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[paul8209]

Brazil Serie A Goias - Coritiba

Goias are only ahead of Coritiba on goal difference and the truth is that it is going to be very tough for either team to survive without winning this game and especially Goias who have two really difficult looking road games up next, but neither seems capable of keeping a clean sheet and they will have to step up offensively to earn the three points. Both teams have seen 5 of their last six starts produce at least three goals and neither has a kept a clean sheet in seven, the reverse fixture ended 1-1 and both to score is the minimum I can see from this, but they each need more. I am not overly concerned with team news at this time of the season, but Coritiba have named quite an adventurous looking squad and the got a major boost with the news that top scorer Henrique Almeida is now available to play, four of his last six goals have come on the road and I slightly favour his team to edge this , let's say 1-2, but I feel there is better value on goals.

Eight of the last nine h2h meetings here in Goiania have gone "over", the other ended 1-1 and Coritiba have scored in eight of those, twice in four. Goais have scored in in 10 of 11 h2h games home and away, notching two or more in seven.

Goias: Paulo Henrique , Renan, Everton, Gimenez , Rafael Forster,Alex Alves, Felipe Macedo , Fred, David, Juliano, Patrick , Ygor, Arthur, Felipe Menezes , William Kozlowski, Bruno Henrique, Carlos Eduardo, Erik, Ruan , Zé Love.

Coritiba: Vaná , Wilson,Carlinhos, Juan, Juninho, Leandro Silva, Luccas Claro, Rodrigo Ramos , Walisson Maia,Alan Santos, Cáceres, Esquerdinha, João Paulo, Lucio Flávio, Ruy, Thiago Galhardo , Thiago Lopes,Guilherme Parede, Henrique Almeida, Michel, Negueba , Rafhael Lucas.

over 2.25 goals 2.16 asian line/Sportmarket

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International Friendly: Turkey vs Greece

Big rivalry between these two nations, both have a bit of a reputation for perhaps not always giving of their best in friendly matches, but we can expect the competitive juices to be flowing tonight. However, Greece really are in a bit of a mess, failed to qualify fairly miserably for Euro 2016, finishing bottom of a group containing the Faroe Islands and no major footballing "giant" and failing to score in six of ten, including four home games. They have posted just one win in the last 12 months and even managed to concede three goals in that victory, they are coming off a 1-0 defeat to Luxembourg on Friday and rivalry or not, I still think it will be very difficult for them to suddenly find form and to lift their game. Turkey qualified for the Euros as the best third placed team after looking in big trouble early in qualification, but they have played solidly over the last year, through which they are unbeaten through ten starts (eight wins), including taking four points from the Netherlands, winning in the Czech Republic and perhaps most importantly for us today, winning all three friendly matches.

This match will have special importance for Terim, he has been wildly successful on the domestic and world stage and was given the honour of having a stadium named after him last year, the Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, guess where this is being played ? He will lead a team out in the stadium named after him for the first time and surely he will have his troops extra pumped for this match against a real rival. If it was me, I would really want to win this and it feel like a lot of additional motivation and in friendly matches that is always a bonus. Turkey to end the year unbeaten and with a two goal win.

Turkey -0.75 ball 2.06 asian line/Sportmarket.

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England League 1 Colchester United vs Coventry City

I spoke a lot early season about how gung-ho United were and they have returned to those free and easy ways recently, with four of their last six starts producing five or more goals, with two having eight, they have conceded two or more on five occasions in that sequence. City have conceded two or more in each of their last four, games which have averaged 4.75 goals, including a home loss to lower league Northampton Town last weekend. Two of those other games were against teams in freefall who cannot buy a win and it is hard not to see them giving up a couple today against a host who have a host of offensive options, but are very vulnerable at the other end of the pitch. United look to have unearthered a natural goalscorer in young striker Macauley Bonne, who only turned 20 at the end of last month and celebrated with four goals in the FA Cup last week and playing alongside a still only 24yo Marvin Sordell who is looking to resurrect his career after a series of big money Championship moves, this looks a potent and fast improving pairing. Goals !

over 3 goals 2.17 asian line/Sportmarket.

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World Cup Qualifiers Ecuador- Uruguay

I doubt many would have thought these two would come into this game with six points each on board. Ecuador have posted back to back 2-0 wins over Argentina and Bolivia with all four goals coming after the 82nd minute and given that and the fact that a draw would not be a terrible result for them, plus second top scorer Enner Valencia is missing, they might be content to play a cagey game through the opening period. Uruguay have posted wins over Bolivia in the high altitude of La Paz, which at 3,640 m above sea level makes tonight's game in Quito ( 2,850m) nothing to fear and then a demolition of Columbia, by a combined 5-0.

In addition to their striker, Ecuador will be without his namesake, Antonio Valencia tonight, he was the star man in both opening wins , he played with huge confidence in Buenos Aires and will be sorely missed tonight. The host have a win-able game in Venezuela in midweek and 4 points from these two would be fantastic and two not a disaster, I feel they will be very cautious early and that should allow Uruguay to get a toehold in the game, the visitors would love a point as it would take all the pressure off them ahead of the visit from Chile on Tuesday and I think that Uruguay and the handicap start is the way to go.The fact that they beat Columbia 3-0 without not just Luiz Suarez , but also Edinson Cavani (who returns tonight) is terrific for the future of Uruguayan football and this tiny nation looks to have another fine crop of players coming through with 9-10 youngsters (sub 23 yo ) named in the last two squads, most of whom are already with "big" clubs and they look a potential fast improver .

Uruguay +0.25 ball 2.29 asian line/Sportmarket.

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MLS Cup playoffs: New York Red Bulls - DC United

New York were the best regular season team in the MLS, clinching the Supporters Shield with a final day regular season win at Chicago Fire. my notes for which are reproduced at the foot of this email and they also include a few remarks on DCU who had played Fire the week before. They won the first leg 1-0 and will progress tonight with a draw of course, by the way, the away goal rule applies to all play off games (but not after extra time), but I do not see this playing out that closely and I expect a relatively easy win for the home team. United will have to gamble for the win and take chances and that will allow space for Red Bulls to exploit and I can see a scenario where DCU let this slide if and when they fall behind tonight. NYRB have won the last five h2h meetings in the Big Apple, the last four without conceding , including two this year (2-0/3-0) and at a time when DCU were in much better form, United having ended the season, that win over Fire aside, meekly. These two ended the regular season separated by 9 points across 34 games, but there was a 19 point swing over the second half of the campaign ( 17 games) and NY have been the better side by far for four months.

New York Red Bulls -1.25 goals 2.07 asian line/Sportmarket.

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France Ligue2 Clermont - Creteil

This will surprise few of you ....... I am sticking with the "over" in a Creteil game. Creteil lost 2-1 last week , that meant 8 "overs" in 10 starts, with all those games averaging 3.1 goals with gung-ho Creteil only keeping a clean sheet in one and either scoring or conceding twice in nine. Clermont have also been involved in some free scoring games, with their last ten starts producing a goal more (32), with seven "overs" and both teams scoing in nine. As a starting point it doesn't get much better than that and when we add into the mix how Creteil play, meaning we know that those numbers are not a blip, but what we should expect , there remains value in the quote for this to again produce three or more goals.

Hosts are weakened on the right flank today by injury and suspension, Creteil are missing central defender Vincent DI Bartolomeo, both to score looks a given and it is hard to see either being happy with just that.......

Clermont : Jeannin, Caillard - Avinel, Djellabi, Martin, Rivieyran, Salze - Boulaya, Ekobo, Espinosa, Genest, Hunou, Jobello, Reale - F.Diedhiou, Dugimont, Rivas.

Créteil : Kerboriou, Merville - Diedhiou, Esor, Hérelle, Ilunga, Mahon de Monaghan - Augusto, Bourgeois, Lafon, Loriot, Lesage, Mollet, Sangaré - Andriatsima, Dabo.

over 2.75 goals 2.38 asian line/Sportmarket.

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[paul8209]

Champions League Olympiakos - Dinamo Zagreb


Olympiakos have put themselves in a strong position to qualify behind Bayern Munich in this group and if they win tonight, might even be able to do so with a narrow loss a home to Arsenal on Matchday 6. They won on the road against the Gunners and in Zagreb two weeks ago in a hard fought 1-0 win, that has put Dinamo under pressure and they will have to look for the win this evening . I spoke ahead of their maych with Arsenal about how the lack of domestic competition worked against Dinamo in the CL and whilst they won that game, they rode their luck at times and have failed to score, conceding six in two CL starts since. Infact, this is a club in "crisis" having just lost back to back league games, which has had the stats men searching through the record books to find out the last time that happened ! They were unbeaten last season and were 51-19-2 over the previous two years, until the first of those recent defeats . They have a host of injuries to key players and have travelled with confidence at a very low ebb and if they fall behind tonight, a collapse like we saw in Munich (four goals conceded in 15 minutes) is not out of question.

Olympiakos -1.5 ball 2.28 asian line/Sportmarket.

from Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

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England Championship Derby County - QPR

I was not terribly impressed by Rangers on Friday night, they did hit the woodwork twice, but neither attempt look like it was going in, a bit of a looping head dipped at the last moment and caught the top of the bar, a shot that looked to be going wide just clipped the outside of the post, at least that is how I saw things through my rose tinted ( red and white ?) glasses ! Those aside, they created nothing at all, their build up play was poor and to be honest, a little clueless at times with no game plan and very little passion. I do not like highlighting coaches in trouble, but have now done it twice in this email and if Chris Ramsey is still in charge at Christmas, he will have done well and I will be surprised. The amazing thing is that QPR are the third worst passing team in the Championship, it is incredble as they play so many aimless sideways balls, so my instinct would be that those stats should be "good" and that they are bad, has got a lot of alarm bells ringing in my head !. Defender Clint Hill was one of the few to show any passion, but even as he left the field limping with a knock, I heard one wag say "that was the fastest he had moved all night", he is missing tonight and there are very few positives in this team right now. Rangers have conceded 13 goals in the last six matches Hill has sat out, including six in the last two on the road and this match has the potential to get ugly !

After the last home game vs Wolverhampton (4-2) I wrote "that they looked very good at times, but I would argue nowhere near their peak and it is a little scary to think of the offensive threat they pose and the damage they could and will cause, once they really hit their stride."

Derby won last round 3-0 and it could easily have been five or six goals and afterwards boss Paul Clement said:"I am learning about my players all the time. "They are showing so many different qualities now, whether it be the team spirit or dealing with different styles of football."The momentum is really building and we are enjoying the way we are playing and we are full of confidence.

They will be without George Thorne tonight after he picked up a fifth yellow card, but this is a very strong squad, highlighted by Bryson, Hendrick and Bent coming off the bench at the weekend and you would struggle to find another second tier team for whom that trio would not all start. If Rangers play like they did on Friday and judging by comments on their forums that was a typical recent performance and County play even close to their usual standard, the visitors "cannot" win this. To get a result, they need to greatly improve and County have an off night and it is hard to see either happening right now.

Derby County -1 ball 2.26 asian line/Sportmarket.

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Brazil Serie A: Santos - Palmeiras

Brazil Serie A: Santos - Palmeiras

Santos progressed to the final of the Copa do Brasil (beating Sao Paulo 3-1 in the semi final home leg, winning both legs by that scoreline actually), that now means that they have now scored an incredible three goals or more in NINE straight home games ! I guess that sequence will end soon, but I am not so sure it will be today, with Palmeiras having conceded eght in their last three road games and having played out a very tense Copa semi final of their own in midweek, seeing off Fluminense on penalties. Flu dominated that game after the break, pulled a goal back to level things on aggregate and had another disallowed and felt very hard done by, after creating three times as many attempts on goal as Palmeiras. So these two will meet in the cup final over two legs around the turn of this month, but that feels a long way off and this is far from a dress rehearsal with 4th place and a Copa Libertadores spot to play for. Palm need a win and nothing else to get back into contention for that, three points would see Santos back in pole position. I do not know what happens if Santos finish fourth, if Pameiras would get the "other" Copa place regardless, or would it go to 5th in the league, I tried to find out quickly this morning but ran out of time. If that was the case, then conspiracy theorists would argue that losing today would give them a better (double chance) of making the international competition. I will find out before writing again about these two, for now we can consider it a potential "bonus".

Readless of which, Santos seem irresistable on home soil right now and had a training run out in midweek, whilst Palmeiras had a battle ! Santos to record a seventh straight home win over the visitors.

Santos -0.75 ball 2.20 asian line/Sportmarket.

from Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

[paul8209]

France Ligue2 Creteil - Nimes

It will surprise few regular readers that i expect to see goals in this fixture. We have discussed Creteil and their approach to games so many times in recent seasons and a bit of a blip last year aside, they play as open a style as you could ever wish to see, certainly in Ligue 2 terms.

Last round Creteil won 2-1 and landed the "over" bet and also took the big odds win, if anyone chose to go down that route . Those points got them back up to within four of the promotion spots and they will surely be looking for a maximum return today. Nimes are bottom of the table and cast adrift due to their eight point deduction and draw after draw (at home) is not going to help, we have spoken many time previously about them being far more adventurous than their reputation suggets and they will go toe to toe with any opponent who is willing to play similarly, step forward Creteil ! Nimes have both scored and conceded in their last five starts and two goals in recent outings again Nancy and Metz (road) show that they can put up goals against the better teams in this league. At least one goal for both and I expect each to press hard for a winner.

Créteil : Kerboriou, Merville - Di Bartolomeo, Diedhiou, Hérelle, Ilunga - Augusto, Benaniba, Bourgeois, Dias, Lafon, Lesage, Mollet, Sangaré - Andriatsima, Dabo.

Nîmes : Michel, Gallon - Cordoval, Barrillon, Elie, Harek, Valls, Guihoata, Hermach, Savanier, Lacourt, Maoulida, Koura, Mounié, Tchenkoua, Chamed.

over 2.5 goals 2.11 asian line/Sportmarket.

from Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

[paul8209]

France Coupe de la Ligue Evian - Laval

Evian's last three fixture have been perhaps their three most open games of the season, with both teams scoring in each and all going "over", this hardly seems like the competition or time to go back into their shell. Laval are not exactly known for the open nature of their play, but their last two road games in this competition have produced six goals and they have both scored and conceded in four of their last five Ligue 2 starts, with all producing at least two goals. Only four recent h2h meetings between these two, but an average of 4.25 goals and all went"over". It is normally the "less adventurous" side who decide how these matches are played out and that would be the visitors in this case, Laval have travelled with a bigger squad than usual, which normally means rotation, but they have made the trip with all their experienced, regular starters and look to be treating this very seriously. Hosts have named 20 for today, so, expect quite a few changes, they are without key defensive midfielder Yeltsin Tejeda, last four starts he has missed have averaged 3.75 goals and they are without a clean sheet in seven in his absence.

Evian: Leroy, Durand - Abdallah, Angoula, Betao, Appindangoye, Soares, Centonze, Sorlin, Campanharo, N'Dao, Kamin, Hoggas, Abarouaï, Sanson, Barbosa, N'Gakoutou, Bruno, Keita, Altolaguirre.

Laval: Maxime Hautbois, Lionel Cappone, Kévin Perrot, Erwan Quintin, Djibril Konaté, Fouad Chafik, Adrien Monfray, Malik Couturier, Nordi Mukiele, Alassane N'Diaye, Romain Habran, Hassane Alla, César Zeoula, Anthony Gonçalves, Chris Malonga,Duckens Nazon, Julien Viale, Rachid Alioui.

over 2.25 goals 2.01 asian line/Sportmarket.

from Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

[paul8209]

France Ligue 1: Gazelec Ajaccio-Nice

France Ligue 1: Gazelec Ajaccio-Nice

I spoke ahead of their home game with Nantes early this month about the huge number of goals in Nice matches and at both ends of the pitch .....

"I am not going to waste too long on this, Nice are on fire with 13 goals in their last three starts, including seven on the road to Bastia and St Etienne, those are big numbers in any top league, but especially in France. They are not going to suddenly go into their shell in front of their own supporters and Nantes I feel are a little more offensive minded than they tend to show and might not need too much encouragement to get drawn forward themselves and they will certainly have space to exploit when they do, with Nice without a clean sheet in 14, or in ten home starts. Goals !"

Incredibly, that match was 2-2 at the break, when it was then abandoned , which in Nice of all places, was a little hard to take !

However, that and the international break did not make Nice break stride , if anything it made them even more hungry and in their only start since, they won 4-1 away to highflying Rennes last weekend . That makes four straight wins and with a 17-4 goal difference and remember, this is Ligue 1 ! They will today be once again without their two first choice goalkeepers, which will mean a second outing for 21yo Yoan Cardinale who made his debut last week, but this is not a team who will be looking to defend too much in any case and they have only boarded the plane to Corsica with thoughts of how many goals they will score.

The hosts know they have to start winning here on the island if they are to have any chance of survival, three points might well be enough to take them out of the drop zone and they will be very focused on back to back home games to end this month , but I suspect they need to score twice to get anything from this, they are not going to keep Nice out for 90 minutes and Gazelec can play their part in what seems sure to be another wide open encounter.

over 2.5 goals 2.17 asian line/Sportmarket.

from Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

[paul8209]

France Ligue2 Brest - Valenciennes 23.10

Valenciennes remain without Roudet and Kabore, they do get Ciss and Diarra back, but that is immediately offset by the loss of Edouard Butin and Da Costa and their three goals will be missed amongst a team who have scored just twice in six starts and none at all in almost 400 minutes of football . Confidence is at a very low ebb and Brest is never an easy place to come looking to restore it. Brest will be buoyed by two goals and a cleansheet at Creteil last Friday and whilst that had much to do with their opponents injury woes, they will take heart from that and also that they hit top form at this stage of last season, going 14 games unbeaten in the build up to Christmas, keeping 11 clean sheets. Only change for them from last week is the absence of fringe forward Alexandre Alphonse, which is not an issue. They travel to leaders Dijon next week and will be very focused on the three points today to stay in touch with the top three and take as much pressure as possible off the trip to Burgundy.

Brest: Hartock, Léon - Belaud, Falette, Brillault, Lorenzi, Keïta - Pelé, Sankoh, Jacob, Grougi, Battocchio, Tié Bi - Koubemba, Sea, Joseph-Monrose, Adnane.

Valenciennes: Charruau, Perquis - Abdelhamid, Aloé, Ciss, Nery, Nestor - Baradji, Diarra, Enza-Yamissi, Fulgini, Mbenza, Tameze - Ndao, Nguette, Slidja.

Brest -0.75 ball 2.25 asian line/Sportmarket.

from Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

[paul8209]

England Championship Rotherham - Reading

Neil Redfearn has a big task to try and keep the Millers in the Championship, I saw his debut as boss at the weekend , a 2-1 feat at Griffin Park to the mighty Bees and on this occasion the league table doesn't lie and they are the weakest tean I have seen in the second tier this season and by quite some way. Previous bos Steve Evans has always had a revolving door policy of players at the club and another huge number of summer signings means a lack of cohesion (second fewest competed passes in the division) and no real planning, bringing in 15-16 players every off season is so very hit and miss and whilst it worked in L2 and L1, it didn't last season in the Championship and United were fortunate to survive, Evans said he would do things differently this time round, but like a teenager addicted to Ebay, he could not resist the lure and was busy oiling those revolving doors almost as soon as the 2014-15 campiagn ended !

So a lot of work for Redfearn to do and what he could really do with is some time and the matches are coming too thick and fast for that, he could also do without a lengthy injury list, which has meant he had to dip into the loan market yesterday and bring yet another player into the club and on top of everything else, the Millers have their biggest game of the season in three days time, when huge local rivals Sheffield Wednesday, who one United fan told me on Saturday that "they are the only club we really hate", visit the New York Stadium for a televised fixture. As a born and bred Yorkshireman, Redfearn will know all about that and as a club, United will have one eye on that fixture.

Latest injury for them came to left back Joe Mattock who left the field late on Saturday, he was one of their more impressive defenders and although the Millers have been conceding at the rate of almost two per game, they have given up "just" 1.25 pg in the eight he has started, 3.67 in the three he has sat out. Reading are strong on the flanks, tight defensively (no team has conceded fewer goals) and will almost certainly stay in the automatic promotion places with all three points. Steve Clarke has used the off season well and has got the Royals so much better organised this season and can use his bigger and much less injury hit squad to good advantage in this quick turnaround.

Reading -0.75 ball 2.28 asian line/Sportmarket.

from Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

[paul8209]

Brazil Serie A : Santos - Goias

Goias lost 3-0 at leaders Corinthians and Santos were edged out 1-0 at Gremio, continuing their away day woes.

Not an awful lot to add really. Trips to Corinthians and Santos are tough for anyone, let alone back to back inside three days and should be too much for one of the poorer sides in the league, especially when they will be facing a home side desperate to claim back their hard earned top 4 ranking. Santos' road form leaves a lot to be desired, but they are 12-2-1 on home soil and have, incredibly, scored at least three goals in their last seven home starts and have averaged 2.47 per game in all league home games.The hosts are without a couple of suspended players, including 8 goal teenage striker Gabriel, but they still have massive offensive threat, not least through Serie A's top scorer Ricardo Oliveira (see below) and their absences mean that we get a decent quote today and with huge motivation, I cannot see Goias stalling the Copa Libertadores push from Santos, who have named a squad with only three points in mind..

Santos:Vanderlei , Vladimir, Daniel Guedes, Zeca , Chiquinho, Werley, Leonardo , Paulo Ricardo, Renato, Thiago Maia, Lucas Lima, Marquinhos Gabriel, Leandrinho, Serginho, Ledesma, Vitor Bueno , Léo Cittadini, Ricardo Oliveira, Geuvânio, Neto Berola, Leandro, Nilson, Marquinhos.

Santos -1.25 ball2.28 asian line/Sportmarket.

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