Champions League: Barcelona- Bayern Munich
Something always seems to come between a Barcelona - Real Madrid final, but this does look the season it could finally happen . The Catalan giants are playing the best football we have seen them for at least three years and probably longer and Messi, Suarez and Naymar appear unstoppable upfront and it is close to impossible to keep all three quiet for 90 minutes, especially in the big games, where they are all looking to shine and compete, not just with opponents, but each other ( in a good way) and they could not come into this game in better form, with the trio having an incredible 25 goals between them in their last seven starts !
We could argue that Bayern coach Pep Guardiola knows the hosts as well as anyone, but Suarez and Neymar joined after he left and good luck with having a game plan for Messi and the threat doesn't really end with those three anyway ! It is not like Bayern are at their best, far from it, the big second leg win over Porto papered over a few cracks, but the visitors fell apart there and that cannot happen to Barce, not this version anyway. Bayern looked suspect in Portugal and I have spoken previously about the lack of real domestic competition not doing them any favours when it came to the major European ties. They have also struggled with injuries all season and today, Arjen Robben, Franck Ribery, Holger Badstuber, David Alaba and Sebastian Rode are all missing and Robert Lewandowski collected what appeared to be a serious facial injury and concussion last week and if he is available, with have to play with a protective mask, this alone smacks of desperation and if there were options, I doubt that Guardiola would even have allowed him to travel. In his absence at the weekend,soon to be 37yo Claudio Pizarro played up front on his own in a 2-0 road defeat to Leverkusen, after seeing only 122 minutes of action previously since late September, which highlights how few altenatives they have offensively.
There is also the small matter of revenge, if you think the 7-0 aggregate loss to Bayern at this stage of the competion two year ago have been forgotten by anyone in Barcelona, think again and I suspect they might be viewing this as payback and with Bayern perhaps having a few more options for the return, I doubt they will pass up the opportunity to try and put this tie to bed this evening.
Barcelona -1 ball 2.36 asian line/Sportmarket.
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AFC Champions League: Guangzhou Evergrande Taobao -Western Sydney Warriors
The last two winners of this competition meet in Guangzhou , renewing a rivalry from last year when Warriors knocked out Evergrande at the quarter final stage en route to wiining the competition. They were two very tight games, with WSW edging home by the minimum margin in the first leg and then going through on away goals on the back of a 2-1 loss in China. It is now Warriors who are defending the title and that was always going to be a huge ask for them this season, not just to do well in this, but also to compete domestically after a hugely draining 2014. I have reproduced notes from last year's first meeting below to provide some background information, we did not preview the group game in Australia in March where a GET team, perhaps also out for a little revenge, won 3-2, courtesy of a Ricardo Goulart hat trick. However, the key points today are that the hosts are already group winners and have nothing to play for but pride and possibly a little more revenge, they play the two Shanghai teams in the next week, including Dongya who currently lead GET by one point at the top of the table and are likely to at least play with those games in mind, giving that this is effectively meaningless.
We also know that it is incredibly dangerous and foolhardy to ever write WSW off, they love to surprise and are absolutely certain to give their all and leave nothing on the pitch today. There task is very difficult, they need to win and hope that the FC Seoul- Kashima Antlers game ends in a draw, that is set to be very close with the winner progressing, or a draw being enough for the Korean team if WSM do not win, so it is easy to see a cat and mouse encounter at least through 45 minutes in Kashima, which should give Warriors encouragement. They are missing several players today including suspended trio of striker Kerem Bulut, defender Yusuke Tanaka and midfielder Kearyn Baccus, but that doesn't really change too much, they will have to gamble and look for goals, as whatever side the hosts put out, they are very difficult to keep out for 90 minutes on home soild, but they are more vulnerable in recent times and have already conceded three at home to Antlers in the group stage ( 4-3) and two to WSW in the reverse leg and the visitors got the away they required here last season, so don't rule out them at least making a decent stab at this and even if they lose heavily, 4-2 or something similar is possible and I see value, if you can find it, in Western Sydney Warriors to score over 1.5 goals ( two or more) at circa 3.50 ( I unit), far easier to back is "over" 3 goals which is a general 2.29 with Sportmarket Pro/ Pinnacle
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Nottingham Forest- Cardiff City
Leeds United- Rotherham United
Bolton Wanderers- Birmingham City
Blackpool- Huddersfield
I obviously expect goals in each and will personally be betting strongly, what you do is, as ever, entirely up to you, my reasons are as already outlined , these teams are already mentally lying on a beach somewhere, some players will be looking to impress and maybe earn a move elsewhere and as I said for the Empoli game on Thursday, this is the one day of the year when it will be acceptable to think of yourself and not the team as a whole. Clubs also look to entertain with nothing on the line and season tickets to sell and most want to send fans away with a positive mental memory for the summer, in other words, these are friendly games in all but name.
There is no need for me to add too much more, but Blackpool have already conceded close to 100 goals, we discussed and took goals in Huddersfield's match last weekend ...."This is pretty much a "friendly" with very little at stake, between two teams happier on the front foot and with a history of goals in h2h meetings, with the last two matches at the Galpharm producing ten and I see this very much following suit, with both teams already in holiday mood. Town played out a 4-4 draw here with Derby County last weekend and 61% of their games this season have gone "over" 2.5 goals with 36% producing four or more. Rovers have scored two or more goals in six of their last eight and have also conceded three goals twice in that sequence. Very hard to see either suddenly going into their shell and an early breakthrough could see any number of goals this afternoon at a time of year when games in this league with nothing on the line, can get a little "crazy". There were four goals there, it should have been more."
The Leeds -Rotherham game is a Yorkshire derby, but the Millers only earned survival on Tuesday, I know they were celebrating that and after a very tough few months under enormous pressure, it would only be natural to perhaps let things slide, hosts have conceded 14 in their last six. Forest are a very offensive minded team and have conceded two or more in 6 of their last 7. Nine of the last 10 h2h meetings between Bolton and City have gone "over" and this all feels pretty good.
Nottingham Forest- Cardiff City over 2.75 goals 2.01 asian line/Sportmarket.
Leeds United- Rotherham United over 2.75 goals 2.13-2.20 asian line/Sportmarket Pro.
Bolton Wanderers- Birmingham City over 2.75 goals 2.11 asian line/Sportmarket.
Blackpool- Huddersfield over 2.75 goals 2.02 asian line/Sportmarket.
I am also going to suggest two muliple bets....
all four to go "over" 2.5 goals @ circa 10.0.
and all four to go over 3.5 goals. I will suggest any 3/4 and all 4, that's five bets
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Serie A : Fiorentina- Cagliari
Of the matches we have lost on over the last week, most frustrating for me, has to be the Fiorentina- Dynamo Kyiv "over" on Thursday, it is hard to describe how many clear cut opportunities La Viola created early, but it is no exaggeration to say they could/should have been at least four up inside the first 20-25 minutes. If they come out with the same intensity today, they will swamp Cagliari and whilst they have ,at best. only 4th place to play for today and are bound to be a little tired, I do not think it will be so easy to just switch the gas off and neither will they want to, with their Europa League semi final on the near horizon and a midweek game with leaders Juventus, their most bitter rival and they will want to keep the momentum up ahead of both.
Cagliari are struggling, nine points from safety they changed coach again this week with Gianluca Festa becoming the fourth (?) they have had this season, they have been conceding far too freely, almost at the rate of two per game and have lost their last four all by two or more goals. Their cause today is hardly helped by the loss of central defender Luca Rossettini, they have not won in 13 starts without him, conceding an average of 2.08 goals per game. Fiorentina won the reverse fixture 4-0 and a repeat might well be on the cards, but two will do !
1.5 units Fiorentina -1.5 goals 2.33 asian line/Sportmarket.
Fiorentina: Alonso, Aquilani, Badelj, Basanta, Borja, Diamanti, Fernandez M., Gilardino, Gomez, Gonzalo, Ilicic, Joaquin, Kurtic, Lazzari, Neto, Pasqual, Pizarro, Rosati, Rosi, Salah, Savic, Tatarusanu, Tomovic, Vargas.
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France Ligue2 Chateauroux- Auxerre
There are some background notes on Auxerre in the Tours preview above, they must have been a little crestfallen after dropping all three points there, a win would have taken then to within two of the automatic promotion spots and with all the momentum they could wish for behind them. However, they have had a full week to take a half step back, reflect on what they have achieved and also that the four clubs immediately above them in the table all dropped points last week and that making up five points, with 18 to play for is still do-able and they have three of their next four at home after today and the very least they can do is put some pressure on the teams who sit in 3rd-6th and see how far that takes them. I do not doubt for one minute that they will be all guns blazing for the win this evening, against a woeful opponent, who are effectively 12 points from safety and already preparing for third tier football, as they largely have been for 11 months, after earning a late, off the pitch reprieve from relegation last season. Auxerre have lost only twice on the road all season, Chateauroux have already lost seven times at home, they have lost their last six starts against top half teams without scoring ( 16-0) including their last home match, a 2-0 defeat to GFCO Ajaccio, where we were firmly on the visitor and ahead of which I wrote ......
"There are brief notes on Chateauroux ahead of their trip to Tours last weekend at the foot of this email (see April 10 newsletter), they lost that 1-0 and it could/should have been far worse , with the woodwork saving them three times. They are effectively ten points from safety, with games fast running out and booked for third tier football next season . Today, they do get central defender Cedric Hountondji (see below) back in the line up, but are even shorter of options, with veratile and most experienced defender Laurent Bonnart injured ( conceded 9 goals in the last 323 minutes he has sat out) along with suspended defensive midfielder Emeric Dudouit. With a host of other injuries, Chat have named just four defenders, three of who are aged 21 or younger, one of the few bright lights on a very dismal season has been teenage offensive midfielder Hamza Sakhi who is also sidelined, hosts have lost four of the six starts he has missed, conceding 14 goals. The home side have underperformed badly against top 7 teams, losing their last four by a combined 13-0 and will have to open up and gamble today with a young and vulnerable backline."
The hosts do have Houtondji and Bobbart ( see above) back today , but Dudoit and Sakhi (again, see above) are still absent along with a handful of others and we will again see a lot of young inexperienced players today, who are going to be a far happier and more comfortable at the lower level next season, where they might even thrive. A loss today will probably mean that relegation will be confirmed on the road next week, rather than on home soil the week after and at lest subconsciously, they might prefer that.
Auxerre have a couple of issues, Sammaritano and Viale , had some family and gastric problems respectively, but have been named in the squad and are expected to join up with them later today and I prefer to take that as an indication of how seriously the visitors are taking this, that they are doing everything to get the pair on the pitch. Sébastien Puygrenier is suspended and there is nothing Auxerre can do about that (!), the central defender has , incredibly, played every single minute of all L2 and Coupe de France games this season and whilst youngster Sonhy Sefil has played in all three league cup ties, he only has 168 minutes of league action to his name and we do not really know how the absence of Puygrenier, who is very much leader of the backline will affect the team. Not enough to lose, but they might be a little more vulnerable than usual and we really should see both teams on the scoresheet, with Chat having no reason to sit back. I think that it is time for them to adopt the approach that if we cannot win, let's at least look to entertain.
1.5 units Auxerre -0.5 ball 2.08 asian line/Sportmarket.
1.25 unit "over" 2.5 goals 2.23 asian line/Sportmarket.
Châteauroux : Bonnefoi, Souchaud - Hountondji, Bain, Nestor, Obiang, Bonnart - Roudet, Plessis, Ca, Kamara, Zola, Koffi - Thil, Makengo, Nnomo.
Auxerre : Lembet, Léon - Aguilar, Castelletto, Djellabi, Fontaine, Sefil - Ait Ben Idir, Bouby, Kilic, Mulumba, Vincent - Berthier, Diarra, Fumu-Tamuzo, Nabab, Sammaritano, Viale.
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Europa League Dnepr - Club Brugge
In terms of league/playoff action in the interim, Club Brugge have greatly increased their chances of qualifying for the CL domestically and will want to hold on to first place in the Championship Playoffs which will ensure they go straight into the group stage next season, to that end, they face their closest challenger Gent, on the road on Sunday and that is bound to be a distraction for their long trip East to Kiev to meet Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk.
We have spoken previously about the huge motivation that the Eastern European teams have for this competion and the fitness advantage they hold once past the first knockout stage round , when the benefit of a lengthy winter break starts to kick in and all that will go double with the CL incentive factored in. Dnipro have replaced Metalist as the third big power in Ukranian football and are looking to make inroads into Shakhtar and Dynamo , they are very tight defensively and have not conceded in seven home starts in 2015, or at all in 437 minutes and only twice in 11 home and away starts, keeping a cleansheet in the first leg and in defeating both Ajax and Olympiakos here in Kiev, where they are forced to play home Europa League ties. The hosts have collected a bit of a reputation for the physical side of their game this season, having collected ten yellow cards more than any other team in the competition, but it was their football which caught the eye in the first leg and they were unfortunate not to have come away with a win, after dominated long periods and running Brugge a little ragged through the closing stages. Squad wise, the hosts feel they are in their best shape of the season, having had a lot of injuries to deal with previously and they are now looking to kick on both here and domestically.
CB are a little short handed defensively and have been for some time, when they have opted to rotate from their best available four at the back, it has not worked out well and they can ill afford any injuries and they have a tough choice between today and Sunday. I take Dnipro to edge this, but it is not in their nature to go gung ho from the start and I would like to hold out for a better quote, they have scored four goals in winning their last three "home " EL games without conceding and all came between the 31st-67th minute, three after the break. Brugge have not conceded an away goal in five EL first half starts, so for me, 1.25 units Dnipro -0.5 ball as soon as the asian quote hits 2.25, as long as they are not already leading and we are playing 11 v 11.
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Irish Premier League Cork City - Longford
I was close to taking Cork City giving up the big handicap against Longford Town who might not be favoured by the quick turnaround, they have tired quite badly in their last two starts after the break and have lost all three road games (league and cup) against the better (top 4) teams, the last two by two goals and the newly promoted club are playing their 5th match of April today and still coming to terms with this level of competition. The hosts were runner up to Dundalk last season , the pair clear of the pack and they are already 1 and 2 again, City host the leaders this coming Friday and will want maximum points ahead of that game, they are 3-0-0 at home this season with a 10-0 goal difference and are 6-0 in those games through the first half, so, strong starters against a team who might tire after the break . The only problem was that the visitors have refused to give out any team news and the hosts have a couple of important players who picked up knocks on Friday and who will be subject to last minute decisions. Therefore, I cannot put this up as a red type selection (official bet), but if you really must have an interest, I would suggest 1.25 units Cork City -1.25 ball 2.08 asian line/Sportmarket.
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Nagoya Grampus-Shimizu S-Pulse
I spoke about the offensive potential of Nagoya on opening day ......"Gamba Osaka were easily the best J-League team last season and completed the domestic treble despite being in the relegation zone after 14 rounds. Knowing that, it will not surprise you to know that they, with 39 points, were the best team over the second half of the campaign , followed by Kashiwa Reysol with 36 and Kashima Antlers with 33, they were the only three teams to break the 30 point barrier, although special mention goes to Nagoya Grampus with 29, which was far and away the best of the teams who finished in the bottom half of the table and I see them as a big potential improver.
Akira Nishino is in his second year in charge there and his ideas were clearly getting across to the players and having an influence in the second half of last season, he was wildly successful at Gamba Osaka for a decade, winning numerous trophies and two coach of the year awards. He took a while to start winning things at Gamba and Nagoya are clearly prepared to give him time and to back his judgement, the signings of Kengo Kawamata from Albirex Niigata and Leandro Domingues from Kashiwa Reysol last summer worked out well, with Kensuke Nagai thriving alongside them with 9 goals and three assists over the last 17 games and the club averaging almost two goals per game. They have now added veteran Slovenian striker Milivoje Novakovic from Shimizu S-Pulse, who's record of scoring 16 goals and contributing 4 assists in 38 league and cup appearances for a team battling relegation was awesome, as was the fact he was available for every single game and only missed 23 minutes of league action, at pushing 35 years of age. Really see a big season for them if they can all gel and hit the ground running. They open against one the promoted teams and you are never quite sure what you will get with them, but I would suggest that given up the bigger handicap on Nagoya, who were champions in 2010 and runners up in 2011, might be the way to go."
They scored three that day and have actually averaged 2.0 per game across eight competitive matches, scoring three in half of them. SSP have not kept a clean sheet in six and have conceded at least twice in five of those, they did manage to score twice against Gamba Osaka last week, but to be honest, they owed more to the opposition goalkeeper who made two howlers, than any real offensive prowess in that game. The second goal was reported as thus ....."Then, in the 63rd minute Higashiguchi took a cross comfortably and all seemed well. As the defence cleared out and the attacking team returned to their positions the Gamba keeper dropped the ball to the floor, ready to punt it out. He hadn't checked behind though. where Genki Omae was lurking. The diminutive S-Pulse forward pounced on the free ball and tucked it into the net gratefully. 2-2, leaving Higashiguchi red-faced ! " That was not the first error(s) that Higashiguchi has made recently btw and his form has put me off backing Gamba this round.
Anyway , I have not seen an awful lot of them this season, but SSP feel they have played a little better than recent results suggest, however, it seems hard to see how they are going to keep Nagoya out for long and this could easily and quickly develop into a shootout, which is what this "local" game ( SSP are calling this their derby fixture again this season, with the continued absence of Jubilo Iwata from the top flight) usually develops into, with the last seven h2h meetings going "over" at an average of 4.43 goals per game, the visitors have scored at least twice in 6 of 10 visits. Nagoya have score four first half goals in their last two home starts and SSP have conceded at least twice in the second half in their last three away games, so the goals will surely come sooner or later for Grampus.
1.25 Nagoya Grampus -0.75 ball 2.17 asian line/Sportmarket.
1.25 units "over" 3 goals 2.21 asian line/Sportmarket Pro......alternative is the more standard 2.75 goal line at circa 1.90.
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The 29 Spieltag of the Bundesliga will start today.
One of my picks:
Borussia to beat Hoffenheim @ 1.85Leave a comment:
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Champions league matches 14th and 15th april.
My pick:
Atletico to beat Real @ 2.8
and a small one on:
Porto to beat Bayern Munich @ 4.7
I think the odds is too high. Bayern is weakened. I do see a chance for Porto.Leave a comment:
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The 28 Spieltag of the Bundesliga will start today.
My pick:
Hannover 96 to beat Hertha BSC @ 2.05Leave a comment:
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England League 2 : Bury- Morecambe
We spoke about Morecambe last month where I touched upon how desperate they were to add to their squad, but funds were too tight to do so at one of the poorest supported teams in the Football League. They have overachieved this season and last for that matter in terms of resources and are secure in midtable with the magic (safe number) of 51 points. They have not won in five, losing heavily to the only top seven team they have faced in that sequence and they have only averaged a shade over 1 point per game, over their last 20 fixtures. Last year it was a similar story, 35 points from the first half of the campaign, just 19 from the second 23 games, they have to put too big a strain on too few players and it usually comes back to haunt them.
Bury are at the other end of the spectrum nowadays and are well funded, they were amongst the pre season favourites and started well and were top three at the end of October. They lost their way for a time, collecting only 8 points from a possible 27 and were ten adrift of an automatic spot in mid January, but they have gone 10-2-2 since and chipped away at that gap and now sit four points behind Wycombe Wanderers with a game in hand and a lot of momentum. They have won their last four ( three on the road) and appear very focused and confident right now. Visiting central defender Mark Hughes looks set to miss out after leaving the pitch with an injury on Friday, he is the type who would only do so if he was really in trouble and would be sorely missed, he has sat out just eight league and FA cup ties in the last two seasons, through which Morecambe are 1-1-6 and have failed to score in six, those stats are even worse actually, as seven of those fixtures came in the first half of the respective campaigns, when Morecambe were at their best.
1.5 units Bury -1 ball 2.23 asian line/Sportmarket.
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Japan JLeague
Kashima Antlers- Sagan Tosu
These two met on the final day of last season, which was less than four months ago, ahead of which I wrote ......
Reysol can steal 4th by bettering Sagan's result, or if both win, by scoring one more goal. These scenarios are the real interest in this round of games.
We have spoken a lot about how Sagan approach games ... Ahead of their home game with Urawa last week I wrote ......Expect this to be cagey through the early exchanges.Sagan have drawn 20 of 32 first halves, but only two of those have ended all square (10 wins and 8 defeats).That was level at the break and did actually end 1-1, but Sagan were reduced to ten men and fell behind and to score a late equaliser with ten men, against a team who would have kept the title destiny in their own hands with the win, was a terrific result and all credit has to go to them for plugging away for 95 minutes . Antlers did us a big favour last weekend with that win at Cerezo, but this looks set to be far tougher, despite Sagan being without two suspended players, I feel that the visitors will look to keep this tight as long as possible, definitely until half time, which is their modus operandi in any case and hope that the results outlined above come to pass and that Antlers motivation will evaporate. I quite like Sagan +0.5 ball as a draw could be enough, but would prefer taking big odds for the away win "in play", if Gamba are ahead and doubly so if Reysol also lead. They are without a couple of players, but to my miind, that is more than factored into the odds.
That played out well for us with Sagan winning 1-0, it was not enough for them to claim 4th spot and one of the Champions League places, as Reysol won by the desired two goals, but they did finish level on points with both them and third placed Antlers and perhaps missing out on the international fixtures is a blessing in disguise. Playing in the international club game has certainly not done Kashima any favours so far, they have lost all three Champions League fixtures, conceding eight goals in the process and have just a single point from three J-League starts, shiping three goals at Shimizu who narrowly missed relegation ( by one point) last season and who have not scored in their other two fixtures this time round and also losing at home to a newly promoted team. They had a very young team last season and in their last outing, six were aged 22 or younger and this is the always difficult big second season for many and they are no longer the surprise package they were at the start of the last campaign, key striker Davi who scored and assisted for 18 goals in 2014 has a long term injury and in his absence, Antlers have lost 10 of 18 starts.
Sagan have started well, posting two wins including one over Gamba Osaka, where they went toe to toe early with the treble winners, however, once they took the lead, arguably a little against the run of play they reverted more to type and according to Gamba, "parked the bus", but this is a team with a little something about them and against whom it is absolutely vital to score first. They won 10 times on the road last season and are ideally suited to playing on the break and with Antlers leaking goals, it is easy to see the visitors scoring and one, given their defensive prowess, might well again be enough.
1.5 units Sagan Tosu +0.25 ball 2.28 asian line/Sportmarket.
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International Friendly: France-Denmark
France started strongly against Brazil in midweek, but got worse the longer the game went on, with a poor defensive performance and a lot of errors from the backline, setting the tempo for the last hour of the game. They get the chance to immediately get back to winning ways and are probably grateful for that and perhaps for the chage of envioroment, with the match being played away from Paris and in St Etienne. They will not have to face quite the same offensive threat today, but I suspect the Danes will have seen enough to feel that there is at least a goal in this for them and possibly more, they arrive on the back of a 3-2 defeat of the USA in midweek and were angered by the facilities, or rather lack of them offered by the French FA and the hosts might meet a more motivated opponent that the one which actually boarded the plane in Aarhus. They are still without Daniel Agger in central defence and they are without a clean sheet in the eight starts he has missed over the last two years, conceding two or more in four and in friendly games they have given up an average of 2.0 per game in his absence and all those starts were versus teams with less offensive threat that the French. The hosts will probably rotate quite a bit and there will surely be some very hungry replacements who will see this as a good time and perfect opportunity to impress. Alexandre Lacazette and Olivier Giroud with 36 league goals between them this season will be especially keen to show that they are more than back ups and this is a match which promises entertainment and a few goals. 1.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.16 asian line/Sportmarket.
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Exhibition games today
My picks:
Germany - Australia over 3.5 @ 2.1
Ghana to beat Namibia @ 1.8
Denmark to beat USA @ 2.05Leave a comment:
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