trip with all their experienced, regular starters and look to be treating this very seriously. Hosts have named 20 for today, so, expect quite a few changes, they are without key defensive midfielder Yeltsin Tejeda, last four starts he has missed have averaged 3.75 goals and they are without a clean sheet in seven in his absence.

Evian: Leroy, Durand - Abdallah, Angoula, Betao, Appindangoye, Soares, Centonze, Sorlin, Campanharo, N'Dao, Kamin, Hoggas, Abarouaï, Sanson, Barbosa, N'Gakoutou, Bruno, Keita, Altolaguirre.

Laval: Maxime Hautbois, Lionel Cappone, Kévin Perrot, Erwan Quintin, Djibril Konaté, Fouad Chafik, Adrien Monfray, Malik Couturier, Nordi Mukiele, Alassane N'Diaye, Romain Habran, Hassane Alla, César Zeoula, Anthony Gonçalves, Chris Malonga,Duckens Nazon, Julien Viale, Rachid Alioui.

over 2.25 goals 2.01 asian line/Sportmarket.

from Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

[paul8209]

France Ligue2 Creteil - Nimes

It will surprise few regular readers that i expect to see goals in this fixture. We have discussed Creteil and their approach to games so many times in recent seasons and a bit of a blip last year aside, they play as open a style as you could ever wish to see, certainly in Ligue 2 terms.

Last round Creteil won 2-1 and landed the "over" bet and also took the big odds win, if anyone chose to go down that route . Those points got them back up to within four of the promotion spots and they will surely be looking for a maximum return today. Nimes are bottom of the table and cast adrift due to their eight point deduction and draw after draw (at home) is not going to help, we have spoken many time previously about them being far more adventurous than their reputation suggets and they will go toe to toe with any opponent who is willing to play similarly, step forward Creteil ! Nimes have both scored and conceded in their last five starts and two goals in recent outings again Nancy and Metz (road) show that they can put up goals against the better teams in this league. At least one goal for both and I expect each to press hard for a winner.

Créteil : Kerboriou, Merville - Di Bartolomeo, Diedhiou, Hérelle, Ilunga - Augusto, Benaniba, Bourgeois, Dias, Lafon, Lesage, Mollet, Sangaré - Andriatsima, Dabo.

Nîmes : Michel, Gallon - Cordoval, Barrillon, Elie, Harek, Valls, Guihoata, Hermach, Savanier, Lacourt, Maoulida, Koura, Mounié, Tchenkoua, Chamed.

over 2.5 goals 2.11 asian line/Sportmarket.

from Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

[paul8209]

Brazil Serie A: Santos - Palmeiras

Brazil Serie A: Santos - Palmeiras

Santos progressed to the final of the Copa do Brasil (beating Sao Paulo 3-1 in the semi final home leg, winning both legs by that scoreline actually), that now means that they have now scored an incredible three goals or more in NINE straight home games ! I guess that sequence will end soon, but I am not so sure it will be today, with Palmeiras having conceded eght in their last three road games and having played out a very tense Copa semi final of their own in midweek, seeing off Fluminense on penalties. Flu dominated that game after the break, pulled a goal back to level things on aggregate and had another disallowed and felt very hard done by, after creating three times as many attempts on goal as Palmeiras. So these two will meet in the cup final over two legs around the turn of this month, but that feels a long way off and this is far from a dress rehearsal with 4th place and a Copa Libertadores spot to play for. Palm need a win and nothing else to get back into contention for that, three points would see Santos back in pole position. I do not know what happens if Santos finish fourth, if Pameiras would get the "other" Copa place regardless, or would it go to 5th in the league, I tried to find out quickly this morning but ran out of time. If that was the case, then conspiracy theorists would argue that losing today would give them a better (double chance) of making the international competition. I will find out before writing again about these two, for now we can consider it a potential "bonus".

Readless of which, Santos seem irresistable on home soil right now and had a training run out in midweek, whilst Palmeiras had a battle ! Santos to record a seventh straight home win over the visitors.

Santos -0.75 ball 2.20 asian line/Sportmarket.

from Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

[paul8209]

England Championship Derby County - QPR

I was not terribly impressed by Rangers on Friday night, they did hit the woodwork twice, but neither attempt look like it was going in, a bit of a looping head dipped at the last moment and caught the top of the bar, a shot that looked to be going wide just clipped the outside of the post, at least that is how I saw things through my rose tinted ( red and white ?) glasses ! Those aside, they created nothing at all, their build up play was poor and to be honest, a little clueless at times with no game plan and very little passion. I do not like highlighting coaches in trouble, but have now done it twice in this email and if Chris Ramsey is still in charge at Christmas, he will have done well and I will be surprised. The amazing thing is that QPR are the third worst passing team in the Championship, it is incredble as they play so many aimless sideways balls, so my instinct would be that those stats should be "good" and that they are bad, has got a lot of alarm bells ringing in my head !. Defender Clint Hill was one of the few to show any passion, but even as he left the field limping with a knock, I heard one wag say "that was the fastest he had moved all night", he is missing tonight and there are very few positives in this team right now. Rangers have conceded 13 goals in the last six matches Hill has sat out, including six in the last two on the road and this match has the potential to get ugly !

After the last home game vs Wolverhampton (4-2) I wrote "that they looked very good at times, but I would argue nowhere near their peak and it is a little scary to think of the offensive threat they pose and the damage they could and will cause, once they really hit their stride."

Derby won last round 3-0 and it could easily have been five or six goals and afterwards boss Paul Clement said:"I am learning about my players all the time. "They are showing so many different qualities now, whether it be the team spirit or dealing with different styles of football."The momentum is really building and we are enjoying the way we are playing and we are full of confidence.

They will be without George Thorne tonight after he picked up a fifth yellow card, but this is a very strong squad, highlighted by Bryson, Hendrick and Bent coming off the bench at the weekend and you would struggle to find another second tier team for whom that trio would not all start. If Rangers play like they did on Friday and judging by comments on their forums that was a typical recent performance and County play even close to their usual standard, the visitors "cannot" win this. To get a result, they need to greatly improve and County have an off night and it is hard to see either happening right now.

Derby County -1 ball 2.26 asian line/Sportmarket.

from Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

[paul8209]

Champions League Olympiakos - Dinamo Zagreb


Olympiakos have put themselves in a strong position to qualify behind Bayern Munich in this group and if they win tonight, might even be able to do so with a narrow loss a home to Arsenal on Matchday 6. They won on the road against the Gunners and in Zagreb two weeks ago in a hard fought 1-0 win, that has put Dinamo under pressure and they will have to look for the win this evening . I spoke ahead of their maych with Arsenal about how the lack of domestic competition worked against Dinamo in the CL and whilst they won that game, they rode their luck at times and have failed to score, conceding six in two CL starts since. Infact, this is a club in "crisis" having just lost back to back league games, which has had the stats men searching through the record books to find out the last time that happened ! They were unbeaten last season and were 51-19-2 over the previous two years, until the first of those recent defeats . They have a host of injuries to key players and have travelled with confidence at a very low ebb and if they fall behind tonight, a collapse like we saw in Munich (four goals conceded in 15 minutes) is not out of question.

Olympiakos -1.5 ball 2.28 asian line/Sportmarket.

from Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi