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Champions League: Vardar Skopje - Dinamo Zagreb
Sweltering in Skopje today and conditions will probably slightly favour the hosts, but that is probably the only advantage they might have and it will have cooled down significantly by kick off and if the forecast I saw is 100% correct, there might even be some cloud cover and a slight breeze during the game.
The Macedonian team have struggled in Europe and have not won a game since 2004, that is 16 fixtures (0-6-10), they have mainly been playing teams of a similar level to Dinamo and they are going to have to up the level of their performance to break their duck this evening.
Veteran coach Zlatko Kranjčar is back in charge of Dinamo for a third time and will clearly have a mandate to continue the visitors fine record in the competition and European football in general and to get another share of the huge riches that the Champions League offer for his club.
Over the last decade, Dinamo have qualified for the group stage of the UEFA Cup/Europa League four times, the Champions League three times since 2011-12 including last year, when they beat Arsenal in the group stage and picked up 13.5m €. You get "used" to that kind of money and the club accountants will be looking for more of the same. Of course, they do not need to win today, a point would not be terrible and they would be confident of turning things in their favour next week, but that would put them under a little pressure , everyone knows the value of an away goal and one might be enough to collect the win today. Vardar are a little short handed up top and Dinamo have an amazing UEFA Champions League qualifying road record, being 9-2-0 away from home in the last four years.
The Macedonian league doesn't begin again until next month, the Croatian league re-starts this weekend, so the visitors should be a few weeks further along in terms of fitness and I expect them to win this.
Dinamo Zagreb -0.5 ball 1.98 asian line/Sportmarket
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Brazil Serie A: Chapecoense - Cruzeiro
Chapecoense were very disorganized last round and lost 5-1 away at Sport Recife . They acted quickly afterwards to appoint a new coach, but he has had no real time to work with his players, they will be starting their third game with a different coach inside 8 days and they have clocked up a lot of air miles in the last 10 days and they need a free midweek ( which they will get next week) just to regroup.
Cruzeiro have just posted back to back and impressive wins, beating Ponte Preta 4-0 on the road and coming from behind to defeat leaders Palmeiras at the weekend, both were wide open contests and whilst there was a LOT to like about Cruz offensively in both and I loved the way they kept going forward, instead of sitting on their lead(s), they were suspect at the back and could easily have conceded four instead of one across the two games. They will be without central defender Bruno Rodrigo and left winger Alisson ( lost 6/23 when he plays. 12/26 when he is sidelined) tonight.
Despite their "issues", Chapecoense are very focused on the points tonight, they travel to Santos at the weekend and know that failure to win this evening is likely to leave them very close to the drop zone come Sunday night. They have reduced ticket prices and are expecting a big crowd and have a new coach to impress. Both team have been involved in several shoot outs recently and we might well see another.
over 2.25 goals @ 2.13 at Sportmarket
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MLS: LA Galaxy- Colorado Rapids
Rapids have been the surprise package of the season and lead the Western Conference with an avergae of over 2 points per game and having conceded a MLS low 11 goals . They are on an eleven match unbeaten run and have conceded more than a single goal just once in sixteen 2016 starts in all competitions. They arrive here on the back of a 2-1 home win over Chicago Fire at the weekend, they have not left the altitude of Colorado for a month and should have some small advantages from that today, with Commerce City 1,574m above sea level. They have been ending games strongly with goals after the 85th minute in each of their last three starts.
Galaxy are suffering a dip in form and have not won in six (all comps) and have kept just one clean sheet in 11 starts, that was ok when they were scoring freely, but the goals have dried up and they have failed to score in their last two and are short of offensive options right now. Robbie Keane and Gyasi Zardes are on international duty and Giovani Dos Santos and Steven Gerrard are doubts, the quartet have 16 goals and nine assists between them (Galaxy have scored 27), definitely out is right back Robbie Rogers who has had ankle surgery, he has missed seven games ( no clean sheets) since last June. On top of everything else, they played in Toronto on Saturday, so a long journey there and back on a quick turnaround and they have been vulnerable, when Rapids have been coming on strong, conceding in three of their last four starts after the 77th minute. They also play the Clasico game with San Jose Earthquakes in front of a massive crowd on Saturday and will surely have that at the back of their mind. Rapids look to have all the advantages and have to be the selection with the handicap start.
Colorado Rapids +0.5 @ 2.04 at Sportmarket
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Brazil Serie A: Atletico Mineiro - Ponte Preta
Easy to see goals here, last three h2h meetings have gone "over". Atletico have conceded 14 in their last six starts, including four at Sport Recife which we have discussed in the previews below and have not kept a clean sheet in eight, six of Ponte Preta's last seven starts have produced three or more goals. The hosts have the option of bringing back Cazares and Erazo into the squad after the pair returned from Copa America this week, but they will be a game time decision. AMG played at Internacional on Thursday night , using 12 of the 14 who played last weekend in a match where they were down to ten for 30 minutes and at one stage playing versus 9 and then 8 , so all would have been working extra hard and now are playing in the morning game, just some 61 hours later. Ponte Preta were at home on Wednesday and have not travelled for 14 days, so a freshness edge to them. This is the first of four matches in Belo Horizonte for AMG, three at home and the derby with America and a chance for last years runner up to begin their climb up the table, but it is hard to see how it will be achieved with a clean sheet today and another high scoring game is on the cards.
over 2.5 goals @ 1.95 at Sportmarket
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J League: Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Urawa Reds
Sanfrecce looked to have finally broken the Urawa jinx , taking four points from them last year and they are now unbeaten in four h2h meetings. Prior to that Reds had dominated, with their head coach Mihailo Petrovic formerly in charge at Hiroshima for five years and knowing the club back to front. However, few of the current group would have played under him now and much has changed since 2011, but it was previously a major issue. Anyway, both have fallen off Stage 1 title winning pace and paid the price for a Champions League campaign, which always seems the case. Each will be looking to stay in touch of top 3 and to make a big push to win Stage 2.
Both teams played in midweek, Sanfrecce in Tokyo, which is a long trip and four hours on the fastest train and they are fast ! Urawa in Osaka, not sure if they stayed and then moved on to Hiroshima, or went back to Tokyo and then made the trip on Friday, neither is ideal and it is a coin toss which is the more unsettling/draining, so for me, definitely advantage Sanfrecce who would have been back on normal schedule by Thursday. Urawa also played two extra Champions League games and in the last 23 days they have played a home game and made trips to Seoul, Osaka, Tosu ( another long journey) and now Hiroshima and that is very demanding, especially for a team who had about a 4-5 week off season, playing their final game of last season on New Year's Day and a CL game on February 24th ! It is no wonder that the schedule is beginning to take a toll.
Petrovic spoke about the effect all this had on his team after the loss at Gamba, he admitted his team were running on empty, could not keep pace with Osaka early, got into things after the break briefly, but then just run out of steam and that they were "looking to rebuild" and get strong again after the next 2-3 matches were out of the way. They look to have hit a wall and the head coach as admitted as much and it is hard to see how they can be as up for this as the home side and their priority will surely be their two home matches next week.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima level ball 2.23 asian line/Sportmarket
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Copa America: Colombia - Paraguay
This match is being played in Pasadena, so advantage Colombia having opened in Santa Clara, just a short hop down the coast and a beautiful drive along Highway 101 if you choose to go the scenic route ! Paraguay played in Orlando which means a six hour flight, three hour time difference and having played a day later, 20 hours + less recovery time. All these disadvantages add up and inbetween two tough games, I think it is the exta training session that Colombia will have been able to fit in that is the real bonus and I do think they will be looking to win the group. That would mean staying on the West Coast (Seattle) for their quarter final, as opposed to flying to New York and they would go to Houston in the semis if they won, which is where they are playing their final group game, so a big edge there , or rather no disadvantages, which is effectively the same thing ! It would also give Brazil the "option" to avoid them in the last eight and go into the separate half of the draw from both Colombia and Argentina, by finishing runner up in Group B. They might be without James Rodriguez today which is, of course, a loss, Los Cafeteros are 8-1-1 in his absence, although half of those starts were against weaker opposition than they face today.
Paraguay played as kind of expected against Costa Rica, which was not to lose, head coach Ramon Diaz has been very critical of the schedule (he is right) and the very hot draining conditions, on top of everything else, his team faced in Orlando . They had a lot of experienced and likely starters withdraw from the squad pre tournament, Aguliar, Ortigoza, Barrios and Caceres who all started in their last really good result a 0-0 draw with Argentina for example are missing ( nine players with 413 international starts were either left out , or pulled out of the final squad) and options are limited. Diaz is 95% certain to stick with the eleven who faced Costa Rica, given the weather, travel, time difference, less rest etc, is that a good or bad thing ?
Colombia's odds have risen to 2.15+ this morning, that probably relates to the "loss" of James, which is expected, but now means they are very backable, given that they hold almost every other advantage ..........
Colombia -0.5 ball 2.10 asian line/Sportmarket
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MLS: New England Revolution - Seattle Sounders
New England will be looking to bounce back from a 4-2 home loss to FC Dallas and for new and very expensive striker Kei Kamara to start gelling with the talented Revolution midfield. This is a mini transition period for NER as they try to play to get the best out of their new front man who had 31 goals in 46 appearances for Columbus Crew, but now that he has 180 minutes of game time under his belt and Revolution a second free midweek in a row and almost three weeks based in Boston, it looks time to get going. Not least because they have three road games up next and do not play at Foxborough again until July 6th !
Seattle are struggling on the road (0-1-3) , where they have scored just three goals , they made the 3,000 mile cross country trip here on Thursday without Clint Dempsey (US national team), Nelson Valdez (Paraguay) and back up striker Oalex Anderson. That leaves Jody Morris as the only available forward with goals this season and with Lamar Neagle and Obafemi Martins having moved on , this is not the old free scoring Sounders, at least at present.There are creating chances, but all from distance and are simply not getting in the box often enough. I guess Morris will move into the middle, which he will like, but that hardly addresses the supply issue, with no experienced option on the right.
Good chance for Revolution, who won this match up 5-0 the last time these two met on the East Coast ( two years ago).
New England Revolution -0.75 ball 2.16 asian line/Sportmarket
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FAI Cup: Drogheda United - Derry City
This is a replay after Drogheda United earned a 1-1 draw in the first meeting on Friday, I watched most of that and am still not quite sure how Derry did not win by 4-5 goals.
City hit the woodwork twice, missed a penalty and they were not the big misses, also blowing about five one on ones with the goal keeper and being guilty of some diabolical finishing, you can get some idea from these 3-4 minutes of highlights. United created almost nothing and scored with pretty much their sole attempt on goal and they were gifted that by some Keystone Kop defending from City.
There is pretty much a full division between these two and it looked all of that and then some on Friday and if Derry have half as many scoring opportunities this evening, you have to feel they will win with a degree of comfort. Derry have beaten Drogheda 3-0 and 5-0 in this competition in the last two years and should have won similarly in the first game, playing on the road should not stop justice being done this time round.
Derry City -1 ball 2.06 asian line/Sportmarket
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Championship Playoff: Hull City - Derby County
I was with Derby in the first leg and they played terribly, losing 3-0. Goals change games and County looked the better team for the first 20 minutes, but conceded against the run of play ( goalkeeper will be disappointed) and that was a momentum changer, City grew in confidence and a few minutes later scored a second with a twice deflected shot. That left the Rams feeling sorry for themselves, unable to find a way back and City running the show.
Second leg semi finals have tended to be open games and the last six seasons have seen all twelve games produced a minimum two goals , with ten going "over" and averaging 3.83 goals , four of the last five years have seen the two games total exactly seven goals and after the 1-1 draw last night at Brighton, this "should " produce five goals and that would not totally surprise. Away teams have scored in 10 of 12 ( 11 of 13 after last night) and the home side have scored three or more in seven. Last three teams to win the away first leg have gone on to win the home tie by at least three goals and I guess that County could collapse and "give up" if they conceded first, but you would expect the visitors to at least look to restore some pride and the away supporters are not going to accept any lack of effort this evening. The County players have had to (quite rightly) deal with a lot of local and media accusations of a lack of character in the aftermath of Saturday's debacle and have attempted to defend themselves, no one on the terraces or at boardroom level is going to accept less than 100% commitment tonight and if they lose again, they will have to go down fighting and committed to the cause, or they will be torn apart post match. One goal at either end will surely see this get very stretched. An away win would not surprise, especially as City can lose by two and progress, but I will go with ..........
over 2.75 goals 2.35 asian line/Sportmarket
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MLS: Houston Dynamo - Real Salt Lake
These two met in the reverse fixture in Salt Lake just two weeks. Real to work hard to win that 2-1 and lost 1-0 at MLS leading Colorado Rapids last weekend, not really any shame in that and Real had six attempts on target and dominated all passing and possession stats in the final third, especially after the break and really ought to have got something from that. They are ending games strongly and I see that giving them a big advantage here with Dynamo having played in midweek, a poor showing in a 3-1 loss to San Jose Earthquakes, where goalkeeper Tyler Deric was sent off late. I guess that will mean a return of Joe Willis between the sticks, Dynamo have just one cleansheet in 11 when he plays, conceding at the rate of 1.91 goals per game. Real have scored eight on their last two visits to Houston , they look the stronger team and have had an extra four days to rest and prepare for this.
Real Salt Lake level ball 2.19 asian line/Sportmarket
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JLeague: Urawa Reds - Albirex Niigata
Urawa have dominated this series in recent years, with an 8-2-0 record in Saitama, along with seven clean sheets and a very similar 8-1-1 from ten starts in Niigata, also keeping Albirex scoreless in seven. So, in the last 20 h2h meetings, Urawa have an 80% win rate and have not conceded in 70%. The hosts currently look as strong as at any time during the course of those previous meetings and they will be looking to extend their advantage in the Stage 1 league table and seal their place in the post season as quickly as possible,, leaving them free to them concentrate fully on the AFC Champions League instead of Stage 2 later in the year.
Albirex have had a tough schedule and playing Kashima Antlers, Gamba Osaka and then Urawa Reds, all back to back inside ten days, with two on the road , is about as difficult as it gets in J-League and they will have spent a lot of time chasing the ball, come the final whistle tomorrow evening. 8 of their 14 goals this season have come from Rafael da Silva and Tasuya Tanaka, the first is injured and former Urawa striker Tanaka has only played more than 75 minutes twice in the last three seasons and has already been asked to play more minutes than he did in the whole of 2015 this season. They need to score, as they are incredibly leaky at the other end of the pitch, only relegated Shimizu S-Pulse conceded more last season and that trend has continued and they have already given up a J-League high 20 this time round, at the rate of 2.0 per game on the road. The core of their defence, which conceded eight in two visits ( league and cup) to Urawa last season is unchanged and they do not have appeared to have addressed those issues in the interim.
Urawa Reds -1.25 ball 1.98 asian line/sportmarket
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Ligue 1: Bordeaux - PSG
PSG have not taken their foot off the gas following Champions League elimination, infact, they have gone into overdrive and have won their last five since bowing out to Manchester City by a 17-1 margin, putting six past Caen and scoring four against Rennes and GFCO. The first two are above Bordeaux in Ligue 1 and the third are fighting for survival and if PSG are up for it, they can run in 3-4 + goals against anyone in France and with the quality in their squad, they are not going to be suffering from the effects of a long campaign as much as other teams. There are a few records/targets up for grabs, they would open up a 30 point lead with a win this evening (also reach 30 wins for the season) and Zlatan will surely want to say his farewells on a high, he has 35 goals and five to reach 40 in his last two league games is certainly not impossible. He will probably feel a little "angry" that he only scored one of the four at the weekend , with Edinson Cavani notching a hat-trick and PSG will probably be looking to put the record staright and gain a little revenge for the 2-2 draw in Paris in the reverse fixture and a 3-2 defeat here in Bordeaux last season.
PSG have a lengthy injury list, they have been coping without Pastore, Van der Wiel and Verratti for some time, today Cavani and Blaise Matuidi are also sidelined. Without Matuidi in the squad, PSG have won 4/4 on the road ( GFCO, Troyes, Bastia and Nantes) with a 19-1 (!) goal difference, but he did sit out that 3-2 loss in this fixture last season. Cavani has played 25 minutes or less in 10 starts, PSG have won all ten, but again he also missed that defeat here last season, although I would say that had more to do with the fact that game was played just a couple of days after that gruelling Champions League tie at Stamford Bridge, which went to extra time and where Zlatan was dismissed early. Anyway, in those ten wins, PSG conceded in five and given the five goals that Bordeaux have managed in the last two meetings, I think the most likely outcome tonight is that a PSG win comes with both teams scoring.
The logical conclusion is that Zlatan will score the goals, he will play only three (maximum) more games and will want to end on a high, he has scored eight in the games that Cavani has missed, but that is actually way below average for him, as he has over 1.2 per game in Ligue 1 all season, so was four short ! It is Angel di Maria who has thrived without his fellow South American, he has scored 7/10 (five on the road), just 3 (all at home) from his other 17 appearances. There is 2.50, even some 2.75 about him scoring and that looks good value.
However, I will stick with PSG to win and both teams to score @ 2.80-3.0 general quote
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