England Cup Cardiff City - AFC Wimbledon
Dons had a very disappointing opening day home loss to Playmouth Argyle, they lost 2-0 and the visitors very quickly suuseed out the 3-4-3 formation of Wimbledon that manager Neal Ardley claims to be committed to. Even pre match Ardley said that his players "haven't properly grasped the formation yet" and heads dropped quite quickly once they fell behind and if the players do not believe, it will not work. Several of them are being asked to play unfamiliar roles and ones they were clearly unsuited to, with wingbacks lacking the pace or stamina and this very quick turnaround, playing away to a team who were in the top flight in 2014 looks a big ask and with several players in the away squad the wrong side of 30, three are in their 34th + year, the saying of old dogs and new tricks springs to mind. 3-4-3 "never" works in L2, Newport County and Bury tried it last season and quickly dumped it and I suspect that Dons will do likewise, but the coach appears adament he will stick with it in the league for now and it would seem even more foolhardy to play it on Saturday, ditch it tonight and go back to it again this weekend, but to go with it this evening against a stronger team who will have had Dons watched at the weekend, could be suicidal.
City opened with a 1-1 home draw with Fulham on saturday, they felt they deserved more and will certainly want the win tonight and get the supporters on their side ( weekend attendance was the lowest since City moved out of Ninian Park) after a very disappointing first season back in the Championship, failure to win again will be a mini disaster for them and they could do with a confidence boost ahead of back to back road games with QPR and Blackburn Rovers. The more realistic home supporters felt that this was one of the better performances in the last two seasons and one which offers real cause for optimism, fitness levels were heavily criticised last season and have clearly been addressed by boss Russel Slad over the last eight months or so, starting at the end of the last camapign and they looked so much physically stronger at the weekend and they can make this count this evening, in a match where City really need a win.
Cardiff City -1.25 goals 2.28 asian line/Sportmarket.
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England League 1: Gillingham - Sheffield United
Hosts are my big priced League 1 selection and we get an early look at their credentials today as they entertain the bookmakers favourites. Having said that, we will have 45 matches left to play after today so nothing is going to be decided either way at Priestfield, but it would be nice to start on the front foot. Gills beat United here 2-0 just six months ago courtesy of two late goals and have seriously upgraded since in my opinion, both in terms of personnel and how the club are now run under Justin Edinburgh ( see both below). I don't really have an issue with United as favourites to win League 1, they are a massive club at this level and will draw huge crowds if even moderately successful. However, odds of 5.50 do not reflect their real chance of winning the division in my opinon and they have not exactly thrilled me with their off season activity in the transfer market. They also have a new manager in Nigel Adkins and I can tell you one thing about him, he will have had the players working incredibly hard in pre season, probably harder than they have ever done previously, some will thrive on that, others will not, the ones that do will certainly benefit from it at some stage through the season, but they might well be a little "leggy" to begin with. However, pre season results have been decent so maybe they will hit the ground running, but they are very short of options in the middle of the backline and Adkins is desperate to bring at least one central defender in as soon as possible, it is a big squad now at Bramall Lane , but they are currently missing eight senior players with an average of over 25 apperances each last season, including two key figures in Brayford and Done and five who started the final play off match of last season. United arrive in confident mood, but given their injury list and that the Gills beat them here recently when United had far more to play for and that the home side have done more in terms of bringing in players since, I have to suggest a strong bet on the home side plus the handicap start.
Gillingham +0.25 ball 2.12 asian line/Sportmarket.
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Champions League Shakhtar Donetsk- Fenerbahce
These two "big" clubs were very disappointed to be paired together at this stage of the competition and the qualifying stages will be weaker for losing one of these before the playoff round, the first leg ended 0-0 ,so usually advantage Shakhtar, but tonight's match will be played in Lviv which is over 1,200 km from Donetsk and that certainly lessens their "home field" edge today, as does the lack of that all important away goal. They have been playing here for some time and will continue to do so for at least the rest of 2015 due to the conflict in the Ukraine, but their two home games this season have only been attended by a little over 2,000 supporters and whilst there will be many more this evening, it is likely that many thousands will be Fenerbahce supporters, with Istanbul being a similar distance from Lviv as Donetsk ! If this is to be an intimidating atmoshere, it is likely to be one caused by the visiting fans and the Turkish club have been repeating pleas to their supporters to "behave" all week.
Obviously, Donetsk have been operating under incredibly difficult circumstances and it was no surprise that Douglas Costa , Luiz Adriano and Fernando moved on and replacements have been very low key, with largely, only the "needy and the greedy" prepared to make the move at present. Fenerbahce brought in a host of players to strengthen their defence, including Souza and Simon Kjaer and greatly increased offensive options with the additions of Fernandao, Nani and amid much hoopla, Robin Van Persie. They have all travelled tonight, RVP made his debut from off the bench with 20 minutes to go in the first leg and had a chance to win it late, but fluffed his lines, he was said to be well short of fitness ahead of that match, but with another week under his belt he should be further along and he has it seems, asked the coach to name him in the starting eleven.The visitors can add new right back Şener Özbayraklıto the squad for the first time following his suspension.
This is a massive game for Fenerbahce, as it is for all clubs involved, but the Turkish giants have missed out on Champions League football for two years and the group stage for seven, they have invested heavily this season to correct that (goodness knows what their wage bill must be !) and have assembled the strongest squad in their history and for now, it all comes down to this. The players are on a reported bonus of 7.5m € to progress this evening and I guess that will not do any harm either.
They will be looking for that away goal that might well be enough to secure progression and have the firepower to get it and look solid enough at the back to stop the "home" side from scoring twice.
Fenerbahce +0.5 ball 2.12 asian line/Sportmarket.
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Scotland: Dundee United-Aberdeen 02/08
Last season on opening day we saw these two play in the reverse fixture, Aberdeen went into that game drained, having been eliminated from the Europa League just a couple of days previously and they lost 3-0. It did not stop them ultimately having their best season in yeras and they were the closest challengers to champions Celtic all season long and only three points adrift as late as mid March. Today we have a little bit of history repeating as the Dons again played a Europa League match on Thursday, this time having made the longest trip in European football history (and back) to play Kairat Almaty in Kazakhstan , where they lost 2-1 in very tough conditions. That was an 11,000km round trip which effectively lasted four days in terms of travel and acclimatisation, across five time zones (and back !), having already been to Macedonia and Croatia in the last month, they must be at least a little jaded and it will be hard to get "up" for today's bread and butter action.
They are focused on extending their European adventure and expended a lot of energy to get that away goal on Thursday after falling behind to two early goals and are sure to have one eye on the return leg this week. United will have been fully focused on this for weeks and will be looking for the highly energetic, upbeat performance they put in on this day last year, they also won both home games against Aberdeen and backing them with a handicap start today looks the way to go, as I am certain that the visitors would see a point as one earned rather than two lost. The hosts started last season very strongly, and were 6-1-1 and top of the SPL after eight matches and are looking for something similar this time round, they have had a "poor" pre season results wise, but have been playing top level opposition and pushed EPL side Watford very close last weekend in their final warm up game. Anyway, far from ideal prep for Aberdeen and I have to oppose them.
Dundee United +0.25 ball 2.11 asian line/Sportmarket
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New York City FC - Montreal Impact
Ahead of a recent home game with Toronto FC I wrote the following about NYCFC........
"This was meant to be the debut for Frank Lampard, but a minor knock has delayed that for another 7 days +, however, the official signing of Andrea Pirlo was announced this week and the prospect of both being available soon is a major boost both for the club and MLS football in general and neither are the type to ever give less that 100%. The starting eleven today will be fighting hard to keep their places and tickets will already have been sold with the crowd expecting to see the former EPL star and this will still be a bit of an occasion.
These two teams met three weeks ago in Ontario with NYC winning 2-0 , they were tactically very solid there, pressed incredibly well and David Villa who remains a top class striker took his two chances and to be honest, at 3-4 years younger than the other two "superstars" , he should still be playing at a higher level, he could score in MLS almost in his sleep ! Anyway, I liked that performance, defensively they allowed TFC little and dominated the match early and through the key middle part of the second half and on the road. The defence has also been tightened up with the signings of a pair of Spanish full backs in the incredibly experienced Andoni Iraloa and Angelino this week ."
They drew that 4-4 (!) and the defence is still very much a work in progress judged by that and their next home game a 5-3 defeat of Orlando City last weekend, but goals at the other end of the pitch are clearly not an issue and we saw a huge impact from Andrea Pirlo who, in just over 30 minutes of action set up any number of chances and oozed class. With another week under his belt in training and now Frank Lampard alongside him, there is going to be huge interest in this game and I do not think that any team in the MLS can handle Villa, Lamps and Pirlo at the same time, especially not an Impact side conceding at the rate of two goals per away start, even if it is only for 45-60 minutes !
New York City FC -0.5 ball 2.07 asian line/Sportmarket.
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Europa League: Athletic Bilbao - Inter Baku
Big gulf in class between these two and Inter who were only founded in 2004, have made this stage of the competition for the first time in seven attempts. They will likely be a little ahead in terms of match sharpness, given that they have already played four competitive matches in the Europa League, but that is balanced by a shorter off season and like Athletic, they have yet to begin their domestic campaign. Athletic have a history of success in this competition and Spanish clubs always treat it with respect, which is something we have discussed many times previously and seven of the last twelve winners have come from La Liga, a Champions League spot came along with Sevilla's success last season and Bilbao will know that this competition provides their "easiest" route into the premier international club competition.
Hosts are little changed from last season when they finished 7th in La Liga, following a strong finish to their campaign which saw them collect 36 points ( 1.89 pg) over the second half of the season and also make the Copa del Rey final. That form over a full season (72 points) equates very close to top 4 (Champions League level) , infact, Atletic were 4th in 13/14 with just 70 points and they will certainly enter this campaign full of optimism. They have named their strongest available squad today and it is one full of quality and only really missing Mikel Rico and hugely gifted Iker Munian, but they learned to win without the talented left winger who missed much of the end of last season and should be able to secure a big enough lead in the firts leg to make the return little more than a training game.
Although their Spainish season doesn't start for another three weeks, they are well ahead in terms of preparation as they have a two legged Super Cup match up with Barcelona up first and want to be at full speed for those games.
Athletic Bilbao -2 goals 1.84 asian line/Sportmarket.
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MLS Vancouver Whitecaps- San Jose Earthquakes
Last round San Jose were 2-0 up early, but were behind 40 minutes later and eventually lost 5-2, the two goals from Quincy Amarikwa in his second start offer hope that they can be competitive offesively this evening and they have Cato ( see above) back now and he played against Manchester United in a midweek friendly where Earthquakes were in the match for an hour ( played their starting 11 in the opening 45 mins only). They will be so much better when Wondolowski returns to action next week, but are going to have to learn to win in his absence some time. This is a tough ask for them, they have lost five straight at Vancouver and the hosts are very motivated to collect the three points which will enable them to move up to second place in the Western Conference.
This is a match Whitecaps should win and they could run in a few goals, but the hosts are very short on the left flank, with left back Jordan Harvey ( cover Sam Adekugbe injured) and left winger Cristian Techera suspended, which does give SJE, who suddenly have a few options on that side ( Cato and Nyassi) an area to exploit. Hosts have conceded in 6 of 7 home starts and might easily do so again, even against Wondo less Earthquakes.
"over" 2.5 goals 2.09 asian line/Sportmarket.
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Japan Jleague Vissel Kobe- Gamba Osaka
Cannot believe that Gamba blew yet another lead, they seem incapable of keeping a clean sheet right now, but as I said in midweek, offensively there is not a lot wrong with them and one day soon it will all click. However, they have now conceded in their last seven starts and it is not easy to see them keeping one against a Vissel Kobe side I am quite keen on and who did us a favour with a win at Vegalta Sendai last weekend, notes from which are reproduced below the "good luck" sign off. However, they have been far happier on the road all season long and they have themselves conceded in seven straight home starts. This is a fixture which usually produces goals, the last ten h2h meetings in Kobe have averaged 3.7 goals, with both teams scoring in eight, Kobe scoring 2 or more goals in five and Gamba three or more in four.
After a failure to win in midweek, Gamba are 6-2-0 next time out, scoring at least two goals in each, with six games going "over", there is 2.10-2.25 general quote for Gamba to score "over" 1.5 goals. Home coach Nelsinho named an unchanged team last weekend and reaped the benefits after chopping and changing his line up, usually due to circumstances outside of his control, far to much in Stage 1, I expect him to stick with
"over" 2.5 goals 1.95 asian line/Sportmarket.
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MLS: Real Salt Lake- Sporting KC
Big rivalry between these two and recent encounters have been "spicy" and are always very physical. To that end alone, I feel that SKC are at a disadvantage given that they have played Saturday-Tuesday- Friday over the last week and due to injury and international call ups, could barely rotate for the midweek US Open Cup game and 13 of the 14 who played against Houston in the last league game, also featured on Tuesday when they took almost an hour to get on top of the ten men of Houston, in what was an incredibly hard fought encounter. The way the match played out meant that head coach Peter Vermes felt unable to make two substitutions until injury time and this must be a team running on empty right now and I doubt a battle against a bitter rival just three days later and on the road is going to suit them. Having said that, there is nothing wrong with the form of Sporting and their only loss in 14 starts was here in Salt Lake just five weeks ago, but nine of those fixtures were at home and of the five on the road they are 1-3-1 and that sole victory aside, it is over a year since they won on the road without a goal from Zusi or Opara who are both absent this evening.
RSL are missing key players too, with Olave, Beckerman and Rimando unavailable, but they have had a free midweek to prepare solely for this and have only left Salt Lake once, for the short hop to play Colorado, in the last month and will clearly be the fresher of the two squads. They felt they played their best football of the season in the first half of the last meeting, when they really took the game to SKC and could have been 2-3 up at the break, we might well see a similarly flying start from them this evening and to be honest, I do not feel that the visitors should be favourites for this. Hosts are very strong at home and have lost just once in 26 home starts since early June last year, they pride themselves on the Rio Tinto Stadium being a fortress and with two road games up next and already six points adrift of a post season spot they see as theirs by right, this is a fixture they have to get something from.
Real Salt Lake level ball 2.02 asian line/Sportmarket.
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Mexico-Panama
Ahead of the quarter finals I wrote ......
"Like most big tournaments and in CONCACAF terms this is big, which is why Mexico rested players for the Copa, the cream usually rises to the top at the business end , the US made it through yesterday in style and I expect Mexico and Panama to join them this evening. The trio have been the three main players in the Gold Cup in recent years and whilst they have failed to overly impress this time round, all should make the last four. I am not sure that there is any value in the odds on offer for El Tri, but do feel there is a little about Panama. My notes on them ahead of their match with the US can be read below, that finished 1-1 , two day's later Trinidad drew 4-4 with Mexico to finish top of Group C. Two things about that, one it means that like Cuba yesterday, T&T come into this on 48 hours less recovery time and having had the similar tough travel schedule and secondly, I do not think that Mexico wanted to play Panama in the last eight knockout stage, having struggled with them previously and not matching up that well physically. Los Caneleros will certainly give T&T far more of a test in that department than they have had previously and this looks a good match up to my eyes for Panama, who will get defenders Machado and Henriquez back from suspension, whilst losing midfielder Anibal Godoy to another, but a plus situation overall. The extra two days to prepare are huge , especially given how the two teams play and I want to stick with Panama and take them to reach the semis for the third Gold Cup running."
Despite making hard work of things, both made it through and they are, along with the US the three top teams in the Gold Cup. I do believe that Mexico are a little fearful of Panama (as I wrote above) and the six most recent h2h meetings have all been extremely close, two draws and four wins by a single goal (two each). I see this similar to the US-Panama game in that Los Caneleros are one of the very few CONCACAF teams that do not go into match ups with the "big 2" with an inferiority complex and physically, they have an edge against the Mexicans, they won both meetings at the 2013 Gold Cup, each by a 2-1 scoreline, with all four goals coming early in each half, imposing themselves from the kickoff each time. The four goals that El Tri conceded to Trinidad and Tobago are a worry , they look good going forward, but their system and formation leaves them vulnerable at the other end of the pitch when they open up as we saw not just there, but in the Copa and it feels like this match has been priced solely on reputation as opposed to anything we have seen either in 2015 or recent meetings.
Panama +0.75 ball 2.03 asian line/Sportmarket.
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Vardar vs APOEL – back Over 1.5 goals when the odd is @1.86 and keep the bet until the end of the match.
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Elfsborg vs Randers FC – back Over 1.5 goals when the odd is @1.86 and keep the bet until the end of the match.
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Club Friendly: Boreham Wood- Brentford
This is the mighty Bees first pre season game in England, they are coming from a 12 day training camp in Portugal where they worked really hard in very hot, extremely humid conditions , similar to what they had in Florida last summer, which an already very fit team, something we have touched upon many times, really benefitted from through the season. They played one friendly there, beating Farense 3-0 using two different starting 11's in each half, Brentford have not lost anyone who was at the club last season, at least not yet, although there has been EPL interest in Jota, Gray, Button, Tarkowski, Odubajo and from elsewhere in Dallas and Diagouraga, one or more might be sold, but only if the Bees valuation is met and I can tell you it is £5m + for the first four named, the additions of Barbet, Bjelland, Kerschbaumer and McEachram amongst others have boosted an already strong squad, which you know I feel is only heading one way and finished 5th in the Championship last season. That is all I wish to say for now, plenty of Bees fans will be in the ground today for a first look at the new signings and to see if there is any hint of a change to the new coach's preferred 4-3-3 from a 4-2-3-1 they have had huge success with and for the players, it will feel like they are playing in air conditioning after the Algarve.
Brentford played pre season here in 2013 , winning 3-1, they are twice the team now and have said that most of the first team will be on show today, however, a lot of rotation during the game I guess, but huge competition for starting places and a new coach to impress, so I doubt that will matter overly.
I will, of course , speak about the new signings and backroom staff, plus any leaving players ahead of the new season.
Brentford -1 ball 2.02 asian line/Sportmarket
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MLS: New England Revolution- New York City
Last week I previewed New York City's home game with Toronto FC....
"This was meant to be the debut for Frank Lampard, but a minor knock has delayed that for another 7 days +, however, the official signing of Andrea Pirlo was announced this week and the prospect of both being available soon is a major boost both for the club and MLS football in general and neither are the type to ever give less that 100%. The starting eleven today will be fighting hard to keep their places and tickets will already have been sold with the crowd expecting to see the former EPL star and this will still be a bit of an occasion.
These two teams met three weeks ago in Ontario with NYC winning 2-0 , they were tactically very solid there, pressed incredibly well and David Villa who remains a top class striker took his two chances and to be honest, at 3-4 years younger than the other two "superstars" , he should still be playing at a higher level, he could score in MLS almost in his sleep ! Anyway, I liked that performance, defensively they allowed TFC little and dominated the match early and through the key middle part of the second half and on the road. The defence has also been tightened up with the signings of a pair of Spanish full backs in the incredibly experienced Andoni Iraloa and Angelino this week ."
They scored four times, but could only draw (!) and really need to get that backline in shape and Iraloa will be much more in tune with things today after a full week with the rest of the squad and he will surely have be able to pass on some advice to his team mates. Despite those defensive issues, they have lost just once in seven and meet a Revolution side who have lost their way, have won just once in 12 and lost five in a row, conceding two or more in each of those, how are they going to keep David Villa out for 90 minutes ! Second top scorer Patrick Mullins will be hugely motivated returning to his former club and there surely has to be goals in this for NYCFC. Hosts are without Kevin Alston , Darrius Barnes and Jermaine Jones with injury, centre back Jose Goncalves is suspended and they are left with just four available defenders to face the best striker in MLS football.
New York City +0.25 ball 2.29 asian line/Sportmarket .
I would also suggest NYCFC to score two or more goals ("over" 1.5) @ circa 2.90-3.0 general quote if you can find it.
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MLS: LA Galaxy- San Jose Earthquakes
This is the third California Clásico inside 20 days, with honours shared so far, San Jose took the first 3-1 and I previewd that at the end of last month (notes reproduced below), a few days later, Galaxy got a little revenge with a 1-0 road win in the US Open Cup, but that competition is never a priority for LA and if it was/is revenge they are looking for, it is this evening they will have in mind.
Since that win three weeks ago, Eathquakes have failed to score in three MLS starts and have looked toothless in the absence of key striker Chris Wondolowski something we touched upon ahead of the second of those games........
They put huge effort into that game and got a famous win, top scorer Chris Wondolowski got the opener there and is a massive loss tonight having since joined the national team. Also called up for Gold Cup duty is right sided midfielder Cordell Cato, a situation which is compounded as the other midfielder on that flank, Sanna Nyassi,is suspended. These are very difficuly absences to overcome especially against a team with so much offensive firepower and to have to do so following back to back games inside four days against a deadly rival and the biggest name in MLS football is too much.
They got Nyassi back last week for a home game with an even more beat up Houston Dynamo, who were missing four key players and Quakes were hugely disappointing in a 2-0 defeat. They played a friendly match with Mexican side America in midweek and had the idea of the squad playing 45 minutes each, but it back fired somewhat as they picked up an injury early and then Nyassi got sent off just before half time and they suddenly got a bit of a tough work out, spending a lot of time without the ball and a man short throughout the second period.
Galaxy were on fire offensively with 22 goals in six league and cup games, before a 1-0 defeat in the US Open in midweek away to Real Salt Lake, they were able to rest five players with today in mind and Steven Gerrard who played the second 45 minutes, is expected to see out 90 tonight in what is effectively his home debut and there is of course huge media interest in that and he and LAG will want the points to mark it. They received a further boost yesterday with the signing of Giovani dos Santos and he will join them after the Gold Cup, these are marquee signings and a clear indication of where the MLS is heading. Hosts have won 5 of 9 home games with Earthquakes, with all those wins coming by 2+ goals and if they are to get the points this evening, I feel it will be by a similarly convincing margin.
The home side are themselves hurt by international absences and a gruelling schedule, but meet a team with similar issues and without the rotation options, home advantage and big name introduction.
LA Galaxy -1.25 goals 2.13 asian line/Sportmarket.
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Concacaf Gold Cup USA vs Panama
I was quite keen on Panama coming into this tournament and ahead of their opener with Haiti wrote .............
"This will be the 13th Gold Cup, the US and Mexico have won 11 of the previous 12 between them and contested five finals including three of the last four and that is what the organisers are hoping for again this year, hence the very favourable draw for that to come about. However, Panama did make the final in 2013 , had an earlier runner up place to their name and made the semis in 2011 and quite rightly see themselves as a major contender.Los Canaleros played two matches in build up with Ecuador and appear well prepared for this event, the same cannot be said for the Haitians who have had just a single game ( 2-2 draw with China) in the last eight months and are going to "bond" as they go along, which was kind of their game plan in 2013 when they lost their opener to Honduras 2-0. They do have a little talent in the team, notably Jeff Louis of Standard Liege, who long term readers might recall I was very keen on whilst he was at Nancy, but they look to match up poorly to me against the very athletic and experienced Panama squad. Ten of their players have 50 + caps and they have three very prolific frontmen in Gabriel Torres, Luis Tejada and especially Blas Perez who is going to be very much at home here with the FC Dallas striker playing in his home stadium tonight. He is extremely strong and good in the air and has a bit of a reputation for being physical and if Panama can isolate him against one or two of the smaller defenders and there are several, that could produce big dividends."
Panama did largely dominate that game and then again "blew" a lead against the Hondurans and have led for 90 minutes in total across the two matches. They have not seen out the final 20 minutes that well in either game, but I feel that will be less of a concern this evening, the US have scored all their three goals in the first hour or so and will not be overly pressing late in this game with so little at stake for them and with another three matches to play. Head coach Jurgen Klinsmann rotated heavily, especially at the back between the first two games and will surely do so again this evening. Panama have a decent record against the US in Gold Cup competition, they have lost three of the six meetings , but all by a single goal and they have a win and two draws in the other three and getting odds against and half our money back with a one goal defeat about a team with all the motivation looks the way to go, but not a day I want to get overly involved in, so ............
Panama +0.75 ball 2.14 asian line/Sportmarket.
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