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[paul8209]

France Ligue2 Clermont - Creteil

This will surprise few of you ....... I am sticking with the "over" in a Creteil game. Creteil lost 2-1 last week , that meant 8 "overs" in 10 starts, with all those games averaging 3.1 goals with gung-ho Creteil only keeping a clean sheet in one and either scoring or conceding twice in nine. Clermont have also been involved in some free scoring games, with their last ten starts producing a goal more (32), with seven "overs" and both teams scoing in nine. As a starting point it doesn't get much better than that and when we add into the mix how Creteil play, meaning we know that those numbers are not a blip, but what we should expect , there remains value in the quote for this to again produce three or more goals.

Hosts are weakened on the right flank today by injury and suspension, Creteil are missing central defender Vincent DI Bartolomeo, both to score looks a given and it is hard to see either being happy with just that.......

Clermont : Jeannin, Caillard - Avinel, Djellabi, Martin, Rivieyran, Salze - Boulaya, Ekobo, Espinosa, Genest, Hunou, Jobello, Reale - F.Diedhiou, Dugimont, Rivas.

Créteil : Kerboriou, Merville - Diedhiou, Esor, Hérelle, Ilunga, Mahon de Monaghan - Augusto, Bourgeois, Lafon, Loriot, Lesage, Mollet, Sangaré - Andriatsima, Dabo.

over 2.75 goals 2.38 asian line/Sportmarket.

from Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

[paul8209]

MLS Cup playoffs: New York Red Bulls - DC United

New York were the best regular season team in the MLS, clinching the Supporters Shield with a final day regular season win at Chicago Fire. my notes for which are reproduced at the foot of this email and they also include a few remarks on DCU who had played Fire the week before. They won the first leg 1-0 and will progress tonight with a draw of course, by the way, the away goal rule applies to all play off games (but not after extra time), but I do not see this playing out that closely and I expect a relatively easy win for the home team. United will have to gamble for the win and take chances and that will allow space for Red Bulls to exploit and I can see a scenario where DCU let this slide if and when they fall behind tonight. NYRB have won the last five h2h meetings in the Big Apple, the last four without conceding , including two this year (2-0/3-0) and at a time when DCU were in much better form, United having ended the season, that win over Fire aside, meekly. These two ended the regular season separated by 9 points across 34 games, but there was a 19 point swing over the second half of the campaign ( 17 games) and NY have been the better side by far for four months.

New York Red Bulls -1.25 goals 2.07 asian line/Sportmarket.

from Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

[paul8209]

World Cup Qualifiers Ecuador- Uruguay

I doubt many would have thought these two would come into this game with six points each on board. Ecuador have posted back to back 2-0 wins over Argentina and Bolivia with all four goals coming after the 82nd minute and given that and the fact that a draw would not be a terrible result for them, plus second top scorer Enner Valencia is missing, they might be content to play a cagey game through the opening period. Uruguay have posted wins over Bolivia in the high altitude of La Paz, which at 3,640 m above sea level makes tonight's game in Quito ( 2,850m) nothing to fear and then a demolition of Columbia, by a combined 5-0.

In addition to their striker, Ecuador will be without his namesake, Antonio Valencia tonight, he was the star man in both opening wins , he played with huge confidence in Buenos Aires and will be sorely missed tonight. The host have a win-able game in Venezuela in midweek and 4 points from these two would be fantastic and two not a disaster, I feel they will be very cautious early and that should allow Uruguay to get a toehold in the game, the visitors would love a point as it would take all the pressure off them ahead of the visit from Chile on Tuesday and I think that Uruguay and the handicap start is the way to go.The fact that they beat Columbia 3-0 without not just Luiz Suarez , but also Edinson Cavani (who returns tonight) is terrific for the future of Uruguayan football and this tiny nation looks to have another fine crop of players coming through with 9-10 youngsters (sub 23 yo ) named in the last two squads, most of whom are already with "big" clubs and they look a potential fast improver .

Uruguay +0.25 ball 2.29 asian line/Sportmarket.

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England League 1 Colchester United vs Coventry City

I spoke a lot early season about how gung-ho United were and they have returned to those free and easy ways recently, with four of their last six starts producing five or more goals, with two having eight, they have conceded two or more on five occasions in that sequence. City have conceded two or more in each of their last four, games which have averaged 4.75 goals, including a home loss to lower league Northampton Town last weekend. Two of those other games were against teams in freefall who cannot buy a win and it is hard not to see them giving up a couple today against a host who have a host of offensive options, but are very vulnerable at the other end of the pitch. United look to have unearthered a natural goalscorer in young striker Macauley Bonne, who only turned 20 at the end of last month and celebrated with four goals in the FA Cup last week and playing alongside a still only 24yo Marvin Sordell who is looking to resurrect his career after a series of big money Championship moves, this looks a potent and fast improving pairing. Goals !

over 3 goals 2.17 asian line/Sportmarket.

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International Friendly: Turkey vs Greece

Big rivalry between these two nations, both have a bit of a reputation for perhaps not always giving of their best in friendly matches, but we can expect the competitive juices to be flowing tonight. However, Greece really are in a bit of a mess, failed to qualify fairly miserably for Euro 2016, finishing bottom of a group containing the Faroe Islands and no major footballing "giant" and failing to score in six of ten, including four home games. They have posted just one win in the last 12 months and even managed to concede three goals in that victory, they are coming off a 1-0 defeat to Luxembourg on Friday and rivalry or not, I still think it will be very difficult for them to suddenly find form and to lift their game. Turkey qualified for the Euros as the best third placed team after looking in big trouble early in qualification, but they have played solidly over the last year, through which they are unbeaten through ten starts (eight wins), including taking four points from the Netherlands, winning in the Czech Republic and perhaps most importantly for us today, winning all three friendly matches.

This match will have special importance for Terim, he has been wildly successful on the domestic and world stage and was given the honour of having a stadium named after him last year, the Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, guess where this is being played ? He will lead a team out in the stadium named after him for the first time and surely he will have his troops extra pumped for this match against a real rival. If it was me, I would really want to win this and it feel like a lot of additional motivation and in friendly matches that is always a bonus. Turkey to end the year unbeaten and with a two goal win.

Turkey -0.75 ball 2.06 asian line/Sportmarket.

from Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

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Brazil Serie A Goias - Coritiba

Goias are only ahead of Coritiba on goal difference and the truth is that it is going to be very tough for either team to survive without winning this game and especially Goias who have two really difficult looking road games up next, but neither seems capable of keeping a clean sheet and they will have to step up offensively to earn the three points. Both teams have seen 5 of their last six starts produce at least three goals and neither has a kept a clean sheet in seven, the reverse fixture ended 1-1 and both to score is the minimum I can see from this, but they each need more. I am not overly concerned with team news at this time of the season, but Coritiba have named quite an adventurous looking squad and the got a major boost with the news that top scorer Henrique Almeida is now available to play, four of his last six goals have come on the road and I slightly favour his team to edge this , let's say 1-2, but I feel there is better value on goals.

Eight of the last nine h2h meetings here in Goiania have gone "over", the other ended 1-1 and Coritiba have scored in eight of those, twice in four. Goais have scored in in 10 of 11 h2h games home and away, notching two or more in seven.

Goias: Paulo Henrique , Renan, Everton, Gimenez , Rafael Forster,Alex Alves, Felipe Macedo , Fred, David, Juliano, Patrick , Ygor, Arthur, Felipe Menezes , William Kozlowski, Bruno Henrique, Carlos Eduardo, Erik, Ruan , Zé Love.

Coritiba: Vaná , Wilson,Carlinhos, Juan, Juninho, Leandro Silva, Luccas Claro, Rodrigo Ramos , Walisson Maia,Alan Santos, Cáceres, Esquerdinha, João Paulo, Lucio Flávio, Ruy, Thiago Galhardo , Thiago Lopes,Guilherme Parede, Henrique Almeida, Michel, Negueba , Rafhael Lucas.

over 2.25 goals 2.16 asian line/Sportmarket

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France Ligue2 Creteil - Nancy

We have discussed Creteil's style of play many times in recent seasons and much of that is covered in my preview of their game with Nimes at the end of last month which is reproduced below the "good luck" sign off. That finished in a 2-1 win for Nimes, Creteil have had 8 "overs" in 11 starts, conceded in ten, with all matches in that sequence averaging 2.91 goals and have either scored or conceded twice in nine .They come into this match on the back of two defeats and are looking to get back into the promotion race, but do not look strong enough a group for that and I suspect long term ambition remain mid table safety and getting to the required 42-45 points, that will guarantee survival, as soon as possible. They are missing 4-5 starters tonight and are short on the flanks, especially the left, with Augusto, Diedhiou, Konogo, Dabo, Clemence and Sangaré all absent and protection for the full backs will be an issue.

Nancy have won five of their last six starts in all competitions and having a much stronger start to this season than in recent campaigns, will be very pleased with the way things have gone and probably consider themselves title favourites. They have very few injury problems and are close to full strength, but head coach Pablo Correa said that if any player came to him and said he did not feel ready to play, he would be happy with that and view it as the player showing "strength and not weakness" and it should be remembered that this is being played in the suburbs of Paris, anyway, at present it looks like no one has stepped forward to opt out. Correa did say his team had prepared as normal and his coaching staff had done the same level of analysis (more, as there was a break) as usual.

Also, and I think this is key, Nancy have actually played since the attacks last Friday,playing a friendly in Alsace on Saturday (strong starting 11, with maybe 8 from that game set to start this evening), so unlike almost every other French team, they have got over the psychological hurdle of getting back to business, which could hand them a massive edge this evening. I do feel they will win and have decided to include them giving up the bigger handicap, in a split stake bet.

Créteil : Kerboriou, Merville, Di Bartolomeo Esor, Hérelle, Ilunga, Mahon de Monaghan, Dias, Lafon, Loriot, Lesage, Mollet, Montaroup, Andriatsima, Bourgeois, Sackho.

Nancy : Ndy Assembe, Samba, Cétout, Cuffaut, Chrétien, Muratori, Lenglet, Badila, Walter, Guidileye, Aït Bennasser, Iglesias, Puyo, Dalé, Lusamba, Hadji, Robic, Busin.


Nancy -0.75 ball 2.36 asian line/Sportmarket.

over 2.5 goals 2.33 asian line/sportmarket.

from Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

[paul8209]

Premier League Bournemouth - Everton

I am a little surprised that Bournemouth have struggled so much, also that they did not get more involved in the transfer and then loan market once the injuries started to pile up. They are still missing a whole host of players and have only posted a single victory since August and now find tehmselves in the bottom three. Perhaps, more importantly, they have lost their way and are not playing with the same freedom we saw from them in L1 and the Championship and whilst that might be down to the crowded treatment room and quality of opposition, they really ought to get back to what they do best, which is all out attacking football and although we saw glimpses of it at Swansea last week, the Cherries seem a little timid , immediately go into their shell and more defensive once they concede and that is not really them and hardly plays to their strengths. Two were quickly conceded at the Liberty, one became four before the break and then five at Manchester City and it was three inside 30 mins and once again then five when Tottenham visited recently, they are nine without a clean sheet and it is difficult to see them keeping out the Toffees for too long today. Everton will have very positive memories of their most recent trip to the South Coast and their 3-0 win at Southampton and we spoke ahead of their last away start, of the huge threat that Romelu Lukaku and the Toffees pose and you can read those notes in full, below the "good luck" sign off.

Everton had to settle for a point in a 1-1 draw, Lukaku for a single goal, it should have been two for him and a win for the visitors, but they have since beaten Villa 4-0 with a brace of goals from the Belgian striker and he is going to be very tough to stop today, all Everton's goals this season have come from open play, which augurs well with the Cherries natural instinct to attack and struggles once they concede. The visitors might also have more threat from set pieces with the return to the squad of Leighton Baines for the first time this season. easy to see goals in this game too, but the goal line quotes look about right, Lukaku is still underrated and odds for him in the anytime goalscorer market still look too big at circa 2.30-2.50 (1.25 units), but for my main bet it has to be the visitors , who could move up into Champions League place contention with all three points. Five of their remaining 2015 league starts are against teams between 10th-19th place and they have a real opportunity to enter the new year on a high.

Everton -0.25 ball 2.26 asian line/Sportmarket

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France Ligue2 Bourg en Bresse Peronnas 01- Chamois Niortais

BEBP played out an incredibly open game at Metz on Friday, which I discussed in today's first preview, they could/perhaps should have scored 2-3 goals themselves , they had put four past Paris in their previous start and only leaders Dijon have scored more goals and the hosts clearly pose a big offensive threat. However, at the other end of the pitch ............oh dear ! They have conceded a league high 29 goals and it is so easy to see why, five could so easily have been 7-8 versus Metz and some of their defensive play there was shambolic and if poor defending was a crime the entire backline would have been in court this week !

It will have been difficult to sort all those issues out with the quick turnaround, but I doubt they want to change too much in any case and seen happy with their open, free and easy ways and they are certainly fun to watch ! I have mentioned many times that Niort play a more open style themselves than they are usually given credit for and if teams open up and are prepared to go toe to toe with them, they will usually follow suit, we have not seen too much of that approach from them on the road this season, but they have scored in five of their last six away starts and all of those came against teams set up more defensively than BEBP and the visitors can play their part in an open encounter. Both to score seems almost a given, odds of 1.83 + for that are pretty good, but below my personal "minimum" and I much prefer goals

Bourg-en-Bresse : Callamand, Fabri - Alphonse, Perradin, Berthomier, Boujedra, Boussaha, N'Simba, Sane, Nirlo, Traore, Dimitriou, Ogier, Dembele, Damour, Ba.

Niort : Delecroix, Allagbe - Lahaye, Sans, Choplin, Kiki, Bong - Koukou, Roye, Djigla, Rocheteau, Tigroudja, Sambia - Dona Ndoh, Bassock, Koné.

over 2.5 goals 2.21 asian line/Sportmarket

from Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

[paul8209]

Championship: Ipswich Town - Middlesbrough

Big game for both , Town can move into the play off places, at least for 24 hours with a point and Boro would go top, with all three.

Ipswich are in their best form of the season, are unbeaten in six, scoring 12 goals in their last four (three wins) and are very tough to beat on home soil, 3-5-1 this season and they collected a Championship high 50 points here last season, which included a 2-0 defeat of Middlesbrough, infact, Boro have lost on their last three visits, all by 2+ goals and have not posted a win at portman Road in more than 20 years. The Tractor Boys have drawn too many games here this season, but only Burnley have won and a point in this fixture is almost always seen as one earned and not two lost by Championship clubs. Boro are well aware of how tough this will be and doubly so as they played a Capital One Cup game with Everton in midweek, they rotated quite heavily for that, but eight players featured in both the cup tie and the win at Huddersfield last weekend and a third really taxing game inside seven days is going to be a big ask for some and I really do not see why Boro should be favourites to win this. I have already seen Ipswich at Griffin Park this season, they were big, strong, well organised, exactly how they and any team managed by Mick McCarthy always are and despite that being the opening day of the season, it was already fairly clear that they would again be in and around the playoffs. However, as I mentioned earlier this week, it is going to be tough for any of the teams outside the top five to break into that elite group and if clubs do not simply want to be playing for one remaining post season place, they can afford few slip ups and have to make the most of home games against teams above them in the table and that makes this game hugely important for Town. Boro are a bit physical on the road, but those tactics will not work against Ipswich and I have to side with the hosts, with the draw no bet safeguard.

Ipswich Town level ball 2.02 asian line/Sportmarket.

There is one major concern and that is David Nugent is now a Boro player following his move from Leicester City in the summer and he simply loves to play against Town, with a whopping 14 goals in his last 13 matches against them for City, Preston and Portsmouth (remember them ?) , if that was not impressive enough, he has scored in a perfect 7/7 visits tp Portman Road, nine goals in total and no prizes for guessing that he nominates it as his favourite away ground. He was one of those rested in midweek and if Boro are to score this evening, the goal(s) seems as likely to come via him as anyone else

Daryl Murphy has six goals in his last three league games for Ipswich, after failing to score in his first 13 and you know that I love a striker in form, he was top Championship scorer last season with 27 goals, six more than anyone else, including the opener in this fixture last season and his earlier drought was simply a blip and recent Town opponents are paying the price.

Nugent and Murphy are both circa 2.80-3.10 general quote in the anytime goalscorer markets and both are probably a little on the big side at the upper end given those stats, especially Murphy, who is the focus of so much of what Town do offensively and he has averaged far better than a goal every two games for the last 16 months, despite a 13 match fry spell, which is incredible (0.67 goals per game otherwise).

Taking either would be fine, but Town will be looking for Murphy at every opportunity and if you can find 2.875-3.10 I would suggest 1 unit....there is 3.30 on Betfair sportsbook btw.

from Sports betting Advice Service Clubgowi

[paul8209]

Premier League Swansea City - Leicester City

The visitors continue on their merry way and I doubt they would have been too disappointed with a home point against Manchester United last week, despite having the better of the clear goalscoring opportunities. They were happy to sit back, give United as much possession as they wanted and hit them on the break, tactics which are , of course, ideal for playing on the road and it is no coincidence that they have scored more goals away from the King Power Stadium. Hard to see them coming up short in the goal scoring department today, the Swans have won just once in ten and have conceded eight in their last four home starts and have been forced a little out of their preferred game plan and style by their desperate need to win and the huge pressure on boss Gary Monk, who could do no wrong four months ago, but is now getting the dreaded vote of confidence on a regular basis, such is the life of a head coach, you are only as good as your last 2-3 results in modern football ! They will push and that is going to leave space for Leicester, who have pace to spare and they have scored in 18 straight games, 2+ in 12 of those and you do not need me to tell you about the exploits of Jamie Vardy. Confidence levels are through the roof at the Foxes and they will take to the field looking for the three points which might well take them back to the top of the table.

I do have my concerns about the visitors defensively and spoke about those ahead of last week's game ( preview is reproduced at the foot of this email), 1-1 at the break, a third goal seemed highly likely and I do not doubt if it had come, a fourth would have followed, but United did not stretch the home side enough on the flanks and play was very compacted in front of the penalty area. Hopefully the Swans will have learned from that, Monk had a "clear the air" meeting with his squad this week and feels the team took a lot from a much improved showing at Liverpool last week, but he has demanded his side be more aggressive in possession and when they have tried that previously this season, they have scored, but have been very vulnerable at the back, witness the 2-2 scoreline when they hosted struggling Bournemouth recently, the Cherries led 2-0 early before City fought back to tie things up at the break, but it was all Bournemouth in the second half and they could/should have scored 4. Hosts are going to need at least two to win this and I think they will gamble for the three points , with a trip to Manchester City up next and Monk likely to be looking for a new job this week or next with any other result .

over 2.75 goals 2.14 asian line/Sportmarket

from Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

[paul8209]

Champions League PSV vs CSKA

The visitors need all three points to claim a Europa League place and we have discussed many times how much respect teams from the East give that competition and we can expect them to play a big part in what could develope into a wide open encounter. PSV are in a strange situation, they are currently third and would advance to the CL knockout stage with a win, or a point if Manchester United lose, so they could finish first or last in this section and that is rare on Matchday 6. They are looking to become the first Dutch club to reach the knockout stages for nine long seasons and that brings with it additional pressure, especially with the failure of the national team to reach Euro 2016. They have seen off Manchester United and Wolfsburg here, scoring twice in each and also in a 3-2 loss in Moscow and something similar to that result in the reverse fixture would not surprise, with PSV probably nervous, having one eye on the match in Wolfsburg (odd for a Dutch team to want a German side to win !) and CSKA having no option but to gamble.

The visitors , that win over PSV aside, have not shown the attacking flair and gung-ho nature this season , that we have seen previously from them in the competition and are currently in a slump, with just one point from their last six starts in all competitions, they do still lead their domestic league, which is now in the Winter break after last weekend's round of games, so no need to hold anything back and a win would provide a much needed boost. However, on top of everything else, they have a bit of an injury crisis and several players including central defender Vasili Berezutski, left back Georgi Shchennikov and midfielder Roman Eremenko stayed behind in Moscow. Also, here is an incredible stat , goalkeeper Igor Akinfeev has conceded in his last 36 matches in the Champions League, a run stretching back some nine years ! I guess that PSV would like to play this a little more cautiously, but I suspect that CSKA will dictate how this match plays out and they have nothing to gain by sitting back, they also have a history of letting games slip away from them quickly when they trail on the road. PSV have won 8 of their last 9 home games, they conceded in six of those (5 wins) and both to score and PSV to win, looks the very likely outcome again this evening.

over 3 goals 2.16 asian line/Sportmarket.

both teams to score and PSV to win 3.10-3.25 general quote, bigger in a few places.

from Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

[paul8209]

Champions League Gent - Zenit St Petersburg

Zenit have finally fulfilled their potential in the Champions League and have already secured first place in the group, it has come at a cost domestically and it is no coincidence that the Premier Liga form of both Zenit and CSKA, the two CL teams, has nosedived in recent weeks, anyway, that can wait for another day. Their domestic campaign doesn't restart until March and they need to rest now and come back early to try and get into some sort of match shape for the first round of knockout games in mid February, that process has already started and several players including Hulk (who has already been allowed to return to Brazil) have not made the trip. Head coach Andre Villas-Boas has been open about his thinking and said on the club website earlier this week " In this situation, we have to decide what is more important , this match or the last 16, we should not forget about the dream of the quarter-finals, so we need to be a little more pragmatic." He then went on to give us the all too familiar football talk about "doing our best in every game and loooking for the win", but I think the first comments were the most telling and pertinent.

Gent have already taken four points from home games with Valencia and Lyon and took Zenit closer in St Petersburg than those two and would secure progression today with three points, or if Valencia failed to beat Lyon, but the Spanish club have a new coach to impress and I expect them to win on his official home debut and I am close to certain that Gent will need a maximum return here to progress. Hulk has contributed (goals/assists) to 7 of Zenit's 12 goals in the competition and they obviously lose a lot of offensive threat in his absence, centre back Nicolas Lombaerts started his professional career at Gent and went to University in the city and has spoken about returning to play for the club one day and conspiracy theorists could have a field day if he scores an own goal or makes a couple of errors !

Gent -0.5 ball 2.26 asian line/Sportmarket

from Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

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Germany Bundesliga: Mainz - Stuttgart

Ahead of Stuutgart's last away start , a daunting trip to Dortmund I wrote .........

"After discussing Dortmund and their huge offensive threat a lot in early season, we have largely left them alone since, but they look sure to be amongst the goals today and I feel there is value in them today, despite their short odds. Notes from one of those early games is reproduced below (see November 28th email) to provide some background information. Borussia are once more the closest challengers to Bayern, but it is only second spot which is up for grabs, but they can cement their hold on that today will three points and at least try to keep the leaders advantage down to double digits for as long as possible. Dortmund are averaging 3.33 at home in the Bundesliga and far more in all competitions, Stuttgart are strugling once more , having only missed relegation by two points last season, they have the worst defensive record in the Bundesliga and on the road where they were poor last season giving up 1.88 goals per game, they have gone from bad to worse and are now up to 2.67 pg and the loss of defensive midfielder Serey Die today is hardly going to help in that regard. He has sat out three games this season and Stuttgart have conceded 10 goals , at least three in each and those three opponents have only scored just about a goal per game in other starts, so the omens are not good. Last three wins for Dortmund in this h2h series have been 3-2.3-2 and 6-1 and something along similar lines today seems likely, Dortmund to score 3 + and probably concede. Stuttgart sacked coach Alexander Zorniger earlier this week and have an interim boss in charge, that could mean a change in fortune, but it usually only happens once the new permanent head coach arrives. 4-1 /5-1/ 5-2 feels about right and Dortmund have already won nine times this seaon in which they have scored three + goals and also conceded"

That did indeed end 4-1 and landed a double bet for us. Stuttgart remain with an interim boss, they have Die back , but travel without right back Florian Klein and right winger Martin Harnik and also forward Daniel Ginczek, that weakens them on that flank of course, all three played in Stuttgart's sole road win this season, with Ginczek assisting for two goals in a 3-1 win at Hannover. That was one, of what is so far, only two away victories for Die Roten in 2015 (67% loss rate) and they look up against it today, with Mainz looking for a third straight win and having scored ten goals in their last five starts. Hosts get a boost with the return to the squad of Fabian Frei after three months injured and that will increase competition for starting places. Mainz have won four of the last five home h2h meetings and a fifth looks overpriced at odds against.

Mainz -0.5 ball 2.13 asian line/Sportmarket

from Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

[paul8209]

Spain La Liga: Villarreal - Real Madrid

Another big team facing a crucial game. Real have scored 17 goals in their last five starts since their humiliation at home to Barcelona, but it is an understatement to say that the opposition has been poor and Malmo's showing in midweek was disgraceful and today will be a far sterner test. Howver, Barce dropping two points at home to Deportivo last night is surely all the further incentive needed, Real can close to within two points of the leaders with a win and opportunities to make up ground to that degree over the coming months are going to be few and far between. Thet arrive with not just James, Bale, Benzema and Cristiano Ronaldo in the squad, but most of the other big names too and Pepe and Ramos are set to play together in the centre of the defence for just the third time this season and they have not conceded in the previous 100+ minutes when the duo have been on the pitch together. Real have two home games after this to finish 2015 and can go into the New Year on a real high if they win today.

The hosts had to make a lot of changes in the summer and that looked to have been a seemless transition after they opened with 16 points from their first six starts to sit top of La Liga, but just eight from a possible 24 since and in recent outings they have looked a pale imitation of their early season selves. They have never been prolific scorers and they have scored the fewest of any team in the top eight and just six times in their last eight starts, that is acceptable , to a degree, if your backline is watertight, but those days have also disappeared and they have given up 15 goals in their last nine games in all competitions and conceding and not scoring , will not win you many games ! This looks a good time for Real to be in town, they have "only" won on 4 of their last 7 visits to El Madrigal, but all wins came by two plus goals and they can win in similar fashion this evening, motivation will increase further should Atletico also drop points in a tough afternoon fixture.

Real :Keylor Navas, Kiko Casilla , Rubén Yáñez, Pepe, Ramos, Nacho, Marcelo ,Danilo, Kroos, James, Bale, Casemiro, Kovacic, Modric , Isco, Jesé, Lucas Vázquez, Benzema , Cristiano Ronaldo

Real Madrid -1 ball 2.17 asian line/Sportmarket

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