Football betting Daily Picks

[paul8209]

France Ligue2 Paris FC - FC Metz

Paris FC are like a throwback to Ligue 2 of a decade ago, maybe I am being harsh and they are just not good enough, it is "OK" to be bad, but to not give yourself the best possible chance to win, is unforgivable ! They are now ten points from safety, with eight rounds left to play and are going to get what they deserve from this season, I do not advocate violence very often, but if they are happy to sit back for 70 minutes + again this evening on home soil, no supporter should be charged for running onto the pitch and administering a kick up the backside to every member of the coaching staff ! Lybohy is again suspended and missing from the home backline. I feel they will at least attempt to go for it early tonight and 3 of their last 4 have gone comfortably "over".

Metz will surely come all guns blazing for three points, they are currently sixth, two points off promotion pace, but no one is going to get up to Ligue 1 by playing for a draw and 3rd spot is going to go to the wire and will, you have to feel, be claimed by the bravest of the pack. They have scored in 13 of their last 14 away starts (all comps) and conceded two or more in 7/8 on the road, 7/9 have gone "over" and both teams have scored in 10 of 13. I feel they are the more likely winner, but have to suggest the best value lies with ................over 2.5 goals 2.51 asian line/Sportmarket.

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[paul8209]

Champions League Manchester City - Dynamo Kiev

This looks job done for City after their 3-1 win in Kiev, but the hosts are not playing well and that game aside, they have beaten only Aston Villa since the start of last month, with a couple of heavy defeats along the way. Main focus will clearly be the Champions League of course, but they also have to finish top 4 as a minimum and ensure participation in the competition next season and currently in 4th and with West Ham just two points adrift and Manchester United (whom they play in the derby game on Sunday) just another two further back, there is every chance that they will play tonight with one eye on that game.

Kiev were rusty in the first leg, that was to have been expected, they had not played a competitive game in eleven weeks,they have now had four games since the winter break and will be approaching full fitness and ready to show their best.

Dynamo currently lead Shakhtar Donetsk, who are flying in the Europa League, by three points at the top of the Ukrainian domestic league, where Kiev are unbeaten on the road 8-1-0, conceding just three goals. In the CL they won 2-0 at both Porto and Maccabi Tel Aviv and were 1-1 at Stamford Bridge with eight minutes left to play, before conceding a late winner. They did not venture forward much there until after the break, but of course cannot afford to wait that long this evening, they looked dangerous when they did and in Andriy Yarmolenko they have a world class player who has 110 goals and 72 assists for Kiev in less than 300 appearance and from out wide, he has been in the form of his life in the last two seasons and has scored in each of his last three starts.

City are vulnerable, Dynamo MUCH better than they showed in the first leg and the edge in fitness/freshnest has probably swung their way now. City have conceded in their last nine Champions League starts and at the Etihad in their last 14 ! They have conceded two or more in ten of those (!), including to BMG, Plzen, CSKA Moscow (twice) and Ajax and if Dynamo look at that record, they will fancy their chances of scoring a couple of goals, even if ultimately it might not be enough.

Dynamo Kiev to score two or more goals 4.0-4.33 general quote, given that they have to gamble and that City can progress if they concede twice regardless of what they do themselves and that they have allowed two in 71.42% (10/14)of competition home games ( which equates to odds of 1.40), how can that possible be correct ?

Manchester City to win and both teams to score 3.0 general quote

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[paul8209]

MLS: New York City FC - Toronto FC

Last round Toronto won 2-0 in the Big Apple, courtesy of two late goals , including a first of the season from star front man Sebastian Giovinco, he also laid on the second and now has "just" the 23 goals and 16 assists from 34 MLS starts, a scoring contribution every 73.5 minutes ! He came up short in two of three games against NYFC last season, but had an hat-trick and assist in a 4-4 draw here in the other, so you cannot keep a good man down for too long !

The game between Chicago and New York City was exactly what it looked like from the scoreline, a wide open, end to end encounter and even when City went "defensive" at 2-4, it barely changed anything, they looked vulnerable to pace at the back, but to score four on the road, without a goal from David Villa is hugely promising and I doubt new coach Viera will be any less offensive minded in his home debut. They looked to press high, tactics which worked so well for Red Bulls last year, but TFC got an early look at those and stifled them with a disciplined performance last week , that gives them an edge and with NYFC still coming to terms with the shift in tactics, i would be amazed if there were not goals in this for Toronto and the tireless Giovinco.

I can only see goals in this and feel that NYFC will need two to get a result and three+ to win.

Toronto to score "over" 1.5 goals 1.95-2.05 general quote if you can find it, if not, or even if you can .............

over 3.5 goals 2.36 asian line/Sportmarket

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[paul8209]

France Ligue2: Bourg - Nancy

Bourg lost 2-1 last round and are falling closer and closer to the relegation zone and despite a point at Nimes last week (where they really rode their luck at times) they now sit just nine points off the bottom three, have collected just 14 points from 15 starts and have to be giving praise for such a solid start to life in Ligue 2. It is hard to get away from the idea that they have run out of steam (see above) and that they are no longer the surprise package they were early in the campaign. Today we have the second worse defence in L2 against the second best attack and there should certainly be goals in this for Nancy, who are looking to preserve their healthy lead in second place over the chasing pack. One, maybe more of Red Star, Le Havre, Clermont, Lens will come on strong in the next two months, Nancy know that and actually face two of those teams in the next four weeks and also travel to leaders Dijon and points today will surely be easier to come by and would greatly ease pressure ahead of those tough fixtures. I think they will be out all guns blazing for maximum points today and will be buoyed by their first real defensive performance last week in a 2-0 win over Red Star, however, it came at a cost and today they will be without both left back Vincent Muratori and central defender Mikael Chretien Basser, the pair have missed just three starts between them this season and that is very disruptive. Nancy had conceded twice in each of their previous four starts, including at home to Paris Fc and the visitors seem unlikely to win without conceding.

Bourg-en-Bresse : Fabri, Callamand, Alphonse, Faivre, Traore, N'Simba, Nirlo, Dembele, Berthomier, Damour, Ba, Bègue, Boussaha, Ogier, Boujedra, Dimitriou.

Nancy : Ndy Assembe, Samba - Cuffaut, Cétout, Diakhaté, Lenglet, Badila, Aït Bennasser, Guidileye, Pedretti, Iglesias, Lusamba, Puyo, Dalé, Robic, Hadji, Mabella, Busin.

over 2.75 goals 2.39 asian line/Sportmarket

Nancy to win and both teams to score 4.0-4.33 general quote

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[AlexHitchens]

So what's your winning rate on these picks thus far bro? THinking maybe I've stumbled onto a goldmine.... or not at all

best free online pokies

[paul8209]

Champions League: Real Madrid - AS Roma

Real won 2-0 in Rome, just as they did in Schalke at the same stage last year, then making hard work of the home leg, losing 4-3 and looking in real trouble several times through a wild and craxy game . They will not want to put themselves through that again and something similar to the previous two second leg home ties a 3-1 and 4-1 win seems more likely this evening. Real have won their last two La Liga games, scoring ten, but conceding in each, Roma are on a roll since losing the first leg and have won three scoring 12 goals, actually the Real game aside they have won seven (22 goals) in a row and will be confident of finding a goal this evening, you would feel that the trip to Udinese on Sunday would now be given priority, but the heavy defeat of Fiorentina on Friday has given them a little breathing space in terms of top three and they can perhaps afford to give this their best shot, at least early.

Roma are much improved under Luciano Spalletti (see preview of the 5-0 win over Palermo below) and will see this perhaps as a true test of how far they have come, they had chances in the first leg, when they played almost exclusively on the break and it is easy to see them getting on the scoresheet again this evening. Having said that, Real have already lost at home to Barcelona and Atletico and will want to avoid a third, or repeat of what happened against Schalke last season, so again, when the dust has settled it has to be with a home win. 3-1/4-1.

Real Madrid to win and both teams to score 2.50 general quote, best alternative would have to be "over" 3.5 goals 2.17 asian line

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[paul8209]

France Ligue 1 : Lyon - Guingamp

I was very keen on Lyon in this fixture last season , which they won 3-1 and I see a similar outcome this afternoon. Lyon are on a bit of a charge, especially at home where they have won their last three ( Bordeaux, Caen and runaway leaders PSG) scoring nine goals in the process and that is about as inpressive a sequence as you can put together in Ligue 1. Three points today will take them back into third and they will be looking to cement that as soon as possible, with as many as 12 teams still feeling they are in contention for what looks to be one remaining Champions League spot (Marseille in 14th are eight point adrift of Nice who are currently in third, but have two games in hand ). OL are the biggest club amongst the pack and kind of feel that a spot in Europe's premier competition is theirs by right and will want to continue putting on pressure on all the clubs around them. Guingamp have relegation concerns and will battle hard, but they have lost eight on the road already, they have scored seven goals in their last three starts, but have taken only a single point from those , conceding ten and it is fairly obvious where their problems lie. OL are stronger today than for the win over PSG with the return of Christophe Jallet, Samuel Umtiti and Clement Grenier, which gives a chance to freshen up and also highlights the depth the club have now built up (beating PSG missing 5 regulars). Not difficult to see a goal for Guingamp, but once the dust has settled, surely another reasonably comfortable home win, repeat of that 3-1 feels about right.

Lyon -1.25 ball 2.14 asian line/Sportmarket

Lyon to win and both teams to score 3.10-3.30

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[paul8209]

France Ligue2 Evian - Dijon

Dijon look like they are coasting back to Ligue 1, but after a few false alarms in recent campaigns, will not be taking anything for granted just yet. They sit 11 points clear of the team in fourth, but have scored two or more goals in each of their last four starts, including away to Laval and Le Havre, teams who do not give up a lot of goals. They are strong at home , losing just once all season, which was actually to Evian back in October, which will give the hosts hope, but also mean that DFCO will arrive looking for a little revenge too. Despite that home record, I have made no secret of the fact that I believe they are better suited to playing on the road, with Julio Tavares the perfect man to lead the line away from home.

Evian have to deal with the always difficult Monday-Friday turnaround, but will be up for a visit from the league leaders and can play their part in what should be an open encounter. They will have to do so without left back/winger Fabien Centoze who is suspended (Dijon have scored a lot of goals this season from that flank).

Dijon arrive short handed defensively with centre back and captain Cedric Varraut and right back Arnaud Souquet (no clean sheet in six starts without him) missing. Goals !

over 2.25 goals 2.13 asian line/Sportmarket

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[paul8209]

West Ham - Tottenham

Tough week for Spurs, with a Sunday, Wednesday, Saturday lunchtime kick off. They trailed for 50 minutes in the first, which also came on the back of a Thursday Europa League tie and the next two are derby games. United will definitely be up for this, they are not totally out of Champions League contention themselves, in this strangest of seasons and are still in the FA Cup and Slaven Bilic's first season in charge and last at Upton Park, could hardly have gone better . The club have looked as good as anyone on a going day, witness road wins at Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City and they have unearthed a couple of superstars (Dimitri Payet is already heavily tipped for the POTY award), which might help them fill the Olympic Stadium next season. One game which was certainly not a "going day" was the 4-1 loss in the reverse fixture, that could have been 8-4 something like that, United had good chances early, but Spurs once they got ahead were all over the Hammers. Tottenham will go top of the EPL with all three points, with just ten rounds to play and a North London derby game with Arsenal less than 63 hours later, hard to think of any greater incentive and we will surely see both teams really go for this.

United's four home games against other top eight teams have all produced three or more goals with both teams scoring in each and I see this playing out similarly, neither team will lie down after conceding, Spurs have collected FAR more points than any other EPL team (17) from losing positions and the Hammers are third in that table.

over 2.75 goals 2.26 asian line/Sportmarket

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[paul8209]

Norwich - Chelsea

I previewed Chelsea's trip to in form Southampton on Saturday and spoke about their top six ambitions.........

"Two in form teams, the Blues are unbeaten in ten in the EPL, Saints are 5-1-0 in their last six and have not conceded a single goal in that sequence, but they have ridden their luck at times, there are only so many times that Fraser Forster can save them and they will have to manage today without the protection of holding player Victor Wanyama against what is a firing visiting midfield.

Top 4 looks beyond Chelsea after their terrible start, but they want to keep their EPL campaign alive and their stated target is a top six Premier League finish for what would be the 20th consecutive season. Saints are currently in that position, seven points ahead of the West London club, so a win today would be hugely valuable in terms of that particular ambition. Saints have not kept a clean sheet in 11 games against the Blues and have really struggled until recently whenever Wanyama has been absent, the defensive midfield pairing of Jordy Clasie and Oriol Romeu have done well this season when called upon, but the latter moved from Chelsea in August and will be well known by the visitors. I expect the visitors to be very focused on their next two EPL games, here and at Norwich in midweek, ahead of the home game with Stoke next Saturday they might start to think about the return with PSG, but it will be all about the Premier League in the interim and a fully motivated visitor can ask the Saints more questions than they have faced for some time."

The Blues had to battle very hard to come from behind and earn the three points and having done so, it is hard to see them being any less committed to the match at Carrow Road, where City have conceded ten in their last three starts and, as we have discussed several times this season, often urged forward too often by the passionate home crowd and probably therefore, not playing to their strengths, such as they are at EPL level. The Canaries have not won in eight starts, conceding three goals in five of those and failing to register themselves in five, even in the last two matches that they have taken something from at home to West Ham and Southampton, they have needed an awful lot to go their way, red cards, missed chances for the opposition and they will need to ride their luck to stop the Chelsea juggernaut now that it is up and running.

Chelsea -1 ball 2.25 asian line/Sportmarket

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[paul8209]

JLeague FC Tokyo - Omiya Ardija

Omiya Ardija are newly promoted and do not immedately look to have added much by the way of top flight quality and look like a JL2 team in JL1 and we have seen a number of those in recent campaigns. I do not want to immediately write them off, but this is a tough start. FCT have already played two AFC Champions League games having had to qualify, they so they been playing competitively for two weeks and that, at least for now, is a huge advantage in my opinion. They finished fourth last year and the loss of Yoshinori Muto mid season, cost them a lot of goal threat, they were well organised under Massimo Ficcadenti, whom we discussed almost weekly , but he has been replaced( what will we talk about now on Friday afternoon?), paying the price for boring football, with not enough end product, you cannot do both, without paying the price! Returning boss Hiroshi Jofuku will get the benefit of a defensively solid squad and will look to bring a little more flair, he will miss Kosuke Ota who has also left for Europe. They opened with a 9-0 win over Chonburi in their qualifier, which was little more than shooting practice, but good for confidence. FCT lost 2-1 in midweek at Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors, but were quite impressive and were tactically solid, pressing high up the field and allowing a good opponent few real chances, they were also denied an equaliser by the woodwork. Jofuku will be very keen to win on his second home J-League debut

FC Tokyo -0.5 ball 2.13 asian line/Sportmarket

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[paul8209]

Europa League: Bilbao - Marseille

Athletic Bilbao really make all the criteria for going deep and we know they will never want for trying, my notes ahead of the first leg can be read under the "good luck" sign off. They won that 1-0 courtesy of a stunning volley from Aritz Aduriz and will of course progress with a draw, but sitting back is not really in their nature, or playing to their strengths and their hugely passionate supporters will be urging them forward at every opportunity. They will be without suspended midfielder Benat Etxebarria and forward Inaki Williams this evening, but have strength in depth and more than able replacements. Marseille will take comfort from the fact that their road form has been stronger all season, but San Mames is never an easy place to come and play, it is like the cathedral of Basque football and with this match coming on the back of a derby loss to Real Sociedad last Sunday, I suspect we will see a hugely motivated host. Athletic have won next time out at home after their last four losses here (three were to Barce and Real Madrid), they actually include a win over Real and they scored eight in the two most recent (5 v Eibar and 3 v Valencia). They are going to get more space than usual at some stage with the visitors having to look for the win and OM would have no option but to throw caution to the wind, immediately if they fell behind this evening, or late in the game and this will surely get very stretched and play into the hands of the attacked minded and better technically home side, sooner or later.

OM get Benjamin Mendy and Rémy Cabella back, but remain without Lucas Ocampos, Dja Djedje and Lucas Silva (see all five in notes below), they have made the trip with a large squad and I remain to be convinced that they are 100% committed to the Europa League and that we might see some rotation, they play a cup game in six days time (best chance for silverware) and a tough league game at Ajaccio on Sunday, where defeat might well end any remaining top 3 hopes. That will be their eighth February fixture ( inside 26 days) ,French clubs are not really used to that level of competition ( Aug-Dec they played no more than six in any calendar month) and they played more than 30 minutes with ten men on Sunday. Athletic have only played four games so far this month and will surely have an edge in fresher and love for the competition.


Athletic: Iraizoz, Bóveda, Elustondo, Laporte, Eraso, San José, Iturraspe, De Marcos, Iago Herrerín, Susaeta, X.Etxeita, Mikel Rico, Gurpegi, Muniain, Aduriz, Raúl García, Balenziaga, Sabin Merino, I.Lekue.

OM: 16 Yohann Pelé,30 Steve Mandanda,40 Florian Escales,2 Javier Manquillo,3 Nicolas Nkoulou,4 Karim Rekik,6 Rolando,15 Stéphane Sparagna,23 Benjamin Mendy,25 Paolo De Cegile,10 Lassana Diarra,11 Romain Alessandrini,13 Rémy Cabella,17 Bouna Sarr,18 Mauricio Isla,19 Abdelaziz Barrada,20 Alaixys Romao,9 Steven Fletcher,14 GK Nkoudou,22 Michy Batshuayi,24 Florian Thauvin,28 Antoine Rabillard


Athletic Bilbao -1 ball 2.31 asian line/Sportmarket

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[paul8209]

Champions League: Arsenal - Barcelona

I am not going to say too much about this game, most of you will know as much (more ?) than I do about the two clubs and they certainly know each other well enough, with this their eighth Champions League meeting. Both teams have scored in the previous seven and I definitely expect that to again be the case this evening, the Gunners have won one, two draws and four Barcelona wins and if I had to pick, I would stick with those trends and say that BTS and the visitors to win , which is priced at circa 3.10-3.25 was the best "non asian" bet on offer. Are Messi, Sanchez and Neymar the best offensive trio of all time ? Probably, I can't think of a better one in my lifetime and the truth is that the Gunners will probably need to score twice this evening to give themselves any real chance of progressing over the two legs. We have spoken a lot over the last 12 months about the value of an away goal and all the big, experienced European teams know this and Barce who have made 7 of the last 8 CL semis are 15-2-2 in the copetition in the last two seasons , scoring at least once in each game. Arsenal have scored in their last 13, but have lost in the Round of 16 for five yeras running and in their home leg in the last three they have lost each by two goals , including 3-1 losses to Monaco and Bayren Munich and that correct score (1-3 at odds of 13.0-14.0 ) certainly makes some appeal ( I am already waiting for the email from Mr "But how will I know what to bet" !). Barce have scored 30 in their last ten starts , but have also conceded in eight of those, last h2h meetings have averaged 4.25 goals and my suggested "official" bet would have been a winner four times and seen stakes returned twice.

over 3 goals 2.13 asian line/Sportmarket

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[paul8209]

England League 1: Bradford - Rochdale

I see a lot of similarities between this Bradford city team and the one which we were strongly with through their 2012-13 League 2 promotion year, they came with a big run there to win the playoffs and despite getting distracted with cup runs and a poor playing surface in subsequent campaigns, they have improved in each, finishing 11th and 7th , they are a big club and have the level of support to once more become an established Championship side and look to be coming on strong in the second half of the campaign and timing their run well. They have posted back to back wins over direct playoff rivals in Peterborough United and Southend United by a combined 6-0 and meet a Rochdale side who are very hit and miss, recent wins over league leaders Burton Albion and third placed Walsall, were sandwiched between losses to Barnsley and Chesterfield who were both in the drop zone and where they conceded nine goals, just about sums them up ! Visiting boss Keith Hill is a head caoch I have a lot of time for and he will never compromise his principles and his teams are always pleasing on the eye and will look to get forward at every opportunity, witness the two points and two goal lead thrown away at home to Crewe Alexandra last week. Dale are struggling defensively and I was quite shocked to read some of the comments on their forum, which were very much of the "I think we have enough about us to stay up " variety, which is a little telling as they are eight points clear of the drop zone with at game in hand on most teams below them.

The visitors have won only three times on the road all season and have been dealing with lengthy injury problems and lacking a real central defensive pairing and that looks likely to cost them dear today, City striker James Hanson is listed as 1.93m, but looks much taller and is a huge aerial threat and can punish that defensive weakness, he has returned to form with four goals in his last four starts and will be up for this today. He caused Dale a lot of problems last year with a goal and assist agaisnt them and will have been sorry to have started on the bench in the reverse fixture this season , which City won 3-1, creating a lot of chances and with two goals coming from crosses into the box.City are tight defensively and have only conceded 11 at home this season, but goals at the other end have been hard to come by until recently and if they have largely solved those issues, they are going to be tough to kep out of the top six. Home win.

Bradford City -0.5 ball 2.09 asian line/Sportmarket

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Europa League Valencia - Rapid Wien

We know that Rapid are very offensive minded and they will arrive with an attacking mindset and looking to put further pressure on struggling Valencia and boss Gary Neville. The home supporters are very restless and it will not take much for them to "turn", especially as this is now, "season on the line time" for Los Che, who have nothing else left to play for. They come into this game missing a couple of key defenders, but no excuses are going to be accepted or even listened to by fans who have been long suffering and a really hard earned win over a poor Espanyol team, the first La Liga three points in three months, has done little to convince anyone that a corner has been turned. Rapid took 15 points from a Europa League group containing Villarreal and were close to making it to the CL ( see below), they are going toe to toe with Salzburg for the domestic title and arrive on the back of a 3-0 road win at highflying rivals Austria Vienna at the weekend and could hardly be in more confident mood, which is in stark contrast to their hosts. Very hard not to see goals in this for Rapid and Valencia look stronger on the front foot than defensively and this is huge for them, so it has to be ................


over 2.75 goals 2.12 asian line/Sportmarket...best alternative ......3.5 goals 2.90-3.10 general quote

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