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[paul8209]

Brazil Serie A Corinthians - Goias 15.10

A win for Atletico Mineiro last night saw them close to within two points of Corinthians at the top of the table and the leaders will want to extend that back up to five by following suit this evening. The top two will have clear priorities ahead of their meeting in Belo Horizonte in 17 days time, AMG will be looking to reduce the deficit to three or less, Corinthians will want to make the trip with as big an advantage as possible, but definitely 4 points +, which would take the pressure off that potentially title deciding game.

The hosts have been very solid against bottom ten teams, posting a 7-0-0 record at home with a 16-1 goal difference, winning five by 2+ goals, on the road they are 5-3-0 versus the same teams and remember how difficult it is to win away in Brazil, that means that they have collected 2.6 pts per game when playing any bottom ten side and are keeping a clean sheet in 67% of those meetings. Gois are in trouble, two points from safety, they are not yet a lost cause, as the four teams directly above them are all within three points, they are going to have to up their game , but I doubt it will be in fixtures like this, or Sunday's trip to Santos which will ultimately decide their fate, but how they fare against the other strugglers and in all home starts from now on in. Corinthians have scored five goals in two of the last three h2h meetings in SP and whilst that might not be possible this evening, I do expect another two goal win . Since early June when Corinthians hit their stride, they are 8-1-0 next time out when coming off a draw or defeat , they get a couple of defenders back tonight who were not available for the 2-2 draw at Ponte Preta last time out and it is difficult to see Goias stopping another bounce back performance. Also returning from international duty and named as starters are Gil and Renato Augusto, they should have been three up at PP before some very sloppy and un-Corinthians like defending let the home side take the lead and we can expect a far more professional and disciplined showing this evening and with so many more options, a comfortable win.

Corinthians -1.25 ball 2.25 asian line/Sportmarket.

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[paul8209]

MLS: FC Dallas- Vancouver Whitecaps

MLS: FC Dallas- Vancouver Whitecaps

These two met last week in Vancouver, the match was a bit of a bore and ended 0-0 with injury hit Whitecaps earning the point they needed to secure a post season spot and FCD happy to play along. That will not be the case today, the winner will go top of the Western Conference and that has huge, playoff implications. Actually, a point would be enough for Dallas, but they really want that #1 ranking and any advantage they can get over Galaxy, who have beaten them in five straight meetings in LA.Therefore, we can expect them to push for the win and they are a perfect 6-0-0 at home to Whitecaps.

The visitors arrive very short handed, missing attacking midfielders Pedro Morales and Nicolas Mezquida who are both injured, fellow offensive players Mauro Rosales and Cristian Techera and centre back Pa-Modou Kah picked up knocks in the last game and are listed as doubts, with Vancouver having one eye on the playoffs, in addition, Kendall Waston is away with Costa Rica, Darren Mattocks with Jamaica, Marco Bustos, Kianz Froese, and Sam Adekugbe with Canada and Caleb Clarke (Canada U-23 national team) and all six saw game time yesterday. Head coach Carl Robinson talking about who saw available said that "if they could walk, they were on the plane" and this is going to be a very tall order for them. Seven of the players named above would be termed regulars and have contributed 48% of all goals scored this season, one or two might make it, but they are definitely without much of their creative spark.

FC Dallas -0.75 ball 2.16 asian line/Sportmarket.

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[IceFudge]

England would've scored more if not for Estonia's keeper, who was in top form.

Euro qualifiers - Double chance Czech Republic or Draw looks like a great option at 1.42 on bet365.
English League 1 - Barnsley (home) vs bottom-of-the-table Crewe. Barnsley or Draw at 1.17

[paul8209]

European Qualifiers England -Estonia

England have dominated this group and are a perfect 8 from 8 so far, scoring 26 goals, at least two in each of seven, only coming up short in the reverse fixture between these two in Tallinn, when they had to wait a long time to score the winning goal. That is par for the course for England in this group stage, with just three of those 26 goals coming inside the first 30 minutes, with nine in the middle third of the game and 14 in the final half hour. Under Roy hodgson they have looked to play themselves into games before really pushing on, big gulf in class of course and whilst England have already qualified, they will get crucified in the media if they do not beat "little old" Estonia and I am sure that they would like to finish with a 10/10 record. The match is not a sell out, but a crowd of 75,000 is expected and will be demanding of a result, offensively the visitors do not offer much and they have not scored on the road in a group game and only twice in nine competitive away starts.However, they are tight at the back (just six goals conceded in qualification) and will come very much with damage limitation in mind and looking to keep England at bay for as long as possible. Home win of course and they should be up to definitely a second and probably a third goal, but let's wait and hold out for a better quote, if England score before that , no damage done ! Pitch might also be a bit of a leveller, as there have been rugby and NFL games played on the hallowed turf in recent weeks, but in the end it should not matter too much.

England -2 goals as soon as the "in running" line reaches a minimum quote of 2.0 (as long as they are not already leading).

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[paul8209]

MLS: New York Red Bulls - Montreal Impact

I am not going to spend too long on this, if Red Bulls win, it will probably be along with a few goals and if not, they are as likely to lose as anything else, not that they have been particularly hit and miss this season, especially compared to previous campiagns, infact, they have been rather consistent, but when they are not firing, there has still been the odd real blip like the recent 5-2 home defeat to Orlando City.

Montreal are in the final play off spot in the East, but do have two games and one point in hand of the same said Orlando, who are the only team with a realistic chance of stopping Impact from taking that post season place, but the away team have posted just two away wins all season and have lost all four previous h2h meetings in the Big Apple, conceding at least four goals in three of them.

New York are top of the Eastern Conference and baring a 17 goal + swing (which isn't going to happen), would seal first place and #1 post season seed with all three points, it would also ensure they stayed ahead of FC Dallas (Western Conference) in the Supporters Shield race, which is the award for the team with the best MLS regular season record. so , every incentive for them.

Impact lost for the fisrt time in seven starts under interim boss Mauro Biello , who took over from Frank Klopas at the end of August, away to Orlando at the weekend in a 2-1 defeat. Star player Didier Drogba only saw 30 minutes from the bench in what I read was his first ever game on "Turf", playmaker Ignaccio Piatti again missed out, he did return from Argentina on Monday and trained yesterday, but he is not certain to be ready to start. They are also dealing with some injuries and have seven players away on international duty , of which I would probably only call two regular starters, but it greatly reduces options and if Piatti is unavailable and it is hard to see how he can be up to playing 90 minutes, they are going to be very short of creative flair with Johan Venegas away with Costa Rica.

NYRB have players away with national teams too, but do not seem so hard hit and with better alternatives and I am also "keen" on the fact that Impact are 0-1-6 in their next away start after a road turf game and have conceded 11 goals in losing the last four (2+ in each).

New York Red Bulls -1 goal 2.09 asian line/Sportmarket.

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[paul8209]

Football League Trophy Crawley Town - Southend United

If United are committed to this tie, they should win and quite possibly with a degree of comfort. Town are struggling after relegation last seaon are yet to win at home and sit in 21st place in League 2, just three points off the bottom of the entire Football League, they have scored just 10 home goals (16 starts) in 2015 and are considered a bit of a soft touch at the Broadfield Stadium currently. They are coming off very lengthy trips to Newport and Plymouth last week and boss Mark Yates admitted that the league is their only priority. The club are now on limited resources, after being big spenders in recent years and it is always an issue when the money finally runs out, they were forced to try and bring in some bargain basement signings in the summer and they were trialling lots of players right through pre season.

Tonight they have Lanre Oyebanjo and Jon Ashton sidelined with injuries, Freddie Woodman (ever present goalkeeper) and Josh Yerworth are on international duty and Rhys Murphy is cup tied . That will mean a backline with probably an average age of 20 yo, with 19 yo goalkeeper Callum Preston making his debut behind them !

Southend are doing well in their first season back in League 1 and sit just two points off the playoff spots, they are coming off a 1-0 defeat at leaders Burton Albion at the weekend where they felt they were the better team and deserving of at least a point, infact, they were very angry that they lost. These are two teams very much heading in opposite directions and as I said at the start of these notes, the visitors should be able to ease home here if they are motivated and the loss at Burton should ensure they are and I simply cannot see Town being strong enough at the back to put up too much resistance.


Southend United -0.5 ball 1.97 asian line/Sportmarket.

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[paul8209]

La Liga Levante-Villarreal 4.10

Villa are having a huge season and currently sit top of La Liga and making good Europa League progress. I am not sure how long they can hold off the big 3, but with Barce dropping three points last night and the other two meeting in the Madrid derby this evening, they will surely want to make hay while the sun shines and take advantage. Three points will ensure they remain top going into the break and that would also open up a five point advantage over the Catalan giants. Perhaps more importantly long term, at least in Champions League terms, is the fact that they are already seven points ahead of big rivals Valencia and seven up on Sevilla (who have already played this weekend) and if they could extend that today it would be a very healthy advantage.

Levante are struggling. without a win in ten and having conceded nine in their last three starts, they have given up five goals in their last three home fixtures, conceding in each and have already lost to Villa here in pre season, 2-0. In La Liga, Villarreal have won on six of their last seven visits, scoring 2+ in all wins and I strongly favour another fairly comfortable road derby win for the away side, with an already poorly performing hos,t now missing three key players in Angel Truijillo, Verza and Ruben Garcia, which leaves them weaker in the centre of the backline and across midfield where Villa are very strong.

Villarreal -0.75 ball 2.23 asian line/Sportmarket.

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[paul8209]

France Ligue 2 Nancy - Ajaccio

France Ligue 2 Nancy - Ajaccio 2.10

Breakthrough win for Ajaccio last round (1-0 vs Auxerre) and it surely provided a massive confidence boost and we get a big price on them to follow up this evening. Nancy are expected to be a big player at this level , but they have not won in four and have dropped points at home to Niort (similar level to Ajaccio) and Auxerre (defeat) in that sequence and goals are proving hard to come by for the home side. They are also without suspended defensive midfielder Diallo Guidileye and with Coulibaly and Aït Bennasser also sidelined, that leaves them weakened across the middle and especially short of options in the holding role. This is my potential upset of the day and I will probably try and take a little on the visitors to win at circa 7.0-7.5 which seems too big , but for my "official bet............... Ajaccio +0.75 at 2.17 at Sportmarket

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[paul8209]

Europa League PAOK - Borussia Dortmund 1.10

Back to back draws have seen Borussia Dortmund fall four points off title pace in the Bundesliga and I do not doubt for one moment that their trip to face leaders Bayern in Munich at the weekend will take priority and team news very much suggests that ,with a host of players left behind in Germany, with Sunday very much in mind. Borussia had to come from behind to claim all three points against Krasnodar on group Matchday 1 and we discussed earlier in the season about how their focused dropped in the playoff round versus Odd, when they conceded five goals and trailed 3-0 inside 25 minutes in the away leg. They have conceded two away to Hannover and at home to Darmstadt recently and this is a team with all their real talent at the other end of the pitch and they do let their intensity drop against lesser opponents. PAOK have just found some form winning their last three starts and scoring two or more in each and they will be up for this with Dortmund a big name visitor, two offensive minded teams and goals look on the cards.

PAOK to score "over" 1.5 goals at a general quote of 3.50, alternative would have to be "over" 3 on the asian line.

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[paul8209]

England League 1 : Colchester United- Bradford City 29.09

Colchester were largely outplayed last round, but won 2-1 with the Gills missing a penalty and a whole host of late chances, defensively the U's have been underfperforming, but they certainly have goals in them , they are battling hard and must be confident after that series of results and they followed up with another three points at Swindon Town with a 2-1 win on Saturday. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, a lot went their way in that game with Town suffering a series of injuries both immediately before and early during the match .

Today they hosts Bradford City who were amongst the pre season promotion favourites, but who find themselves nearer the drop zone than playoffs , although a couple of wins will soon address that, they looked to be running into some form before they stalled with a 2-0 home defeat to a surging Peterborough United at the weekend in front of an almost 18,000 crowd ( City are a massive club at this level) and will want to immediately bounce back this evening. They will have to do so without midfielder Paul Anderson who broke his leg against Posh and again fate does seem to be smiling a little on United. However, City have played really well in their last three road starts and they, like every team who has faced United in recent weeks will get chances and probably numerous ones and I would be amazed if there were not goals in this for both teams. City are hard hit by injury and weakened on both flanks and the home side could have a lot of joy out wide and despite all their defensive failings, have scored 14 in their last six starts, two or more in each and a feature of those games has been early goals, with 14 before the half hour mark in their last seven games, two or more in six and that always helps with "overs" !


over 2.75 goals 2.13 asian line/Sportmarket.

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[paul8209]

Brazil Serie A Flamengo - Vasco da Gama


Vasco have had a nightmare season back in the top flight, but, after looking dead and buried, 10 points from four games have give them a survival lifeline and they could yet launch the great escape, masterminded by head coach Jorginho who took charge at the club last month. It took a couple of matches for him to get his ideas across, but players are in sync with the coach now and he as a former Flamengo coach and player, will know what this huge Rio derby means to club and supporters. Flamengo are the only team in Brazil to have collected more points on the road and their home record of 6-4-5 in on a par with the teams battling the drop, the two rivals are meeting for the sixth time this season in all competitions and Vasco have only lost once and will be straining every sinew today to ensure that #2 doesn't come this evening at the Maracana. Flamengo have conceded six goals in losing their last two starts and have shipped the most goals of any team outside the bottom six and by some way and with Vasco having scored twice in each of their last three starts, there will surely be a goal or two in this for the visitor and one is often enough to claim a result in this most keenly fought derby fixtures, with none of the last ten Serie A meetings being decided by more than a goal .


Vasco da Gama +0.75 ball 2.08 asian line/sportmarket.

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[paul8209]

Premier League Newcastle United- Chelsea


I do not know what to make of United after last week's performance, they were 2-0 down and effectively out of the game at home to Watford and I spoke at the time about how vital that match was with some very difficult fixtures on the near horizon

They had the chance to get some momentum back with a visit from Championship side Sheffield United in midweek and whilst I appreciate that it is all about survival for the Magpies ,they really needed a win, just to give the club/splayers and supporters a lift, but they lost that too and the boos have been ringing out at St James' Park. Their play has been a little one dimensional with a huge number of crosses in the box ( 40 versus Watford) and few finding their intended target , circa 10%. Boss Steven McClaren has spoken about a club in crisis this week and that his players lack belief, his team have won just three times in 2015 and the head coach just 3 in 21 overseeing a poor end of the season at Derby County and they are both short of confidence and why winning one of the previous two games was essential.

Chelsea could afford to field a B team and score four at Walsall in midweek and are starting to build a little momentum.

They are without Diego Costa today, but Chelsea are unbeaten in his absence ( 8-4-0) and really need to win this to continue their long climb up the table, by kick off, two or three of the other big 4 are likely to have posted wins and it will be virtually game over in terms of the title and before the end of September for the West london side, if they do not do likewise.


Chelsea -1 ball 2.19 asian line/Sportmarket.

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[paul8209]

France Ligue2 Tours- Creteil 22.09


We should expect goals in this midweek round and this is a fixture which normally provides them. Tours scored eight in the two meetings last season, Creteil have scored in the last five, including two + in three of four and the last four h2h games have gone "over", averaging 4.25 goals. Tours have conceded in six of their last seven starts, with only toothless Sochaux coming up short and have fallen behind in their last three, but took points from two of those games, so a nasty habit, but they are resilient and heads do not drop when they concede.

You are never quite sure what you will get from them and despite losing 1-0 at home to Valenciennes on Friday, Creteil are happy, or rather will get sucked into playing a very open style if opponents do likewise and are prepared to go toe to toe, it is in their DNA and these two teams, despite having slightly more defensive minded coaches now, cannot help themselves, one goal will lead to 3-4...

Tours : Kamara, Westberg - Bouhours, Cillard, Gradit, Louvion, Milosevic - Agouazi, Bergougnoux, Khaoui, Maouche, Raveloson, Santamaria - Bosetti, Kouakou, Malfleury, Miracoli, Tandia.

Créteil : Kerboriou, Merville - Di Bartolomeo, Diedhiou, Esor, Hérelle, Konongo, Mahon de Monaghan - Augusto, Benaniba, Lesage, Mollet, Montaroup - Andriatsima, Dabo, Sackho.

over 2.5 goals 2.11 asian line/Sportmarket.

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[paul8209]

Premier League: Newcastle United- Watford

Premier League: Newcastle United- Watford 19.09

We have not discussed United much this season, but ahead of their league opener with Southampton I wrote ...."United have invested heaving in the summer with new boss Steve McClaren signing Chancel Mbemba, Aleksandar Mitrovic and Georgino Wijnaldum, names which will roll off Geordie tongues (!) signed for circa 50m €. The former England coach will be desperate to hit the ground running and erase all thoughts of that disasterous finish to last season, which saw the Magpies collect just 10 points from 18 starts in 2015, before a final day win over West Ham United which confirmed their safety. That was scary and not just the results , but the level of performance, which was simply unacceptable. Big job for McClaren, but he is up to the task and I expect an upbeat showing from the Magpies today, however, whether that will be enough to beat the Saints is open to question and the visitors have scored ten goals in the last three meetings and 15 in the last six. Feel that we will see both on the scoresheet today , which has been the case in the last three meetings here in the North East."

That finished 2-2 and it was performance full of promise for long suffering (try suppporting a L1/l2 team for a few decades !) Geordies after what they had witnessed last season, they have not been able to build on that, but a point at Old Trafford and a second half showing at Upton Park last week have given reason to feel that first win was on it's way, we can forgive them the home loss to Arsenal, but failure to win today is likely to signal the end of the period of grace for McClaren and his new signings and I would call this a pivotal game in United's season and the boss has spoken about it in similar terms since the defeat on Monday. They are without suspended Aleksandar Mitrovic again today and have a couple of injuries and yes, they are trying to build a new team, but we are now six games in and from today, these are only going to be seen as excuses and now they need three points. Watford and their style of football will not be quite the surprise to McClaren it is to other EPL teams, he faced them twice last season when in charge at Derby County ( four points and four goals) ,with the visitors missing suspended holding midfielder Valon Behrami and centre back Miguel Britos, their defensive spine options are lessened and with the Hornets a team who have also struggled for goals ( just one in five ) since opening day, this is as good an opportunity as it is going to get for the Magpies, with Chelsea and Manchester City up next

Newcastle United -0.25 ball 2.11 asian line/Sportmarket.

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[paul8209]

England League 1: Sheffield United -Colchester United 15.09


This is another match where I cannot agree with the odds, but this time I am firmly behind the hosts. United are 4-0-2, all games have been decisive with the four wins and two defeats all coming by at least two goals which is unusual, the Blades are coming off a 3-1 home defeat to Bury at the weekend, but dominated that game and on another day would have won by a couple of goals. They will be very motivated to get back on track , not least as they face back to back Yorkshire derby games after this, starting with a massive trip to Bradford City on Sunday in front of the television cameras. They desperately need maximum points this evening.

Squad size and fitness levels, boss Nigel Adkins works his teams as hard as anyone outside the top two divisions, should give United an advantage with the quick turnaround and he is certainly not underestimating Colchester, despite them not having posted a win yet, he has had them watched several times and gave a very detailed and good report on the U's on the Blades website yesterday. The visitors are operating on a different level to the hosts and have tight bedgetry restraints, they have conceded four in their last 12 competitive starts and the three they shipped at Chesterfield on Saturday give real cause for concern, as the Spirites played over 75 minutes with ten men and United only equalised very late when the home side just ran out of energy. Trips to Chesterfield and Sheffield United back to back are tough regardless of how many men they faced at the weekend and they conceded seven to Sheffield United in two defeats last season, losing 4-1 here in February.

If the hosts win, the handicap should not be an issue, so .....

Sheffield United -1 ball 2.25 asian line/ Sportmarket.

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