MLS: New York City- Toronto FC
This was meant to be the debut for Frank Lampard, but a minor knock has delayed that for another 7 days +, however, the official signing of Andrea Pirlo was announced this week and the prospect of both being available soon is a major boost both for the club and MLS football in general and neither are the type to ever give less that 100%. The starting eleven today will be fighting hard to keep their places and tickets will already have been sold with the crowd expecting to see the former EPL star and this will still be a bit of an occasion.
These two teams met three weeks ago in Ontario with NYC winning 2-0 , they were tactically very solid there, pressed incredibly well and David Villa who remains a top class striker took his two chances and to be honest, at 3-4 years younger than the other two "superstars" , he should still be playing at a higher level, he could score in MLS almost in his sleep ! Anyway, I liked that performance, defensively they allowed TFC little and dominated the match early and through the key middle part of the second half and on the road. The defence has also been tightened up with the signings of a pair of Spanish full backs in the incredibly experienced Andoni Iraloa and Angelino this week . With Toronto missing a lot of players today, I expect a follow up win.
The visitors arrrive without Jozy Altidore, Michael Bradley ,Ashtone Morgan, Jonathan Osorio and Quillan Roberts, all of whom are on international duty. This leaves them short through the central spine and with their remaining key player Sebatian Giovinco, left to carry most of the offensive load on his own, which is a big ask and will make him easier to mark.
New York City -0.5 ball 2.03 asian line/Sportmarket.
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Brazil: Serie A: Corinthians- Atletico Paranaense
Atletico Paranaense are losing their way after a solid start to their season and have conceded nine goals in their last five outings ( one win), two or more in four, including at home to goal shy local rivals Coritiba. They now face a second very tough road trip inside five days, after losing 2-0 at Cruzeiro last weekend and thoughts could quickly tun to a home game with Fluminense in three days time should they fall behind this evening.
Corinthians have scored twice in each of their last three home games (all wins) and despite being held scoreless at Goias last time out, they were hugely impressive, with great movement up front and some really inventive build up play especially in and around the box, they also looked good aerially.
The home coach is very pleased with the progress his team have made and has spoken of them as potential champions this week, they would go top 4 with all three points this evening and can collect those and possibly cover the handicap with ease if things fall for them in front of goal this evening.
Visitors arrive without suspended Walter who has been playing the lone striker role all season and that is a major loss.
Corinthians -1 ball 2.28 asian line/Sportmarket.
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Women's World Cup Final: US- Japan
We have a repeat of the 2011 final and the extremely well conditioned and prepared Japanese team have proved that win was no fluke and that they are perhaps the best team in the world and few will doubt that if they win this evening. In that previous final they twice came from behind to tie the US, including once in extra time and showed incredible mental strength to do so, I do not think that any other team in world football , would have been able to do so under similar circumstances. My preview of their quarter final win over Australia is reproduced below, that includes my pre tournament notes about how well prepared the Japanese were and how seriously they have taken their role as world champions and they have loved the four years since and I feel that once again they have been seriously underestimated by the oddsmakers and that there is no huge gulf between the two. Of course, this is not a coinflip as the US will have massive support in Vancouver, but Japan have already played here three times and will feel very much at home in stadium and city.They were disappointing against England in the semis, but I think that was the match in which all the pressure was on them, now it is very much on the US, they are going to have to make the running and they will be very vulnerable to the speed and technical ability of the Japanese. I think we might well see extra time again and I am happy to take .....
Japan +0.5 at 2.07 asian line/Sportmarket.
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MLS: Columbus Crew- New York Red Bulls
These two met here in Columbus earlier in the season with Red Bulls winning 2-1, the last three h2h meetings have all gone "over" with an average of 4.0 goals per game. I can definitely see that trend continuing today, with Crew's last eight home starts seeing seven go "over" with both teams also scoring in seven. Red Bulls have recorded back to back New York derby wins in the last week scoring seven goals in the process, but conceding in each, they might struggle to get up a little for a third "big" game inside seven days , especially defensively ,with a whole host of players missing due to injury and international call ups, including, central defender Karl Ouimette and full backs Roy Miller, Kemar Lawrence and Chris Duvall, which means no recognised experienced left back . Duvall has played all but one game this season on the right hand side of the backline and they conceded twice there and were not so beat up across the defensive line in that match. Crew will doubtless be out for revenge having lost already at home to Red Bulls and this looks a good chance to level the score, I am a little torn between goals and the home win, but have opted for ......
"over" 3 goals 2.28 asian line/Sportmarket Pro.......alternative would be the more commonly quoted 2.75 goal line.
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Copa America: Paraguay - Peru
These 3rd and 4th place playoff games almost always produce goals, it is easy to see why, there is usually one side a little more motivated than the other and both can easily let intensity slip for what seems largely a meaningless fixture at the end of a long competition, coming after a gruelling domestic campaign for many. I do suspect that both would have taken 3rd or 4th spot if you had offered it to them pre tournament , so maybe we will see both going for it this evening, but each suffered a very disappointing semi final result, albeit for different reasons and they could let things slide if falling behind.
However, both teams have players, Lucas Barrios of Paraguay and Peru's Paolo Guerrero who have a good chance to become the competition top scorer, that would be an honour both individually and for the nation and we can expect that to motivate both offensively. Paraguay are hard hit by injury and could be missing four players who started the semi final against Argentina in Roque Santa Cruz, Derlis Gonzalez, Bruno Valdez and Nelson Valdez, which would weaken them up top and especially on the right flank. Peru will be without suspended Carlos Zambrano from the backline and did have to play 60 minutes down to ten men after his sending off against the hosts, but that is counter balanced by having an extra day's rest and recovery time. Peru have impressed me more, I think they have a little more about them, look stronger defensively and at the ned of the day, Paraguay have only beaten Jamaica inside 90 minutes at the Copa and no team other team in nine starts and I have to suggest .......
Peru -0.25 2.12 asian line/Sportmarket.
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Copa America: Chile- Peru
With Brazil, who have always been a bogey team for Chile out of the competition and Argentina facing a rematch with a Paraguayan side they struggled with at the group stage tomorrow, things are starting to look hugely promising for the hosts, but with that comes added pressure, the level of expectation is through the roof and now, failure to reach the final will be seen as a bit of a disaster and if Peru can hang on in there early, they can use that to their advantage. Peru have looked very well organised at these championships and were comfortable quarter final winners over Bolivia, ahead of which I wrote ......"Peru have looked very solid keeping Colombia and Venuezuela scoreless and Brazil at 1-1 (after two early goals) for 87 minutes. They do not have any real weaknesses, look good in defence and midfield and have three veteran forwards in Paolo Guerrero, Jefferson Farfan and Claudio Pizarro who are all the wrong side of thirty and playing in what might be their last major championship, the trio have all played at the top level in Europe and have 60 international goals between them and can find a goal and one might be enough, to edge this. Peru feel they are improving and have more to offer and I would have been very keen on them for this if they were not without captain Carlos Labatón and defensive midfielder Josepmir Ballón, who are both suspended. That kind of tempers enthusiasm, but they are in their 7th straight Copa quarter final and will be looking to at least equal their 2011 3rd place finish. They were not adventurous enough in the semi final against Uruguay that year and I feel they will have learned from that.
"
They were 2-0 up inside the first quarter of the game, had a whopping 27 attempts on goal (hitting the woodwork twice) and Paolo Guerrero scored a hat trick, before Bolivia made the scoreline respectable with a late consolation goal, it was an impressive victory and this is a team on the up and improving game upon game. Chilean centre back Gonzalo Jara is suspended after putting his finger where it should not be put (!) and the hosts conceded two goals at home to the US in the only start he has missed in 2015. Mexico are the only team who have really taken the game to Chile in this competition and they scored three without the cream of their offensive talent and if Peru are prepared to have a go, I can definitely see a goal or maybe two for them and I am very keen on the "away" team with the handicap start. Peru use both flanks well and could create havoc in the box, with a big aerial advantage over Chile and I have to take .............. Peru +1 ball 2.03 asian line/Sportmarket.
Gary Medel and David Pizzaro ended the Bolivia game in the middle of the backline for Chile, they are each 1.71m tall, Guerrero and Claudio Pizzaro are both 1.84m + and this could be a real route to goal for Peru, who are a very tempting 6.5-7.0 general quote to score twice ("over" 1.5 goals) , how about something small on that....
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Brazil Serie A Coritiba- Cruzeiro
The Cruzeiro return to winning ways was stalled big time with that shock home defeat to Chapecoense last weekend, ahead of which I wrote ....."Hosts have been clubgowi favourites for the last two years and we were championing them from early in the first of their two successive title winning campaigns. I must admit that a third looked highly unlikely after a very slow start to 2015 with Copa Libertadores games taking precedence, but after being eliminated from that, they switched coaches with Vanderlei Luxemburgo taking charge and the veteran coach, who has had more clubs than Tiger Woods ( this is his 28th tenure in Brazil alone....but I might have miscounted !) has turned them around in double quick time. They have won all three games under him, including consecutive away wins, scoring three goals in each, one of those came at AMG who are looking for a title win themselves and they had conceded just three time in five previous starts. These performances are all the more noteworthy as they came with Cruz having a lengthy injury list and with key players away on international duty and this is a club who seem sure to get stronger the longer this season goes. All the talk this week has been about making the top 4 and they are determined to do so as soon as possible, two road games after this and all eyes on three points and a repeat of last years 4-2 win in this fixture would do nicely."
They did not really show up, but perhaps we can forgive them that blip, it was one of the "new" early kick offs and that might have been against them. They get defensive midfielder Willians back from suspension today , but lose another in Charles to injury and also lose central defender Bruno Rodrigo to a yellow card ban ( just 3 clean sheets in 18 starts without him and we are talking about a two time champion team). On the plus side, they also get De Arrascaeta back from international duty to bolster the midfield.
Coritiba are still struggling to get anthing going, or to pull away from the relegation zone, but a 2-2 draw at Atletico Paranaense last time out in a big derby game might at least signal the start of some kind of recovery, but the point came at huge cost and means that today they are without four suspended players in defensive midfielder Joao Paulo, right back Norberto Neto, midfielder Ruy and forward Wellington Paulista. The first two named are big defensive losses and with both teams weakened at the back, it is easy to see goals today and odds, like yesterday in the Avai game, look too big, these two also face very tough midweek road games and points are going to be easier to come by this evening, so each will surely press for the win. BTS and a Cruzeiro win for me. Last 10 h2h meetings in Curtiba have seen at least two goals, with the last five and 8 from 10 going "over", at an average of 3.5 goals per game. A rare two bet game .......
"over" 2.25 goals 2.17 asian line/Sportmarket.
Cruzeiro -0.25 ball 2.19 asian line/Sportmarket.
Coritiba: Bruno , Vaná, Henrique, Ivan, Leandro Silva, Luccas Claro, Rodrigo Ramos, Walisson Maia , Welinton,Esquerdinha, Fabrício, Helder, Ícaro, Lucio Flávio, Rodolfo, Rosinei , Thiago Galhardo,Giva, Kleber, Marcos Aurélio, Negueba, Paulinho , Rafhael Lucas.
Cruzeiro: Elisson, Fábio , Rafael, Ceará, Fabiano , Mayke, Grolli, Léo, Manoel , Paulo André, Pará, Bruno Edgar, Eurico, Henrique , Willians, De Arrascaeta , Marcos Vinícius, Allano, Henrique Dourado, Joel, Leandro Damião, Marquinhos , Willian.
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J-League:
FC Tokyo - Shimizu S-Pulse
FC Tokyo won for us last weekend when I wrote ......
"I guess the international break has come at the right time for Sagan who have conceded a whopping 14 goals in their last three league games, shipping three to Frontale was bad, six to leaders Urawa worse, but five to Velgalta , who had scored just three in their previous four starts was a bit of a low point and you can view the break as a chance to put things right, or as a very long 13 days to reflect and feel sorry for themselves !
They are starting matches quite well and incredibly, are unbeaten before the break all season ( 4-11-0) but losing their way afterwards and they have conceded 24 of 28 goals ( 86%) in the second half, next highest through that period is the 18 conceded by the bottom two clubs, Albirex Niigata and Shimizu S-Pulse and highlights just how poorly they are ending matches. FCT are a better team and are very tough to beat when leading (6-0-0 this season), so difficult to see them dropping this to a team leaking after the break, if they can edge ahead. But those Sagan stats offer hope should they fall behind and FCT have taken points from two of the four games in which they have trailed at the half. The visitors have won on their last two visits here and we backed them to win the last of those back in August and those notes are reproduced at the foot of this email. They are unbeaten in four and will be looking to break into the top three in the overall championship this season, they are a team we discuss a lot and there are a mountain of notes on them in the database and I have also reproduced a preview from earlier this season, their trip to Montedio Yamagata, which is particularly pertinent as I am going to finish these notes with the newly promoted club's trip to Hiroshima.
Anyway, they all provide background information and after their last match, a 2-1 win at Matsumoto Yamaga, where they raced into a two goal lead and then had to fight hard to hold on, they will have enjoyed the hard earned break. Coach Massimo Ficcadenti (see below) is very meticulous and will have used the two weeks wisely, his team came back after the World Cup break last summer on fire and were unbeaten in eight in all competions with an incredible 21-1 goal difference. They can edge this......"
The came from behind to win 2-1 with a pair of second half goals and the match played out perfectly for " in play" betting, with Sagan gain losing their way after the break, more of that later in the email.
Tokyo will want to finish the first stage with another three points which will ensure they go into the mini break in the top three in the overall (aggregate) championship. They did the double over Shimizu S-Pulse last season with a 7-1 aggregate, which included a 4-0 win in this fixture and with the visitors struggling big time, they collected just 15 points from the second half of last season and have just 13 from their first 16 games this season, that is circa 29 points over the full season and equates to relegation form and them some and they have a lot of work to do to remain in the top flight. The hosts will say a sad, yet fond farewell to top striker Yoshinori Muto after this game , who is joining FSV Mainz , he has 10 goals in 16 league games this season and had two goals and two assists in the games against SSP last season, he will want to say goodbye with a goal I am sure and I take FCT to record a comprehensive victory. Australian winger Mitchell Duke is suspended for the visitors, he scored the opening goal in the only road game that SSP have won in eight months.
FC Tokyo -0.75 ball 1.94 asian line/Sportmarket.
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Copa America: Bolivia- Peru
Bolivia have conceded seven goals in their last three halves of football at the Copa and whilst they one won of those games, it might be that they are reverting to type and have remembered just how poor they are and are supposed to be away from home ! We spoke about this ahead of their opener with Mexico......... "I mentioned yesterday how El Tri are seemingly prioritising their Gold Cup campaign, which begins in less that four weeks time, they are honouring their CONCACAF obligations and the fact that their opening game is in Chicago, which houses the second largest population of Mexican-born immigrants in the US, is probably also a deciding factor.
They have left a host of key players, including Chicharito, Guardado, Giovani dos Santos, Carlos Vela. plus several others at home and this is very much a B team, despite anything to the contrary that controversial coach Miguel Herrera might say. He is very stubborn and seems certian to stick with his preferred formation (basically a 5-3-2) without the players he needs to do it justice ! If they were playing anyone else today apart from Bolivia, I would like to oppose them, but their opponents are not very good away from their high altitude homeland and have not won an away game in over eight years and the one before that was four years earlier, so a defeat of South Africa in a friendly , where they were gifted a winning goal and opponents were denied an equaliser when the referee blew his whistle for half time with the ball en route to the net, to show for 12 years and some 50 away/neutral starts ! Mexico are below strength, have other priorities and will play a formation that will not suit personnel, Bolivia are not very good and cannot win outside their own country ! If we had to bet, I would have to suggest the draw @ circa 4.33 and I might take a (very) little on that just to keep me awake !"
They played out a 0-0 draw there and were then 3-0 up at the break against an Ecuador team who simply did not show up at these championships until it was time to go home ! They won that 3-2, but Ecuador missed a penalty and hit the woodwork and I doubt that Bolivia would have progressed from any other group.
Peru have looked very solid keeping Colombia and Venuezuela scoreless and Brazil at 1-1 (after two early goals) for 87 minutes. They do not have any real weaknesses, look good in defence and midfield and have three veteran forwards on Paolo Guerro, Jefferson Farfan and Claudion Pizarro who are all the wrong side of thirty and playing in what might be their last major championship, the trio have all played at the top level in Europe and have 60 international goals between them and can find a goal and one might be enough, to edge this. Peru feel they are improving and have more to offer and I would have been very keen on them for this if they were not without captain Carlos Labatón and defensive midfielder Josepmir Ballón, who are both suspended. That kind of tempers enthusiasm, but they are in their 7th straight Copa quarter final and will be looking to at least equal their 2011 3rd place finish. They were not adventurous enough in the semi final against Uruguay and I feel they will have learned from that. Peru -0.5 ball 1.93 asian line/Sportmarket.
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Germany- Sweden
I was not very complimentary about Sweden after their opener with Nigeria, maybe they were caught out by the severity of the conditions, they looked much better against the US, a team they know well , but a third draw with Australia left them needing help to qualify and a last 16 meeting with Germany was not how they saw this competition playing out for them. However, perhaps they will be more comfortable against another team they are far more familiar with and one against whom they have done well in the past. We can bet Sweden today at odds against, with a full handicap goal start, that would never have lost in nine previous meetings, including two earlier this year and given that Germany are unlikely to be too gung ho if they do take the lead and looked vulnerable after the break against Norway, that looks too big. Germany will doubtless start strongly again and Sweden might have to ride an early storm, but if they can see out the first ten minutes, I can see this becoming a bit cat and mouse and Sweden, who are very dangerous from set pieces, might even cause an upset.
Sweden + 1 ball 2.06 asian line/Sportmarket.
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Good article i liked the way you have presented the information..Leave a comment:
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England vs Colombia
Ahead of Columbia's win over France I wrote....
"Colombia has a potential world star in Yoreli Rincon and have also developed a bit of a physical side and France might be wary of that and might take the option to rotate. England did a job on wonderfully gifted Elodie Thomis on the left flank, she caused Colombia a lot of problems in the Olympics and they will have taken note of that . Famous last words, but I do not see France going out of they way to run in a hatful and a low scoring win , might still keep the option of avoiding Germany open, a wide margin victory will probably not. The US are the only team that have scored three against Colombia in the last five years and I see a one or two goal win for Les Bleus as the most likely outcome."
We took them +2.25 goals and they won 2-0, it was very much against the run of play, but Colombia were no less impressive for that and I would now argue that they have several, if not world class, then very close to it, offensive players, good options off the bench and are a tireless team with boundless energy and a bit of a physical side, they have a very good goalkeeper, which always gives you a chance and not many teams will play out the last 15-20 minutes better than them, all things considered, despite the early dominance of the French, they were pretty impressive. I watched some interviews with the English players yesterday and to a woman, they seemed to feel they were going to get kicked from pillar to post today, which seems odd and might influence how they approach this. It feels a bit drawish, England would like to avoid third place would could easily turn out to be a last 16 meeting with the defending champions, Japan, but as already indicated, I do not feel that they will finish as strongly as the South Americans. Colombia +0.75 ball 2.02 asian line/Sportmarket and a minimal stake on England to win by exactly one goal at a general 3.25-3.50 , which would mean that if Colombia score, as I think they will, England would need to score three for us not to turn a profit and they have shown no likelihood of doing so here in Canada and as previously discussed, it is a rare occurrence for the Columbians to concede that many.
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