League 1: Oldham Athletic- Rochdale
This is a local derby and will be keenly fought, neither has given up on a top six finish and Dale will actually move into 6th with all three points, the task is much harder for the hosts who have had a lot of off and on the pitch issues to deal with, which we outlined in a recent preview, which is reproduced at the foot of this email. They lost that 3-1 and they have lost their last three starts at Boundary Park (the coldest ground in England.....believe me !) conceding ten goals in the process. However, I have just watched extended highlights of their 1-0 win at lowly Crewe Alexandra at the weekend and they were much improved there, but we saw something similar (at Port Vale....see below) inbetween the first two of those heavy defeats and it is perhaps a formline not to be trusted. Having said that, I really liked the way the whole squad celebrated the goal with the interim management team and the spirit appears healthy within the Latics.
However, I have spotted a few things, firstly that the host's home games have produced a League 1 high 34 goals before the break ( 1.89 average) and 21 after it, next highest in the division is 28. This is mirrored by Dale who have conceded 62% of away goal in the first half, with matches averaging 1.67 on the road before the break, which is also a L1 high number. Even factoring in that this is a derby game, that makes the "over" 1 goal FH quote of 2.02 asian line/Sportmarket look very appealing and if you can find it, or close, I would suggest 1.5 units. An alternative would be over 1.5 goals and there is quite a bit of 2.90-3.10 around for that.
We have spoken a couple of times about Rochdale's second half form on the road, most recently ahead of their trip to Notts County last midweek ....These two have been in freefall, but maybe now they are facing each other, they might revert to type. County have a goal difference of +3 at home before the break , a woeful -10 in the second half, Dale are -2 on the road in the opening 45 mins, +10 after the break. They trailed 1-0 there, went in 1-1 at the break and won 2-1, something similar could well be on the cards this evening. If Dale are level at half time, we could take 1.25 units at the first asian line quoted above 2.0, we could up that to 1.5 units if they were trailing (losing), I do not want to bet if they are already leading and as usual, we have to be playing 11 v 11 (no red cards).
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Newcastle United- Arsenal
Having watched the defensive car crash which was the Everton backline last night, it is hard to believe that United failed to score against them last Sunday and they are clearly a team very low on confidence and the Magpies have now lost their last seven starts, by an aggregate 22-2 goal difference against teams who finished top 7 last season, including a 4-1 defeat at the Emirates against the Gunners. Arsenal won 2-0 at Monaco in midweek which was a goal shy of the three needed to advance, but they did little wrong, dominated the game and as I said the following morning, must still be wondering how they went out to a vastly inferior team. I suspect that will further motivate them for the rest of this season, they can still finish second in the EPL, win the FA Cup and no English team went further in Europe. They have played as well as anyone over the last three months, scoring two or more goals in 18 of 21 starts and in 10 of 12 on the road and they should again have too much firepower for the hosts. 1.5 units Arsenal -1 ball 1.97 asian line/Sportmarket.
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My picks for the champions league:
Leverkusen to qualify for next round @1,6
Arsenal to beat Monaco @ 2,25Leave a comment:
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Conference National: Kidderminster Harriers- Eastleigh
Hosts are suffering financially, players and staff have had salary payments delayed several times this season and all refused to speak to the media recently as a protest. They have now been paid up to date and a wealthy husband and wife who support the club have agreed to bankroll salaries until the end of the season, which at least provides employees with a little stability, but this is a club which is going to have to go backwards , before it can progress. Costs are being cut in every area possible and manager Gary Whild, or whomever is in charge next season, will be operating with a greatly reduced budget probably less than a third of what Eastleigh had last season in the Conference South, the level below National. As you can imagine, the mood at the club is a little subdued and this has manifested itself with their on the pitch performances. Hanging around the playoff fringes (as usual) just before Christmas, Kiddy are 2-3-6 since Boxing Day and the goals have dried up, failing to score in 5 of six (0-3-3) and managing just two goals in nine outings.
The visitors are very well bank rolled by Stewart Donald who had a five year plan to get Eastleigh and the ground up to league standard and many millions later, they would be a year + ahead of schedule were it to be achieved this season.We picked up on what was going on with the Spitfires very early and notes from the last couple of years can be read in the preview of one of their early season games at the foot of this email. I would suggest that you (at least) read the last 2-3 paragraphs of that to get some background information. This could well be the second team we have followed from the sitxth tier into the FL, Fleetwood Town were the first and they are now pushing for a League 1 promotion spot and the Spitfires could do something similar. When trying to pick up on these big potential improvers, I feel the key is looking for owners who provide at least equal funding for off the pitch activities, ground,pitch, training facilities etc, long term projects, then at least you know they are not just looking for a quick fix, an instant return and that they are probably in it for the long haul.
The visitors have been hanging around just outside the top 5 ( only one auto and four playoff spots) for most of the campaign, but fell behind due to a number of postponed fixtures, however, they have run into some real form, winning their last three scoring seven goals , beating 4th placed Macclesfield Town 4-0 infront of the television cameras and winning 2-1 at leaders Bristol Rovers, who were previously 13-4-1 at home, last weekend. That leaves then 6th, outside the post season spots by 5 points and only 13 adrift of Roevrs in first and with 2-3 games in hand over all the clubs above them in the table. They have momentum and the winning mentality from taking the South title last season and there is no knowing how far they could go now with 11 matches still to play. I would suggest that a top 5 spot is very possible/likely (7.0 for promotion currently looks tempting) and we can keep an eye on them on and off over the final two months of the season. They have five forward players , James Constable, Jack Midson, Craig McAllister (the trio are inter changeable up front), Jai Reason and Ben Strevens who are closing in on 50 goals between them and with huge Football League experience, Reason has just earned the Conference POTM award for February. These are options/alternatives other teams do not have and the possibility to continually freshen things up, will be key when others clubs/players are running on empty. 1.25 units Eastleigh level ball 2.15 asian line/Sportmarket Pro ( Pinnacle). there is up to 2.375 for the same market (draw no bet) with european style bookmakers and a general 2.90 - 3.25 for the straight away win, which also appeals. The standard asian quote is +0.25 1.80 which is ok too, but odds are below what I ever personally play, but that is just my own preference, you might see things differently.
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Brazil, Copa do Nordeste - Group E
Bahia VS Globo FC
finished with 1-0Leave a comment:
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today's match
Brazil, Copa do Nordeste - Group E
Bahia VS Globo FC at 10:40pmLeave a comment:
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Liverpool- Burnley
Liverpool are in great form and will be really buoyed by the very deserved win over Manchester City on Sunday, although it could have been a different story if City had taken advantage of the couple of really good chances they created before the break, including hitting the woodwork and the Reds will give you opportunities if you are prepared to attack them and we know that the Clarets will. Burnley have scored in six of their last seven away starts, including at Old Trafford , Stamford Bridge, White Hart Lane twice (2 in the Cup), the Etihad (2) and St James' Park (3). They are some of the biggest venues in the EPL and Burnley are no shrinking violet on the road, where they seem happier with teams coming on to them. The hosts will be all guns blazing for the win and to keep the pressure up for one of the two Champions League spots . They have had a gruelling schedule and this will be their 17th start of 2015, which included two periods of extra time, plus away trips to Turkey and Southampton and a match agaisnt the champions in the last ten days. Burnley will be playing just their 11th start of the "new" year. Crowd will be urging the hosts forward at every opportunity and that is just what the visitors like and want and with Danny Ings surely looking to secure himself a big move in the summer, this is a great opportunity for him to showcase his talents. 1.5 units Both teams to score 1.91-2.0 general quote, my alternative to that would have to be "over" 3 goals, the visitors are without a cleansheet in 12 away starts and have conceded two or more in 10 of those, at an average of 2.42 per game.
The 4.33 -5.0 for Burnley to score two or more also appeals of course and I have to suggets a little (0.75 units), Leicester City and Middlesbrough both did it here for us and this could easily play out similarly, Burnley will keep going for 90 minutes and sooner or later the hosts will have to tire.
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WBA to beat Aston Villa @ 3.11.
Villa have zero confidence and even less goals in them. Can't see them troubling a well-drilled defensive unit. Tony Pulis will fancy him chances against Tim Sherwood. The later have been talking a lot but has nothing to show for.Leave a comment:
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England Championship Bournemouth- Wolverhampton Wanderers
I told you how disappointed I was by Bournemouth's performance at Griffin Park recently and you can see my preview of that game below. They have lost their way, not just in terms of results, they have not won in five (including three home starts), but also in terms of what got them to the top of the table in the first place and that was not haranguing the referee at every opportunity, diving and spoling, they are, or were an attcking, free flowing team and appear to have forgotten that, when the ultimate prize was there for the taking. I am not sure how easy it will be to address, they have also won just 47% of home starts, which is the lowest of any team in the top 8 and they were held scoreless here on Saturday for the first time this season. The hosts might be without Marc Pugh tonight, who was injured at the weekend , the Cherries have lost both starts he has missed this season, conceding three in each , including here to a very goal shy Leeds United . Wolves have got their promotion push back on track after investing heavily in the transfer window and they have won their last three with a 9-0 goal difference, they were especially strong in midfield at Cardiff on Saturday, with the hugely athletic Bakary Sako back to his best and outstanding, influential Kevin MacDonald was running the show in the middle and they were able to switch off and play in second gear for much of this game with one eye firmly on tonight's fixture. at full strength and close to their best, the visitors are a match for anyone across midfield and that is where the hosts are struggling right now an this match looks to have been priced up how it should have been a month ago and a week , let alone four, is a long time in football as well as politics. 1.5 units Wolverhampton Wanderers +0.5 ball 2.20 asian line/ Sportmarket.
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England League 1 : Crawley Town - Sheffield United
Nearly all of you will know that I like United in terms of a late promotion push (see below) and they need to keep looking to win and hope that others slip up somewhere along the run in. The hosts are in trouble at the other end of the table and remain in the drop zone, but have won their last two, including away to highflying Swindon Town, by a combined 7-2 goal difference, so will be in confident mood. However, results of their last two home games have been 0-5 and 5-1 , so you can never be quite sure what you will get with Town.
Regardless of which, it is the second half stats that capture my attention, Town's home games have averaged 2.19 goals after the break and United's away starts 1.94, both of which are division high numbers. Both teams will be going all out for maximum points and whilst I might look to play "over" at the break, the current odds make plenty of appeal anyway, so let's instead use the extra 45 mnutes. 1.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.04 asian line/Sportmarket.
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The 23 Spieltag of the Bundesliga will start today.
My picks:
Hannover 96 to beat Stuttgart @ 2,25
Frankfurt to beat hsv @ 2,05Leave a comment:
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Europa League Everton- Young Boys
Ahead of the first leg I wrote .....
The visitors are concerened about the artificial playing surface at the Stade du Suisse in Berne, Young Boys laid it last summer and are a perfect 5/5 on it in Europe, with four clean sheets including 2-0 defeats of Sparta Prague and Napoli. It clearly gives them an edge, even if much of it is only in the minds of opponents, the Toffees have practiced this week on a similar surface at Widnes, but similar is not the same and if it does not react in similar fashion, it is only going to complicate matters. Young Boys are the closest challengers to Basle this season and have averaged 2.1 goals per game at home in Super League. 2.6 gpg in those five Europa League ties.They use the surface to play to their strengths, with a very well organised young team, who play at high energy and keep their shape, or perhaps it is that they have adapted their style to the surface, either way, this looks a big ask for Everton for whom the goals have dried up, just one in four starts. The visitors will be confident of a comfortable win at Goodison in the return leg and perhaps happy to come through this without injury and within a goal of Young Boys, especially if that includes a road goal for them.
That finished in a massive 4-1 win for the Toffees and we touched upon the game in the preview for their home game with Leicester City on Sunday ....
Quick turnaround for Everton who played in Berne on Thursday night, but they will be buoyed by the result there and the hat-trick for Romelu Lukaku, who has had a dry spell in the league, with only one goal in eleven starts. That was a wide open encounter and there were chances at both ends and "issues" with three of the Everton goals, which another set of officials might not have allowed. It could easily have ended 4-6 something like that and whilst I am not expecting this to be as gung ho, I do feel we will see goals.
That ended 2-2 which was ideal for us, there could have again been 6-7 goals in that game and despite being involved in a lot of low scoring encounters, Everton will respond when teams are prepared to go toe to toe and open up. This tie is over, hosts face two road games inside the next week, a trip to a hurt and wounded Arsenal on Sunday and to Stoke City on Wednesday, just six points above the drop zone, failure to pick up something from those is going to make for an uncomfortable end to the season. Tim Howard looked very rusty and far from his best at the weekend, he will keep his place, there will be rotation elsewhere, the hosts look vulnerable at the back at the visitors can only play one way which is on the front foot. They will come looking to restore some pride and one or two players will be out to impress with personal ambitions in mind. Surely goals .
1.5 units "over" 2.75 goals 2.17 asian line/Sportmarket.
1 unit Young Boys "over" 1.5 goals 3.75-4.33 general quote if you can find it.
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My picks for the CL today
Juventus Turin - Borussia Dortmund 1 @ 2,0
Manchester City - FC Barcelona 2 @ 2,05Leave a comment:
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England Football League Middlesbrough- Bolton Wanderers
This might surpise you,at least a little, I often suggest waiting for a better quote with Boro, as they can take an awfully long time to get going here on Teeside, for an example of that, which also outlines all the reasons, you can read the preview of the Charlton game from earlier this month below, 1-1 at the break there, they ran out 3-1 winners. However, tonight I expect a positively rabid showing from them from the get go, intensely hungry and desperate to get back on track after the loss to Leeds United on Saturday lunchtime.They created a LOT of chances there, but team and coach have come under fire from supporters and the local press, not least for too much rotation and they really need a big win to get everyone back on side and the players who were rested Tomlin, Bamford , Omeruo etc to at least show the benefit of that. This is a game they simply have to win. Hosts get Dimi Konstantopoulos back between the sticks after suspension.
Wanderers have had very lengthy injury problems and they have got a lot worse with two players stretched off over the weekend and now Matt Mills has picked up a suspension, they have conceded 21 goals in seven starts over the last month and if that was bad, Mills has missed only 441 minutes of action this season, through which the Trotters have conceded 15 goals, one every 29 minutes ! Time for a big Boro win 4-1 feels about right, Bolton having conceded four to each of Derby, Watford, Forest and Rotherham in the last month..... 0.5 units Middlesbrough to score over 3.5 goals @circa 6.0-7.0 might provide a little excitement if you can find it, alternatively three or more @ 3.0 makes equal appeal.
For my official bet ......1.5 units Middlesbrough -1.25 ball 2.07 asian line/Sportmarket.
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