Women's World Cup: Group A:
Canada- Netherlands
China- New Zealand
Canada have created plenty of chances, but only have a single goal to show for it and are still not certain of even a top 2 finish. Christine Sinclair is the focus of so much of what they do offensively and this resulted in a very one dimensional offence. They switch from Edmonton to Montreal today, but are going to get huge support once again, maybe even bigger than for opening day and certainly in the 45,000 -55,000 range. The playing surface there is a little different too, Xtreme as opposed to FieldTurf, so conditions and surroundings will be a little alien to both teams.The hosts would secure first place in the group with a win and they are desperate for that as it would mean playing their Round of 16 and then last eight game in Vancouver, this is the home of the national team in more ways than one and as TSN described: "Vancouver is not just some ordinary training camp base, it is way more valuable than that. "Vancouver is the ancestral and spiritual home of the WNT and contains all those familiar patterns and surroundings - a soccer sanctuary like nothing else in the history of competitive soccer in Canada. "Vancouver dispenses refuge and reward in equal measures."
Of course, wanting and doing are very different things and the Netherlands come into the match knowing that they probably need a point to clinch a place in the knockout round , they are ranked just four places below Canada in world rankings and have proved very difficult to score against in their two opening games. Canada have to qualify, but want to finish top, Netherlands would be incredibly pleased with a point, both could achieve those aims if China do not win the other match being played simultaneously in Winnipeg and I feel that match could have a huge bearing on how the game in Montreal plays out.
I am quite taken with the Chinese and ahead of their win over the Dutch my preview went a lot like this.....
"The Canada- China game played out pretty much as I thought it might, ahead of which I wrote .............I am very interested in the Women's World Cup as a tournament, but am not going to get involved betting wise until Monday, today's matches should be very informative and I am keen to see China in action, they arrive with an extremely young squad, all aged between 19 and 26, Canada, whom they meet today, for example, have nine players aged 31+. The Chinese are building long term, looked very comfortable on the ball in the little I have seen of them and despite their youth, have played together as a group for some time. There is a lot of pressure on the Canadians as hosts and there will be a big crowd at the game, but this is also a concern for me with the Chinese, who started a recent friendly match against England very nervously, before settling into the game and impressing, all in all, I prefer to sit this one out.
I think the Chinese were again nervous at the beginning, but grew into the game, were denied by the woodwork, but were very disciplined and clearly came for a point, which they were within a minute or two of achieving. The youngsters are on a very steep learning curve and will come on a lot for that and will not face the same level of massed support against them this evening. Coach Hao Wei said we will see a far more attacking approach from his players this evening and that might be the case, but I do not think that a point would be a disaster for either and it is hard to see with four third placed teams making it through and China's "easiest" game to come, that four points and no heavy defeat that four points would not be enough. The coach felt he had spotted some "flaws" in the Dutch defence and was confident his team would be able to exploit them. There was certainly encouragement for the Chinese from the Netherlands opener, with New Zealand coming on very strong through the second period, creating the better chances and being denied what they felt was a strong penalty appeal. I think the conditions and playing surfaces here will take a big toll and opening day temperatures of circa 23 degrees, where said to be way, WAY higher "on field" with the the artificial turf holding and reflecting the heat and really having an effect on players and this is something I am sure we will be returning to later this week, with some teams sure to hold up better, or certainly be more used to playing conditions that the surface will generate. If there is any advantage in that regard today it will surely be with the Chinese, which is a bonus."
They edged that 1-0, with this time a late goal in their favour. A win today could see them take first place in the group, a point should be enough for second place, however, New Zealand can only progress with all three points and sooner or later they will have to throw caution to the wind and take the game to the Chinese and then they will be vulnerable. They are a very physical side and dangerous from set pieces and have an edge in this department against the Chinese, but they will leave themselves vulnerable once they push forward and at the end of the day, the Ferns have never won in 11 World Cup appareances and only once in seven starts at the Olympics and they do not get too many chances to test themselves at this level in competitive games. The two teams met in China early last year, with the hosts winning 1-0 , it was a close encounter, but I would argue that the Chinese are much improved since then and they would have learned a lot from that game, with ten of the New Zealand side who played that day featuring against Canada last week.
I expect both games to be cautious early, that has been the MO of this group, with only one goal coming inside 90 minutes in the four games so far.
I favour China to win narrowly once the Ferns are forced forward and out of their comfort zone.......China -0.5 ball 2.10 general quote....2.14 asian line/Sportmarket.
Canada, under coach John Herdman are 17-3-2 against non top 7 teams ( nations ranked below them) and I think a change of enviroment for them might re-invigorate the team, they desperately want to win the group and unless NZ race into an early and decisive looking lead in the other game, which seems unlikely, the easiest and least fraught way to do so, would be by winning this. They have given little away defensively and I feel they can edge this, I will suggest Canada -0.75 ball 1.95 asian line/Sportmarket, but if you are watching this match "in running", a better option might be to wait for the -0.5 ball line to reach the same 1.95 quote.
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Brazil: Serie A : Gremio Porto Alegre -Atletico Paranaense
Today's matches in Brazil are very tough to call, but I will suggest a little on this. We sided with Atletico Paranaense last weekend in their 2-0 defeat of Vasco da Gama, who were hard hit by international call ups and they meet an opponent with similar issues today. Those points took AP to the top of the table and a fifth stright win will do so again this evening, that might be a big ask, but a point would see them level with Sao Paulo and that looks an easier target and a result perhaps the host could also live with. This is traditionally a low scoring series, with the last five h2h meeting producing a maximum of one goal. Therefore, if AP could find a goal, it might well be enough for at least a share of the points and there is every indication that Gremio will be more vulnerable than usual this evening. They are without goalkeeper Marcelo Grohe and central defender Frickson Erazo ( one win in four without him this season, seven goals conceded) who are on international duty and right back Rafael Galhardo ( lost both starts he has missed 2-0....although both were road games) is injured and they lack the protection of key defensive midfieder Ramiro who has a long term injury and is yet to play this season ( nine goals conceded through six starts, four at the same stage last season). Atletico plus the draw for me.
Edit: Late news that Galhardo trained on Saturday and has been named in the squad, that changes things slightly, so I have reduced stakes, but the central spine of the team still looks weak.
Atletico Paranaense +0.5 ball 2.09 asian line/Sportmarket.
Gremio: Braian Rodríguez, Bruno Grassi, Douglas, Edinho, Fellipe Bastos, Galhardo, Geromel, Giuliano, Júnior, Lincoln, Luan, Lucas Ramon, Maicon, Marcelo Oliveira, Pedro Rocha, Rafael Thyere, Rhodolfo, Tiago, Walace,
Yuri Mamute , Vitinho.
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Euro 2016 Qualifying: Kazakhstan - Turkey
I am not keen on the qualifying criteria in general as there are too few must win , or dare no lose games. at least early on, but one or two sections are starting to look interesting and Group A is certainly one of those. Czech Republic and Iceland both have 12 points and Netherlands are trailing with seven, followed by Turkey with five. Even making the playoffs via third place is going to be a tall order for Turkey, they will need to really go on a roll and/or someone to slip up badly and cannot afford anything less than three points today. They have a very good record against Kazakhstan winning all five meetings, by a combined 18-2, including the earlier group meeting 3-1 in Istanbul, the two countries are close, as Turkey were the first state to recognize the independence of Kazakhstan and I suspect they might not put up too much resistance today. This is a massive game for Turkey and they have found a little form , following up that win with a 1-1 draw agaisnt the Netherlands in Amsterdam where they were denied all three points by a late, late equaliser and coming into this game with a confidence boosting 4-0 demolition of Bulgaria four days ago. Hosts have not scored in three and have conceded seven in their last two home starts, I cannot see beyond the away win and think they will find a second to take the pressure off. I favour both to score and Turkey to win by two or more, which has been the outcome in three of Kazakhstan's last four group games , 1-3, 1-4, 2-4 something like that (they are priced @ 15.0/ 29.0/76.0 respectively) , but I will keep things simple and opt for Turkey -1.25 ball 2.11 asian line/Sportmarket.
If you wanted to hold off for a better quote, or to "get on", only one of the 13 goals that the hosts have conceded in their last four starts have come inside the opening 21 minutes, but four have come between the 21st-33rd mins, so don't leave it too long !
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Sweden - Nigeria
These two are in the group of death (there is always one !), along with the USA and Australia , but with four of the six third placed teams also making it through to the knockout stage, it is not quite as daunting a prospect as it could be, but with a game against the US to play, neither will want to lose this opener and that might dictate how this will be played out. Anyway, for today, it is Nigeria I wish to discuss. Their squad is very young, with 18 players aged between 18-23 , but six of them were the core of the U20 team which lost after extra time to Germany in the 2014 World Cup, scoring 15 goals en route to the decider. The competition was held in Canada, so the FA and squad will know what to expect and they thrived on the atrificial turf, Asisat Oshoala who is now with Liverpool, was top scorer in 2014 and voted best player in the tournament. Nigeria were incredibly impresive there and I am sure that they have unearthered another gem or two and despite one or two false dawns previously, this might really be the "golden generation", I think that the squad is so young and yet "only" six from the U20 team have made it, kind of highlights their potential. They have arrived with a target of a top four finish and coach Edwin Okon said: “What they lack in experience, they make up with their skills, strength and strong mentality." With this spirit, I can beat my chest that we can get to the semi-finals." We are African champions and are going to prove it in Canada.” Forget what you might have seen from the Ivory Coast yesterday, this is far more cultured team, they themselves put four past IC in the African Championships and also showed they could keep things tight in a recent 0-0 draw with Canada, where they were trying out a new formation. Nigeria really could be the surprise package at these championships, Sweden admit that they know "nothing" about their opponent and I see no reason why they should be asked to give up more than a full goal, in a match which could be cagey early and avoiding defeat will be a first priority.
Nigeria +1.25 ball 2.12 asian line/Sportmarket.
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UEFA Champions League Final: Barcelona- Juventus
It seems a little pointless to overly discuss this match, as we all know the two teams so well, as do the oddsmakers. Both are worthy finalists and are probably the two best teams in Europe and if you took Lionel Messi out of the equation, there would not be too much between them, but the still only 27 yo, who seems to have been around for ever, might not even be at his peak yet and has looked at his very best this season, actually getting better on a month by month basis and we will be able to tell our grandchildren that we saw him play !
Messi has 58 goals from 56 starts this season and 30+ assists, in a team where he is "sharing" the goals with Neymar and Suarez, but two other things stand out for me, firstly,the respect that duo show the wee man, both have huge egos and accept without question that he is the star of the show and runs things and that says plenty, also, that he has missed one 45 minute period of La Liga action this season, otherwise playing in every minute of every league game and that tells you just as much about his love for the game and steely nature. This is a strong man and the fact that, with nothing to prove to anyone but himself, that after a poor last season, but his own impossibly high standards, he put himself on a very strict diet to get into the shape of his career this season and now he, and Barcelona, are reaping the dividends. I expect him to lead the Catalan giants to another title, but how to back them and get a decent price, both teams have scored in eight of the last ten Champions League finals, Barce have conceded in half of their CL matches this season and only failed to score in one of 12 opening halves in the competition, which we need for an open encounter. Juve will surley look to keep this tight and scoreless for as long as possible, but they had the same intention against Real Madrid in both legs of the semi final and conceded in both before the break. They will be without Giorgio Chiellini at the back today. they conceded twice at home to Real last season in his absence and whilst he has been ever present in the competition this season, Juve have conceded in 8 of the last 9 Serie A starts he has missed, at an average of 1.33 goals per game ( just 0.41 pg in other matches). If we get the early goal, this could become very entertaining and Juve can play their part in that, I would suggest, Barcelona to win, with both teams scoring 3.50-3.75 general quote, my alternative suggestion would have to be the "over".
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MLS: Houston Dynamo- New York Red Bulls
Red Bulls will doubtless be pleased to see the back of a very disappointing month of May, they went into it unbeaten through seven games, but have taken just four points from five starts since and fallen behind both main rivals DCU and Revolution in the race for first place in the Eastern Conference. Having said that, they do have at least two games in hand on both and feel they have been playing far better than recent results suggest, but they need to get back to winning ways. They surprised a lot of people early with their high pressing, high tempo style under new coach Jesse Marsch,but coaching/scouting reports soon arrived and teams then knew what to expect and sat back a little more and whilst Marsch is sticking with his game plan, it is and already has been tweaked a little. But teams are overloading the midfield and then hitting NYRB on the break and Dynamo have the personnel to do just that. New York have looked vulnerable defensively in recent starts and are in a tough place tonight with central defender Damien Perrinelle suspended, they will have to either bring in left back Roy Miller to play alongside Karl Ouimette who has already looked suspect even along side Perrinelle , or go with Andrew Jean-Baptiste, who has not played a first team game since September and never for Red Bulls, with alternatives injured. Miller seems most likely, but he had a bit of a nightmare in his last outing in the centre. They have also been overloading the left flank a bit recently , I am not sure if that is on purpose or not, but it leaves them vulnerable on the right and Chris Duvall at right back could be in for a long evening and a left back in the middle, is hardly going to help in that regard, with his natural instinct to shift in teh other direction. So, very hard to see them keeping Dynamo out for 90 minutes.
The hosts have backline problems of their own, with a central defensive partnership of Jermaine Taylor and David Horst giving huge cause for concern, the left back likes to get forward and the right has been moved across from the middle and this is very much a backline in transition, a work in progress. New York will love to see Taylor and Horst again, last time the pair faced Red Bulls was just over a year ago and they were run ragged, with NY scoring four unanswered goals, Bradley Wright-Phillips notched a hat-trick and he will fancy his chances this evening. That match was in the Big Apple, but Red Bulls have scored two or more in six of their last seven visits to Houston , with Dynamo doing likewise in five. With both teams having issues at the back, it is easy to see this trend continuing and I will opt for......
over 2.5 goals 2.14 asian line/Sportmarket.
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2-1?? i think it would 3-2 ...just was an opinion..but too good luck for your prediction.Leave a comment:
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Wah...luck for HSV with the handball...but the HSV was the better team yesterday..congrats...Originally posted by BettingMax View PostLeave a comment:
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My pick for 2nd leg relegation match Karlsruher SC - Hamburger SV:
Karlsruhe to beat HSV @ 2.2Leave a comment:
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FA Cup Final: Arsenal- Aston Villa
It was understandable that Villa switched off after securing EPL survival with this big final very much in mind, but a thumping at Southampton, where they were 5-1 down at the break (!) and a home loss to relegated Burnley was hardly a confidence boost and they must be a little fearful of how today could play out, especially if they were to concede early. The fact that they lost both league meetings by an aggregate 8-0 will not help, nor will the fact that the Gunners ran riot against WBA last week, ahead of which I wrote ....."The Gunners have looked a little jaded in front of goal recently and you will probably have to wait a long time before they go another three games at the Emirates without scoring, but they did manage 51 attempts on goals (17 on target) in the last two, averaging 71% possession and the likelihood is that they will not be too far away from those numbers today and I think we can expect a more positive outcome. They will be looking for some form to take into next week's FA Cup final and are under no pressure this afternoon, having now secured third place and the extra (two week ?) holiday that brings with it. Arsenal also have a fine final day record (unbeaten in nine) and have scored four goals in each of the three home games in that sequence, they have scored in all 17 EPL games against Albion, averaging over two per game and I expect normal home service to be resumed today, especially as the visitors seem almost certain to come with a FAR more positive attitude than either Swansea City or Sunderland."
That was over as a contest inside 15 minutes and Theo Walcott, who is still in contract negotiations, thrived in the central striker position with a hat-trick before the break. That was the perfect run out for the Gunners, who had very little luck in front of goal in starts leading up to that game and Arsene Wenger has a surplus of offensive options and decisions to make today and seems sure to go with a very attacking line up. Walcott Alexis Sanchez, Olivier Giroud (scored in his last three against Villa....all before the break) ,Mesut Ozil (scored in both games versus Villa this season), Aaron Ramsey and Santi Cazorla, are too much for most teams to handle, let alone a Villa backline that remains suspect.
On the plus side for the Villans, Tim Sherwood is a very offensive minded coach and he probably knows that Arsenal will be most vulnerable early, Hull City were two up inside nine minutes in last year's final with the Gunners and the North London side are prone to the odd first half debacle (3-0 down at Stoke at HT ). Villa have scored 71% of goals before the break, which is the wrong way round and Arsenal are incredibly strong in the 15 minutes before HT scoring an EPL high 19 goals through this period. A very attractive looking game in prospect, good chance for early action and I will suggest we go with....... "over" 1.25 goals FH betting 2.28 asian line/Sportmarket.
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