Football betting Daily Picks

[paul8209]

Premier League: Everton VS Newcastle United

Premier League: Everton VS Newcastle United

This game has a bit of a similar feel to the Deportivo-Rayo game on Monday and like that fixture, it is very hard to fully justify rather big odds on quotes about the Toffees. Everton have kept just two clean sheets at home in 18 starts, one came against fourth tier strugglers Dagenham and the other versus Aston Villa, in the other 16 they have conceded two or more in 56% of starts and that immediately flags up Newcastle United as big to do likewise at circa 31% (3.25). The Magpies do not score a lot of goals on the road, which is a bit of an understatement, as they only have six in the league, but they scored two at Tottenham and have notched at least one on six of their last seven visits to Goodison Park, scoring twice in three of those. I spoke a few weeks ago about the potential goal threat the Magpies possess.......... "Ayoze Perez, Aleksandar Mitrovic, Moussa Sissoko Papiss Cisse and Georginio Wijnaldum give the hosts offensive and goalscoring options the Villans (Aston Villa) simply do not have and on the albeit rare occasions that it all clicks for United, you do wonder why on earth they struggle."

They have scored six in their last three starts, including three at home to Manchester United and two against West Ham United with new signing Jonjo Shelvey having a hand in both goals. Newcastle head coach Steve McClaren has been busy in the transfer window and in addition to Shelvey , who, as a former Liverpool player will get a special "welcome"tonight, he has signed Andros Townsend , Seydou Doumbia and Henri Saivet and this is now a deep squad with competition for starting places and I expect, quite a few more goals in them. Only Sunderland and Aston Villa have collected fewer home points than Everton, who have won just three of their last 14 EPL starts at Goodison .


Newcastle United +0.5 ball 2.38 asian line/Sportmarket

from Clubgowi newsletter

http://www.clubgowi.com

[paul8209]

France Ligue 2 Nimes VS Niort

Niort failed to score for the fourth straight game and whilst they have managed a goal on each of their last five trips to Nimes and scored twice in two of those, they conceded 16 and lost all five ! Nimes have been playing at a high level for many weeks and they have only lost once at home all season. They did taste defeat at Ajaccio in midweek, but I think we can forgive them that, i spoke about the huge support they have been getting at home ahead of that game and the club president issued a rallying cry to fans this week and called every game a final from here on in.

Although we are forging that loss, it has seen them drop back into the relegation places and will concentrate the mind, but I can tell you that Nimes are not looking for a point and have named a very offensive looking squad for tonight with only four defenders in the group and I suspect that there will be a goal in this for Niort despite their poor goalscoring record, they "always" find one here and Nimes have conceded in each of their last three wins, this has 3-1 or 3-2 written all over it in my book

Nîmes : Michel, Gallon - Cordoval, Harek, Marin, Paquiez - Savanier, Cissokho, Briançon, Azouni, Lacourt, Chamed - Ripart, Mounié, Koura, Maoulida.

Niort : Delecroix, Allagbe - Kiki, Lahaye, Choplin, Bong, Da Veiga - Sambia, Koukou, Roye, Selemani, Bouardja - Rocheteau, Djigla, Dona Ndoh, Koné.

Nimes -0.5 ball 2.20 asian line/Sportmarket

over 2.75 goals 2.35 asian line/Sportmarket

from Clubgowi newsletter

http://www.clubgowi.com

[paul8209]

FA Cup: West Ham United - Liverpool

These two are meeting for the fourth time this season and Liverpool are still looking for their first win and goal, after losing both league games and drawing the first FA Cup game at Anfield. The Reds were absolutely battered in the EPL game at Upton Park over New Year and were lucky to score nil and concede only two ! The Reds were the better team in the cup game , despite making ten changes and should really have won that by a couple of goals. They have very littlle (as in no) chance of finishing any higher than 5th in the league and surely it will be all about the cups from now on in and Liverpool are still involved in three of those and could still salvage plenty from this campaign. The one worrying thing about that is that they "rested" a handful of youngsters from the U21 team at the weekend and they are clearly going to continue to continue to rotate to some degree, but Daniel Sturridge (who was an unused sub at the weekend), Philippe Coutinho and Divock Origi are all set to return . Sturridge and Christian Benteke have been playing together in training in build up and the club are clearly going to try the pair in tandem at some stage, probably this evening, but the signals in terms of line up, are very mixed.

They are coming off a 2-2 home draw with Sunderland at the weekend which suited us, but the Reds should have coasted home after leading 2-0 late in the game, they can claim to have been distracted by the fan protest which saw many of the home supporters leave in the 77th minute, immediately followed by the first goal conceded, but there have been a lot of excuses this season and patience is wearing a litth thin. At times they have looked quite good and at others pretty dire, either the goals do not come, or when they do they gift them back at the other end, two against Sunderland, three to Arsenal, four to Norwich City, the only thing you cannot fault them for is their work ethic and under Jurgen Klopp, they are 100% committed and prepared to run until they drop.

The Hammers have said they will rotate a little, but also that they would give this priority over the upcoming league game. I would be surprised if the Hammers kept Liverpool out for a fourth straight game and there was enough encouragement from the last meeting at Anfield and the weekend game to feel that there will be at least a goal in this for the visitors, regardless of line up. Early goals have been a feature of recent United games, with 8 inside 17 minutes in eight of their last nine starts and if one comes tonight, it could be a catalyst for turning this into a mini goal fest. Travelling support of 6,000 will ensure that there is no let up from the visitors , whatever the scoreline , last ten h2h meetings in East London have averaged 3.3 goals and I expect this to follow suit.

over 2.5 goals 2.14 asian line/Sportmarket

from Clubgowi newsletter

http://www.clubgowi.com

[paul8209]

Coupe de France PSG - Lyon

Four weeks ago today, these two clubs met here in Paris in the Coupe de la Ligue and I liked the chances of both teams scoring in a PSG win , I also spoke about the additional motivation that the hosts had in games against the team who preceded them as the number one club in France .

PSG won that 2-1 and opponents have scored in four of their last five home wins and they are also coming off a 2-1 road win at Marseille at the weekend. That we can bet the same outcome at even bigger odds than for last month's meeting just seems very wrong and looks far and away the best value on offer this evening. Lyon are now just three points off Champions League pace, but do have have five teams above them and cannot catch one of them ( probably two) and it looks increasing like a case of the "pack" battling for one remaining place. Lyon are the "name" team amongst those and the one with all the experience, so will fancy their chances over 13 rounds, but they host a direct rival on Sunday and will have to play with that in mind this evening. This is the first of four home games inside 11 days for PSG , with Chelsea visiting in the Champions League next midweek, but they will be up for this and if they are to ease off a little it will surely be in the weekend fixture, Laurent Blanc has named his strongest available squad, only change from the group which travelled to Marseille is the omission of Javier Pastore, but he has hardly played at all this season.

OL will arrive with a little bit of swagger and self belief, they held out until quite late in the most recent h2h meeting and are coming off back to back 3-0 wins, the last of which came on the road to highflying Angers, who had only conceded four in their previous 12 home starts. Lyon have scored on their last four visits here and have every chance of doing so again, will that be enough to get a result ? I very much doubt it !

PSG : Sirigu, Douchez, Aurier, Maxwell, Thiago Silva, Marquinhos, Kurzawa, David Luiz, Thiago Motta, Stambouli, Rabiot, Matuidi, Ongenda, Nkunku, Ibrahimovic, Cavani, Augustin, Lucas, Di Maria.

Lyon : Lopes, Gorgelin, Bedimo, Yanga-Mbiwa, Morel, Koné, Jallet, Umtiti, Darder, Ferri, Gonalons, Grenier, Tolisso, Labidi, Ghezzal, Valbuena, Lacazette, Cornet.

PSG to win and both teams to score 2.75-2.90 general quote

from Clubgowi newsletter

http://www.clubgowi.com

[paul8209]

Spain La Liga: Eibar - Levante

Briefly, we have probably discussed Eibar as much as any team in 2016 and you can read a lot of notes on them in my preview of last month's home game with Granada.

They won that 5-1. leading 2-0 at the break, so one of those all too rare games which played out perfectly ! They have subsequently lost three in row, 5-2, 2-1, 3-1 and their last nine starts have averaged 4.56 goals and a feature of all and Eibar in general, is the really open style of play and the hosts willingness to really go for it right from the kick off. They are in eighth place and have nothing to lose, a win is very likely to take them up to a giddy sixth and we can expect them to play with only three points in mind. Levante have a different reputation, but are bottom of the table and five points from safety, they are going to have to start gambling soon and maybe there are signs that has already happened, witness the recent 4-3 loss at Celta Vigo. They will probably need to score twice to take anything from this, but having scored three in Vigo and once at Sevilla in their last away start, they will probably be confident of doing so and know that Eibar will give them chances. The reverse fixture ended 2-2 and the meeting here last season 3-3 and I cannot agree with "over" odds today, given how this is likely to play out, with the home side gung-ho from the get-go !

over 2.5 goals 2.13 asian line/Sportmarket

from Clubgowi newsletter

[paul8209]

Champions League Benfica - Zenit

I have spoken many times about the huge disadvantage that the Eastern European teams are at this stage of the competition, given that they have not played a competitive fixture for months, however, if they can find a way through the first knockout round, that turns around and they then have a edge in freshness and, to a degree fitness, through the latter stages and we have seen clear examples of that with Zenit's UEFA Cup win and the success of the Ukrainian teams in subsequent competitions.This stage is the problem and Zenit have struggled with it in recent campaigns, however, they look better suited to European football once more under Andre Villas- Boas and he and the Portugese players in his team will know plenty about Benfica and will be boosted by their wins over the home side at the group stage of the competition last season , winning 2-0 in Lisbon. In the last 16 in 2013-14 they were very slow out of the blocks and lost their two legged tie with Dortmund inside 30 minutes and there is a danger that they will one again pay for that lack of a competitive edge.

Hosts will want revenge for those h2h defeats and a lead to take to the return, but they have conceded in their last 6 of 8 domestic games, seven of which have gone "over" and Benfica have conceded in their last five CL starts and again, all of those produced at least three goals. We have already spoken about the value of away goals and AVB will want one as a minimum. Given that need, Benfica's vulnerability at the back and the possibility that Zenit could run out of steam and/or be caught cold, I have to favour goals.

over 2.5 goals 2.35 asian line/Sportmarket

from Clubgowi newsletter

[paul8209]

Europa League Valencia - Rapid Wien

We know that Rapid are very offensive minded and they will arrive with an attacking mindset and looking to put further pressure on struggling Valencia and boss Gary Neville. The home supporters are very restless and it will not take much for them to "turn", especially as this is now, "season on the line time" for Los Che, who have nothing else left to play for. They come into this game missing a couple of key defenders, but no excuses are going to be accepted or even listened to by fans who have been long suffering and a really hard earned win over a poor Espanyol team, the first La Liga three points in three months, has done little to convince anyone that a corner has been turned. Rapid took 15 points from a Europa League group containing Villarreal and were close to making it to the CL ( see below), they are going toe to toe with Salzburg for the domestic title and arrive on the back of a 3-0 road win at highflying rivals Austria Vienna at the weekend and could hardly be in more confident mood, which is in stark contrast to their hosts. Very hard not to see goals in this for Rapid and Valencia look stronger on the front foot than defensively and this is huge for them, so it has to be ................


over 2.75 goals 2.12 asian line/Sportmarket...best alternative ......3.5 goals 2.90-3.10 general quote

from Clubgowi newsletter

[paul8209]

England League 1: Bradford - Rochdale

I see a lot of similarities between this Bradford city team and the one which we were strongly with through their 2012-13 League 2 promotion year, they came with a big run there to win the playoffs and despite getting distracted with cup runs and a poor playing surface in subsequent campaigns, they have improved in each, finishing 11th and 7th , they are a big club and have the level of support to once more become an established Championship side and look to be coming on strong in the second half of the campaign and timing their run well. They have posted back to back wins over direct playoff rivals in Peterborough United and Southend United by a combined 6-0 and meet a Rochdale side who are very hit and miss, recent wins over league leaders Burton Albion and third placed Walsall, were sandwiched between losses to Barnsley and Chesterfield who were both in the drop zone and where they conceded nine goals, just about sums them up ! Visiting boss Keith Hill is a head caoch I have a lot of time for and he will never compromise his principles and his teams are always pleasing on the eye and will look to get forward at every opportunity, witness the two points and two goal lead thrown away at home to Crewe Alexandra last week. Dale are struggling defensively and I was quite shocked to read some of the comments on their forum, which were very much of the "I think we have enough about us to stay up " variety, which is a little telling as they are eight points clear of the drop zone with at game in hand on most teams below them.

The visitors have won only three times on the road all season and have been dealing with lengthy injury problems and lacking a real central defensive pairing and that looks likely to cost them dear today, City striker James Hanson is listed as 1.93m, but looks much taller and is a huge aerial threat and can punish that defensive weakness, he has returned to form with four goals in his last four starts and will be up for this today. He caused Dale a lot of problems last year with a goal and assist agaisnt them and will have been sorry to have started on the bench in the reverse fixture this season , which City won 3-1, creating a lot of chances and with two goals coming from crosses into the box.City are tight defensively and have only conceded 11 at home this season, but goals at the other end have been hard to come by until recently and if they have largely solved those issues, they are going to be tough to kep out of the top six. Home win.

Bradford City -0.5 ball 2.09 asian line/Sportmarket

from Clubgowi newsletter

http://www.clubgowi.com

[paul8209]

Champions League: Arsenal - Barcelona

I am not going to say too much about this game, most of you will know as much (more ?) than I do about the two clubs and they certainly know each other well enough, with this their eighth Champions League meeting. Both teams have scored in the previous seven and I definitely expect that to again be the case this evening, the Gunners have won one, two draws and four Barcelona wins and if I had to pick, I would stick with those trends and say that BTS and the visitors to win , which is priced at circa 3.10-3.25 was the best "non asian" bet on offer. Are Messi, Sanchez and Neymar the best offensive trio of all time ? Probably, I can't think of a better one in my lifetime and the truth is that the Gunners will probably need to score twice this evening to give themselves any real chance of progressing over the two legs. We have spoken a lot over the last 12 months about the value of an away goal and all the big, experienced European teams know this and Barce who have made 7 of the last 8 CL semis are 15-2-2 in the copetition in the last two seasons , scoring at least once in each game. Arsenal have scored in their last 13, but have lost in the Round of 16 for five yeras running and in their home leg in the last three they have lost each by two goals , including 3-1 losses to Monaco and Bayren Munich and that correct score (1-3 at odds of 13.0-14.0 ) certainly makes some appeal ( I am already waiting for the email from Mr "But how will I know what to bet" !). Barce have scored 30 in their last ten starts , but have also conceded in eight of those, last h2h meetings have averaged 4.25 goals and my suggested "official" bet would have been a winner four times and seen stakes returned twice.

over 3 goals 2.13 asian line/Sportmarket

from Clubgowi newsletter

[paul8209]

Europa League: Bilbao - Marseille

Athletic Bilbao really make all the criteria for going deep and we know they will never want for trying, my notes ahead of the first leg can be read under the "good luck" sign off. They won that 1-0 courtesy of a stunning volley from Aritz Aduriz and will of course progress with a draw, but sitting back is not really in their nature, or playing to their strengths and their hugely passionate supporters will be urging them forward at every opportunity. They will be without suspended midfielder Benat Etxebarria and forward Inaki Williams this evening, but have strength in depth and more than able replacements. Marseille will take comfort from the fact that their road form has been stronger all season, but San Mames is never an easy place to come and play, it is like the cathedral of Basque football and with this match coming on the back of a derby loss to Real Sociedad last Sunday, I suspect we will see a hugely motivated host. Athletic have won next time out at home after their last four losses here (three were to Barce and Real Madrid), they actually include a win over Real and they scored eight in the two most recent (5 v Eibar and 3 v Valencia). They are going to get more space than usual at some stage with the visitors having to look for the win and OM would have no option but to throw caution to the wind, immediately if they fell behind this evening, or late in the game and this will surely get very stretched and play into the hands of the attacked minded and better technically home side, sooner or later.

OM get Benjamin Mendy and Rémy Cabella back, but remain without Lucas Ocampos, Dja Djedje and Lucas Silva (see all five in notes below), they have made the trip with a large squad and I remain to be convinced that they are 100% committed to the Europa League and that we might see some rotation, they play a cup game in six days time (best chance for silverware) and a tough league game at Ajaccio on Sunday, where defeat might well end any remaining top 3 hopes. That will be their eighth February fixture ( inside 26 days) ,French clubs are not really used to that level of competition ( Aug-Dec they played no more than six in any calendar month) and they played more than 30 minutes with ten men on Sunday. Athletic have only played four games so far this month and will surely have an edge in fresher and love for the competition.


Athletic: Iraizoz, Bóveda, Elustondo, Laporte, Eraso, San José, Iturraspe, De Marcos, Iago Herrerín, Susaeta, X.Etxeita, Mikel Rico, Gurpegi, Muniain, Aduriz, Raúl García, Balenziaga, Sabin Merino, I.Lekue.

OM: 16 Yohann Pelé,30 Steve Mandanda,40 Florian Escales,2 Javier Manquillo,3 Nicolas Nkoulou,4 Karim Rekik,6 Rolando,15 Stéphane Sparagna,23 Benjamin Mendy,25 Paolo De Cegile,10 Lassana Diarra,11 Romain Alessandrini,13 Rémy Cabella,17 Bouna Sarr,18 Mauricio Isla,19 Abdelaziz Barrada,20 Alaixys Romao,9 Steven Fletcher,14 GK Nkoudou,22 Michy Batshuayi,24 Florian Thauvin,28 Antoine Rabillard


Athletic Bilbao -1 ball 2.31 asian line/Sportmarket

from Clubgowi newsletter

http://www.clubgowi.com

[paul8209]

JLeague FC Tokyo - Omiya Ardija

Omiya Ardija are newly promoted and do not immedately look to have added much by the way of top flight quality and look like a JL2 team in JL1 and we have seen a number of those in recent campaigns. I do not want to immediately write them off, but this is a tough start. FCT have already played two AFC Champions League games having had to qualify, they so they been playing competitively for two weeks and that, at least for now, is a huge advantage in my opinion. They finished fourth last year and the loss of Yoshinori Muto mid season, cost them a lot of goal threat, they were well organised under Massimo Ficcadenti, whom we discussed almost weekly , but he has been replaced( what will we talk about now on Friday afternoon?), paying the price for boring football, with not enough end product, you cannot do both, without paying the price! Returning boss Hiroshi Jofuku will get the benefit of a defensively solid squad and will look to bring a little more flair, he will miss Kosuke Ota who has also left for Europe. They opened with a 9-0 win over Chonburi in their qualifier, which was little more than shooting practice, but good for confidence. FCT lost 2-1 in midweek at Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors, but were quite impressive and were tactically solid, pressing high up the field and allowing a good opponent few real chances, they were also denied an equaliser by the woodwork. Jofuku will be very keen to win on his second home J-League debut

FC Tokyo -0.5 ball 2.13 asian line/Sportmarket

from Clubgowi newsletter

[paul8209]

Norwich - Chelsea

I previewed Chelsea's trip to in form Southampton on Saturday and spoke about their top six ambitions.........

"Two in form teams, the Blues are unbeaten in ten in the EPL, Saints are 5-1-0 in their last six and have not conceded a single goal in that sequence, but they have ridden their luck at times, there are only so many times that Fraser Forster can save them and they will have to manage today without the protection of holding player Victor Wanyama against what is a firing visiting midfield.

Top 4 looks beyond Chelsea after their terrible start, but they want to keep their EPL campaign alive and their stated target is a top six Premier League finish for what would be the 20th consecutive season. Saints are currently in that position, seven points ahead of the West London club, so a win today would be hugely valuable in terms of that particular ambition. Saints have not kept a clean sheet in 11 games against the Blues and have really struggled until recently whenever Wanyama has been absent, the defensive midfield pairing of Jordy Clasie and Oriol Romeu have done well this season when called upon, but the latter moved from Chelsea in August and will be well known by the visitors. I expect the visitors to be very focused on their next two EPL games, here and at Norwich in midweek, ahead of the home game with Stoke next Saturday they might start to think about the return with PSG, but it will be all about the Premier League in the interim and a fully motivated visitor can ask the Saints more questions than they have faced for some time."

The Blues had to battle very hard to come from behind and earn the three points and having done so, it is hard to see them being any less committed to the match at Carrow Road, where City have conceded ten in their last three starts and, as we have discussed several times this season, often urged forward too often by the passionate home crowd and probably therefore, not playing to their strengths, such as they are at EPL level. The Canaries have not won in eight starts, conceding three goals in five of those and failing to register themselves in five, even in the last two matches that they have taken something from at home to West Ham and Southampton, they have needed an awful lot to go their way, red cards, missed chances for the opposition and they will need to ride their luck to stop the Chelsea juggernaut now that it is up and running.

Chelsea -1 ball 2.25 asian line/Sportmarket

from Clubgowi newsletter

http://www.clubgowi.com

[paul8209]

West Ham - Tottenham

Tough week for Spurs, with a Sunday, Wednesday, Saturday lunchtime kick off. They trailed for 50 minutes in the first, which also came on the back of a Thursday Europa League tie and the next two are derby games. United will definitely be up for this, they are not totally out of Champions League contention themselves, in this strangest of seasons and are still in the FA Cup and Slaven Bilic's first season in charge and last at Upton Park, could hardly have gone better . The club have looked as good as anyone on a going day, witness road wins at Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City and they have unearthed a couple of superstars (Dimitri Payet is already heavily tipped for the POTY award), which might help them fill the Olympic Stadium next season. One game which was certainly not a "going day" was the 4-1 loss in the reverse fixture, that could have been 8-4 something like that, United had good chances early, but Spurs once they got ahead were all over the Hammers. Tottenham will go top of the EPL with all three points, with just ten rounds to play and a North London derby game with Arsenal less than 63 hours later, hard to think of any greater incentive and we will surely see both teams really go for this.

United's four home games against other top eight teams have all produced three or more goals with both teams scoring in each and I see this playing out similarly, neither team will lie down after conceding, Spurs have collected FAR more points than any other EPL team (17) from losing positions and the Hammers are third in that table.

over 2.75 goals 2.26 asian line/Sportmarket

from Clubgowi newsletter

[paul8209]

France Ligue2 Evian - Dijon

Dijon look like they are coasting back to Ligue 1, but after a few false alarms in recent campaigns, will not be taking anything for granted just yet. They sit 11 points clear of the team in fourth, but have scored two or more goals in each of their last four starts, including away to Laval and Le Havre, teams who do not give up a lot of goals. They are strong at home , losing just once all season, which was actually to Evian back in October, which will give the hosts hope, but also mean that DFCO will arrive looking for a little revenge too. Despite that home record, I have made no secret of the fact that I believe they are better suited to playing on the road, with Julio Tavares the perfect man to lead the line away from home.

Evian have to deal with the always difficult Monday-Friday turnaround, but will be up for a visit from the league leaders and can play their part in what should be an open encounter. They will have to do so without left back/winger Fabien Centoze who is suspended (Dijon have scored a lot of goals this season from that flank).

Dijon arrive short handed defensively with centre back and captain Cedric Varraut and right back Arnaud Souquet (no clean sheet in six starts without him) missing. Goals !

over 2.25 goals 2.13 asian line/Sportmarket

from Clubgowi newsletter

[paul8209]

France Ligue 1 : Lyon - Guingamp

I was very keen on Lyon in this fixture last season , which they won 3-1 and I see a similar outcome this afternoon. Lyon are on a bit of a charge, especially at home where they have won their last three ( Bordeaux, Caen and runaway leaders PSG) scoring nine goals in the process and that is about as inpressive a sequence as you can put together in Ligue 1. Three points today will take them back into third and they will be looking to cement that as soon as possible, with as many as 12 teams still feeling they are in contention for what looks to be one remaining Champions League spot (Marseille in 14th are eight point adrift of Nice who are currently in third, but have two games in hand ). OL are the biggest club amongst the pack and kind of feel that a spot in Europe's premier competition is theirs by right and will want to continue putting on pressure on all the clubs around them. Guingamp have relegation concerns and will battle hard, but they have lost eight on the road already, they have scored seven goals in their last three starts, but have taken only a single point from those , conceding ten and it is fairly obvious where their problems lie. OL are stronger today than for the win over PSG with the return of Christophe Jallet, Samuel Umtiti and Clement Grenier, which gives a chance to freshen up and also highlights the depth the club have now built up (beating PSG missing 5 regulars). Not difficult to see a goal for Guingamp, but once the dust has settled, surely another reasonably comfortable home win, repeat of that 3-1 feels about right.

Lyon -1.25 ball 2.14 asian line/Sportmarket

Lyon to win and both teams to score 3.10-3.30

from Clubgowi newsletter